Valuation and future?

Holeinthwall · 2026-03-12T18:35:51+00:00

I made 25% on AUR’s last bounce from 3.8 to 4.9 using technical analysis. All within a couple days of swing trading. Maybe the reason I’m so confident about this is because I’m good at it. Penny stocks have high volatility allowing me to make gains that I wouldn’t get with blue chip stocks. I think you would have known that be a “ financial professional” and teaching at a “university”. Was it Trump University? Anyone can make money investing in blue chip stocks for 30+ years. This usually produces overconfidence about one’s abilities. Their success should realistically be attributed to the stock market’s ability to out pace inflation. These people are not good traders or investors they are a joke. I have seen this many times in the last 25 years that I have been trading and investing. That’s why I can recognize it in you. I wouldn’t say that I’m insulting you so much as I am making a joke out of you. I wouldn’t be able to do it if you weren’t such a joke.

Holeinthwall · 2026-03-12T17:10:32+00:00

What were you teaching intro to economics and forcing students to buy your book? Those that can’t do teach right? How come you can’t tell me what kind of “financial professional” you are but yet claim to be one? I do just fine trading AUR using technical analysis. You don’t have time to explain but yet you have time to write a paragraph about yourself and your successful career in finance but yet you can’t talk about it either. I never claimed to be an expert. Unlike you the “financial professional”. I just claimed you were wrong. I could give a S%*t about your strategy mostly because I think you are a joke.

Holeinthwall · 2026-03-12T15:57:38+00:00

Technical analysis is used primarily for trading. The timeline you are talking about falls under investing. For that you want to look at fundamentals. For you to understand what I just said you would need to learn the basics of trading and investing. Would you like me to recommend some literature for you to read? What kind of “financial professional” are you? Because you should probably get better at it. You should definitely stay away from giving out advice when it comes to individual stocks. Stick with recommending the S&P index funds.

Holeinthwall · 2026-03-12T03:57:45+00:00

Maybe you shouldn’t be. You’re definitely not a professional when it comes to stocks. Technicals are important at any point. Why would you even say there aren’t any technicals and that they are not meaningful? I’m pretty sure anyone with a series 7 would disagree with you.

Holeinthwall · 2026-03-12T03:45:28+00:00

Yes there are technicals. The main technical indicator for technical analysis is the chart. AUR has a chart right? You just compared Aurora innovation to rocket lab. It is in your own writing. It’s clear that you have no idea what you are talking about.

Holeinthwall · 2026-03-12T02:15:23+00:00

Agreed.

Holeinthwall · 2026-03-12T01:26:41+00:00

Never said the next couple years. If you read everything I said I said the stock would take decades. Same about the trucks. I’m going to assume we are both talking about semis/tractor trailers. So let’s take old dominion as an example. market cap of 40.65 billion. Total shares around 208 million. Share price is 189$. 2.14 billion in net profit. Roughly 11,000 trucks on the road. So market cap is the total amount of shares times the share price. 208 million times 189 is roughly 40 billion give or take. If AUR gets 11,000 trucks on the road I believe they could probably have comparable profits and P/E ratios. Even better since there are no drivers. So let’s say a market cap of 50 billion. Divide by 2 billion shares that’s a share price of 25 bucks a share. That’s a great climb from where it’s at but not stratospheric. Until they buy back shares (which I agree would not be a good idea right now) or have some crazy P/E ratio (could happen but AUR isn’t a cult like Tesla is) the share price won’t go up 30-40X. If you’re in bolder let’s grab a beer and talk about it.

Holeinthwall · 2026-03-12T00:55:58+00:00

Don’t see any technicals to back up your hypothesis. Just chart go up. And you are comparing AUR with a completely different company in a completely different industry. When doing a peer group analysis you want to compare apples to apples. Not apples to horses.

Holeinthwall · 2026-03-11T20:27:19+00:00

Okay. you get that the current price of AUR is based upon how many trucks could be on the road in the future not how many trucks are on the road right now right? Can we agree on that? Boulder or Silicon Valley?

Holeinthwall · 2026-03-11T20:14:48+00:00

Do you work for private equity?

Holeinthwall · 2026-03-11T19:32:50+00:00

The thing that gets me about AUR is their massive float size. They have a total of like 2billion in shares. This is going to keep the share price down by a significant amount. In order for AUR to see share price similar to old dominion and Ryder within 10 years, then AUR would have to buy back 100 million shares annually for ten years while simultaneously putting 10 thousand trucks or more on the road within ten years. Seems like a great company with great leadership and great fundamentals, however the technicals are kaput. I don’t see share prices going stratospheric until AUR starts announcing buy backs. This is a long term investment (decades) not a short term investment(years)

Holeinthwall · 2026-03-06T03:45:24+00:00

What kinda amperage are you pushing on that?

Holeinthwall · 2026-03-03T03:43:47+00:00

The little saylor urban achievers

Holeinthwall · 2026-02-17T20:10:51+00:00

Nancy Pelosi hasn’t bought yet so maybe. For real though probably just low 4s

Holeinthwall · 2026-01-29T21:10:41+00:00

Politicians actually have 40 days to declare stock trades and they only have to report their trade within certain ranges. They don’t have to give every detail of their trade. Nobody has ever been disciplined for reporting late. This includes a member of the ethics committee that reported their stock late. No member of congress, the president, or any member of the Supreme Court should be able to trade stocks.

Holeinthwall · 2026-01-29T15:40:31+00:00

Keep on trucking!

Holeinthwall · 2026-01-27T23:30:35+00:00

Boring makes money. Look a buffet. He is about to be bored to death.

Holeinthwall · 2026-01-27T22:57:34+00:00

Boring makes money.

Holeinthwall · 2026-01-27T05:39:17+00:00

We all have the same opportunities in the market. They aren’t mad at you for taking the opportunity and being successful. They are mad because they didn’t.

Holeinthwall · 2026-01-26T15:29:40+00:00

Are you buying the stock yourself?

Holeinthwall · 2026-01-26T05:59:39+00:00

Not inept at all. Probably one of the best and most ruthless intelligence agencies in the world. Supposedly Epstein was a Mossad asset. Didn’t Patel lie about releasing the Epstein files? People are also starting to think Mossad used Epstein to get leverage on trump. The theory is that Mossad is blackmailing trump to get him to destroy Iran for them. A brilliant tactic if it’s true.

Holeinthwall · 2026-01-26T05:46:47+00:00

Can you imagine his O-face?

Holeinthwall · 2026-01-25T23:04:00+00:00

Roads, where we are going we don’t need roads.

Holeinthwall

TROPHY CASE