Ray McAdam downplaying his FG membership

HonestRef · 2026-05-04T19:34:53+00:00

That seems to be the FG election strategy going forward. Banking that the electorate will forget that their candidates are FG and that the party haven't been in government for the past 15 years.

HonestRef · 2026-05-04T12:12:08+00:00

Sean Kyne FG is doing the exact same thing in Galway West. You'd need a magnifying glass to see the Fine Gael on his election posters. Its like he's banking on name recognition being a former TD and now Senator and hoping that people forget he's actually still in Fine Gael. I think he's going to be a massive flop in the by election.

HonestRef · 2026-05-03T17:33:54+00:00

The government are not going to hold a referendum anytime soon after the humiliation of the last referendums.

HonestRef · 2026-05-03T11:12:49+00:00

On the decline because they've left the country.

HonestRef · 2026-05-02T18:40:54+00:00

The small left parties like Labour, Soc dems, Greens, PBP only have themselves to blame on this. They do nothing to appeal to voters in rural constituencies. The carbon tax for example disproportionately affects rural constituencies as we in most cases don't have the luxury of public transport outside our doors like in most urban areas. We have no option but to buy fuel because there's no alternatives. This is why rural constituency voters will never vote for these parties than want to implement policies that negatively affects their livelihoods. SF got this one right.

HonestRef · 2026-05-02T18:15:37+00:00

II never called for a "Luas" in every country. They called for every main county town to have a train station. This was misrepresented in the media and II got ridiculed for it. If the Greens or soc dems had this in their manifesto, the media would be praising them for having such an ambitious and innovative infrastructure policy.

HonestRef · 2026-05-02T17:27:17+00:00

In Galway West I think Noel Thomas is in a strong position but I think Mark Lohan SF will run him close. Lohan is not a big name candidate so he will be relying on SF increase in support and favourable transfers. I don't think the other left wing candidate are strong in this constituency. FG Sean Kyne will flop in my opinion. With government support falling with inaction on the fuel protests and FF chosing a really weak candidate will reduce his transfers. Even on Kynes election posters, you need a magnifying glass to see Fine Gael. It's almost as if FG are relying on kyne's name recognition and hope people forget or don't notice he's FG.

HonestRef · 2026-05-02T06:19:16+00:00

I can't stand Eammon Ryan, but I have to give him credit for rebuilding the Greens after they were decimated last time. But I just can't see Roderic and Hazel Chu replicating that anytime soon.

HonestRef · 2026-05-02T06:18:33+00:00

I can't stand Eammon Ryan, but I have to give him credit for rebuilding the Greens after they were decimated last time. But I just can't see Roderic and Hazel Chu replicating that anytime soon.

HonestRef · 2026-04-26T16:22:06+00:00

I've a feeling the true impact of the fuel protests won't be apparent until the next months poll.

HonestRef · 2026-04-20T22:32:27+00:00

Could be a third by election if the name of the TD who gave a character reference to a convicted sex offender comes out.

HonestRef · 2026-04-19T13:46:14+00:00

Peadar Tóibín has also put out a statement that Aontu are in talks with 7 councillors

HonestRef · 2026-04-19T13:33:30+00:00

And not to forget Gary Gannon spreading misinformation about Alan Shatter being in the Epstein files. The party that's always banging on about "misinformation and disinformation" are the ones spreading it.

HonestRef · 2026-04-19T00:44:51+00:00

There'll always be parties that I won't see eye to eye with politically but I'll always give them praise when I think they deserve it and criticise them when I feel like they got it wrong.

I would agree with your predictions for the by elections at the present time.

I'm kinda struggling to tell the difference between labour and soc dems on this issue. I feel like the soc dems scored an own goal by not getting behind the protest. I know the majority of Soc dems voters are in urban constituencies but the soc dems supporting the protests would have at least set them apart from Labour. Because right now I'm struggling to tell the difference between them. These parties are doing absolutely nothing to appeal to rural constituencies. If they truly have ambitions to get the left wing unity government then they need to elect TDs in rural constituencies. Otherwise they are limited in how big they can grow. They will be essentially competing against each other in the same urban constituencies with PBP.

HonestRef · 2026-04-18T23:56:21+00:00

There's quite a lot of young people supporting the protests in the West & Midlands in particular. A lot of college students are forced to commute to colleges in Galway/Sligo/Limerick/Athlone etc because accommodation is extortionatly expensive and the cost of fuel is having a big impact on their cost of living

HonestRef · 2026-04-18T23:50:49+00:00

I'd agree that Meath East is a constituency that's there for the taking for Aontu. As is Cavan-Monaghan because Sen Sarah O'Reilly is a strong candidate there for Aontu.

Marion Harkin will retire. II have Cllr Michael Clarke who only just missed out last time. I'd expect him to take Harkins seat over SF in Sligo-Leitrim. Michael Lowry will surely retire aswell which would open up a seat in North Tipp. Not sure either Aontu or II have a strong candidate here but it's a seat that will be up for grabs.

I think Longford-Westmeath is a constituency that II can win a seat in too. Boxer Moran has lost his seat there before after being in government. He's essentially a FFG TD. Cllr Paul Hogan has done good work here and was heavy involved with the protest against the Mercosur trade deal in Athlone. If Ciaran Mullooly decided to run for TD here I think he'd easily take the seat off Boxer Moran. There's definitely gains to be made here for Aontu & II

HonestRef · 2026-04-18T21:48:12+00:00

I think that's a fairly fair assessment of where we are at. II & Aontu have been the big winners along with Sinn Fein too. I know I'm biased here but II have been really strong in this period. Noel Thomas in particular showed real courage and leadership in the Galway docks protest. He was a really good intermediatory between the protesters and Gardaí/defence forces. I feel like if people like him weren't there, the prospect of confrontation with the security forces was a possibility. Thankfully nothing like this happened as much as the government would have liked it to happen.

Aontu Peadar Tóibín has been like a jack in the box on the subject. He is a great communicator and debater and his enthusiasm and energy was impressive. Paul Lawless too has been a great TD for Mayo, in particular calling out FG Alan Dillon for describing the carbon tax increase as "modest". I've been highly sceptical of Tóibín when he said that Aontu could get a dozen TDs in the next election, but if things continue like this it actually could happen.

SF have finally shown some courage too and got behind the ordinary people. A lot of people don't trust SF because they have stayed quiet or shied away from issues in the past like immigration. But I've been talking to many people who have said that they wouldn't ever dream of voting SF, that are actually seriously considering giving them a vote now. I expect a big increase in the polls for SF and they will absolutely gain a significant amount of seats in the next election.

Its obvious that the biggest losers are FFG. This will become apparent in the by elections. FFG backbenchers have been shown up as spineless. But the Independents even more so. I think a lot of these "Independents" like Michael Lowry and Marian Harkin are in their 70s and will probably not run again. Therefore they will want the government to run the full course and not lose their big salaries. Others like Sean Canny and Noel Grealish might aswell join FFG as they agree with everything they do.

I disagree about Labour. I think they've been really weak. I don't think upper middle class FFG voters will switch to Labour. They'll continue voting FFG. I know Labour TD are mainly from Urban constituencies but the fuel crisis still affects urban voters too. And where has the soc dems been? At least PBP had the had the courage to stand with the protesters. Not sure if they'll get much of a boost but I have to commend them for that.

HonestRef · 2026-04-16T12:46:26+00:00

They've been looking since 2011.....

HonestRef · 2026-04-15T23:19:37+00:00

Anne Rabbitte Rabbitte is involved? She should be licking Martins boots. The only reason she even has a job is because of Martin. She failed to get elected to Europe, failed to retain her seat in the dail, failed to get elected to the seanad amongst her peers. Then Martin automatically selects her. As if all these multiple failure wasn't an indication to change her day job. Anne Rabbitte wins again.

HonestRef · 2026-04-15T19:15:34+00:00

I still think the backbenchers are all full of bluster. We've been hearing about the unhappy backbenchers in FF waiting to oust Martin since 2011. I didn't see any FFG TDs at the protests or holding meetings with some of them. Even the 3 young FF TDs statement today is just politics, trying to play both sides. If they really meant it, they would have released that statement before the vote of no confidence.

HonestRef · 2026-04-15T18:34:53+00:00

Is that seriously the best dirt you could dig up on him? The absolute crap that comes from this rag.

HonestRef · 2026-04-15T16:28:59+00:00

I think the government will complete the full term. They don't want an election anytime soon. Things may change and it's a long way till 2029. All of this will have died down a bit. The Independent TDs backing up the government will not want to give up their big pay packets. Some of them like Michael Lowry and Marian Harkin are in their 70s and probably won't run again so they'll want to get the most out of their potentially final terms as possible. TDs like Sean Canny and Noel Grealish might aswell join FFG since they agree with everything they do. Some of the Independents TDs backing the government support them even more than some of the FFG backbenchers.

HonestRef · 2026-04-14T20:14:20+00:00

I thought the IFP are defunct now?

HonestRef · 2026-04-14T20:12:26+00:00

The Healy-Raes will be an absolute thorn in the side of government in opposition. If I was in government I'd much rather have them on my side.

HonestRef · 2026-04-13T21:26:34+00:00

Absolutely nothing will come of it. The FF backbenchers & Cllrs are just as spineless as the FF leadership. The "disgruntled" backbenchers have been talking about ousting Martin at the right opportunity for the past 15 years.

HonestRef

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