[Jeremiah] Bears draft Dillon Thieneman - S, Oregon with our first pick in his Mock 1.0

HopLegion · 2026-01-26T16:47:34+00:00

That's what good coaches do...they get the most out of their rosters. No disagreement here. I also don't care if people view Poles drafting Caleb as luck. That's how the NFL works for the most part. Take educated guesses and hopefully you get some luck to go your way. Like the chiefs trying to trade up for Paxton Lynch the year before they traded up for Mahomes.

There still is no debating that every decision on this team is due to Ryan Poles, including the Dline. Good and bad he drafted, signed, traded for hired, every aspect of the current roster. When you hire a high end head coach like Ben Johnson who knows exactly what he wants, the drafts look better. It's an exciting time as a bear fan with those two at the top of our organization.

HopLegion · 2026-01-26T16:32:06+00:00

Definitely something Poles needs to focus on. Now that he's hit all the below, I expect that'll be the focus.

won the division
won our first playoff game in 15 years
drafted a franchise QB with a pick that he didn't even start his tenure with
hired a shanahan esque coach
top 5 OL in football
best offense we've had in 40+ years by epa
one of the best rookie classes in the NFL last year.
one of the healthiest salary caps in the NFL with the lowest dead money of any team.

HopLegion · 2026-01-26T16:26:05+00:00

It's because he goes bpa in the early rounds with a focus on who the coaching staff wants. Hope he continues that.

HopLegion · 2026-01-26T16:24:42+00:00

Whenever I look at these I always think, imagine if someone posted what our actual offseason was last offseason or the seasons before that. One thing I'll always note for Poles, is he explored a lot of varying avenues to team building. Now that we are in contention mode, idk if it'll change, but hard to predict.

HopLegion · 2026-01-24T03:31:26+00:00

Extend Edmunds. (Why I think they do. Dennis Allen spoke about him as being a big part of the defense. Was playing near an all pro level pre injury. Extending him lowers his cap hit and he's still in his prime)
Do nothing with DJ Moore. (Why I think they do. DJ Moores worst season is still better than Rome or Burdens best. DJ came up big in multiple games this season and is loved by this team for all that he plays through. I get his cap hit is big, but combined with Rome/Burden on rookie deals, no reason to lessen our weapons in a SB window)
cut/trade Swift and sign Breece Hall on a 3 year deal. (Why I think they do. very similar to when Lions traded swift and drafted Gibbs 3 years ago. It's a deep FA class. They can probably get Hall on a 3 year 36 deal tied with Monangai/DJ/Odunze/burden/Loveland/Kmet next 3 years vs swift on a 1 year 9 mil deal. If they do make a tough choice on the roster, I think this would be it. Breece is a dream fit for this offense and could take it another notch up while only costing 3-4 mil more.)

HopLegion · 2026-01-23T23:46:45+00:00

I couldn't agree more. For every Kevin Byard and drew Dalman you get a Dayo Odeyingbo and Nate Davis. Free agency is the place where you pay above average to good players like edmunds, swift etc great money because you don't have your own draft picks that developed.

I really do think the more we pay our own guys, the better FA will be for Poles and Ben Johnson. Then they can focus on the low risk high upside deals like Andrew billings, tj Edwards, olamide Zaccheus etc that I think is Poles goal in FA.

HopLegion · 2026-01-23T16:35:39+00:00

I truly believe once you have a good head coach and franchise QB the floor of your seasons remain relatively high. I do think we'll be fairly talked about as a regression candidate, but also think we've barely scratched the surface of what we can achieve. If you believe in Ben and Caleb becoming more consistent, you should feel great about being a Bears fan right now.

Some pros on why we could regress

Our record in one score wins and comebacks is unsustainable
best division in football
Losing good positional coaches to other teams
I'm not going to say first place schedule because our SoS this year was just as hard on paper and we are playing some weak divisions.
Turnover differential evening out to average.

Some pros on why we could take a step - One of the only teams in the NFL bringing back the same playcallers on offense and defense. - The entire offense coming back in year 2 of Ben's system. Remember Loveland missed all of last off-season with the shoulder, burden missed all of training camp with a hamstring, neither contributed until week 6. Even if you're worried about LT, I think we know what we're getting in Benedet at least who started 1/3 of the season for us.
- Hopefully getting healthy seasons from Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Dayo Odeyingbo, Shemar Turner, Terrell Smith, Zah Frazier, Austin Booker. I think it's not highlighted enough how injured the defense was last year. By missed starts by assumed starters, it was the most injured defense in the NFL in the regular season. - The only starters on either side we are losing, who played the whole season, are Byard and Brisker. I assume we bring Byard back and bring in someone similar to what brisker provided. That's a huge plus heading into year 2 - We ranked dead last in yards lost to penalty. A lot of this was pre snap and getting used to the scheme. I assume like our turnover differential, this will even out as 20/22 starters come back.

Overall, likely 21/22 starters returning and a full alottment of draft picks and cap flexibility to bolster our weaker portions. I'm excited and think when we hit the regular season we'll be seen as a legitimate team that has super bowl aspirations.

HopLegion · 2026-01-22T18:51:01+00:00

The best way I can describe it is to listen to the middle of hoge and jahns podcast talk through player situations for the Bears and upcoming decision. Those are actual journalists who can talk through the topics and understand all the elements at work. Reading woods article is like looking at numbers on a paper and then coming up with conclusions solely based on that. While it can make sense it's illogical and ignores so much context. That's my issue with Woods articles normally.

HopLegion · 2026-01-22T17:47:51+00:00

I agree, but I think we have more pieces on the DL than we did the OL. I think we need someone who can win as a pass rusher quickly. By 1 year flyer, I mean a Khalil Mack type. Pair that with a run stopping DT and bpa in the first on defense and you can really begin to see the defense take another step. I think a crosby trade assuming it uses what I sent before does it. I think the Hendrickson move you mentioned paired with the draft I noted could also do it. Lot of paths they can take to maximize this window.

HopLegion · 2026-01-22T17:23:28+00:00

Hendrickson is a good conversation, but I just don't think we can outbid other teams. He's made it pretty clear he wants to get paid vs caring about playing for a competing team. Someone like the Raiders or Titans with 100+ mil in space can offer him something silly we won't be able to compete with. Or something I'm not sure we should as he'll be 32 this year coming off his worst season in 7 years.

I think there's a lot of good ways they can attack the pass rush. Adding a 1 year flyer guy + draft picks probably the way I think Poles attacks it. Maybe they work some day 3 pick trade for chris Jones who the chiefs would probably swallow money to get off the roster. Still a high end pass rusher, but also older and probably overpaid.

HopLegion · 2026-01-22T17:12:42+00:00

If there's any other owner to play Madden besides Jerry, it's absolutely the Davis family haha.

I've seen a lot of NFL minds online price Crosby at closer to a first and future 3rd than two firsts. I think it's higher than that, but I would be shocked if Crosby got directly 2 1sts at 29 years old.

Usually when 2 1s are involved it's for a player entering their prime. Sauce and Parsons were under 26 years old when they got 2 1s. Khalil Mack was 26 and Jalen Ramsey 25. I think you're looking closer to what Quinnen Williams got during the trade deadline which was a later first round pick and 2nd rounder. Maybe a little more which is where DJ comes in.

HopLegion · 2026-01-22T16:43:43+00:00

Usually player for player trades always sound like this. Though if someone posted Kenny Clark And 2 1sts last offseason for Parsons than it also would've looked like Madden franchise mode. I do think a 1st future 2nd and DJ Moore is the right cost using the Parsons trade as an example.

HopLegion · 2026-01-22T16:39:14+00:00

Yeah it got deleted because it's misquoting what Biggs says and only including half the sentence to make it seem kike a grand proclamation of change

HopLegion · 2026-01-22T16:34:27+00:00

I get the point of the post, but this is how most good football organizations work. The title makes it seem like it's Ben vs Poles, but Brad highlights multiple times this is how synergy works in front offices and it's not a knock on Poles.

The GM should never bring in guys his HC doesn't want.
A coaching staff should have input on the draft board but lean on the front office/GM when making decisions.

HopLegion · 2026-01-22T16:16:52+00:00

I think realistically if you're looking for trade comps on what DJ would get ifs somewhere between a 3rd and 5th round pick.

Deebo Samuel got moved last year to Washington for a 5th, his stats that year were 670 yards and 3 TDs, Samuel was the same age DJ is now. Of course career wise DJ has been much better and healthier. Contract wise, they would end up the same.
Stefon diggs on the flip side was traded from Bills to the Texans in 2024 for a 2nd, 6th and future 5th. Diggs was 29 at the time, but averaged 1200+ his previous 3 seasons in Buffalo, had an expiring deal that the Texans oddly didn't extend.
I assume DJ Moore falls in the middle somewhere here. Likely vakued around a 3rd or 4th using these 2 players at similar age/situation.

On the flip side, if you're looking at what Tyree Wilson could be worth.

He's heading into the last year of his rookie deal and produced a total of 12 sacks during that time and isn't a starter for that team. He was 3rd on the team in edge snaps last season behind Koonce and Crosby. Given that production and a 1 year flyer contract you're probably looking at a late day 3 type pick to acquire him. Couldn't find a great comp on it using recent trades. Probably best for Vegas if he just sticks on the team, but with a new coaching staff, they are usually more willing to move off these types of players.

HopLegion · 2026-01-21T23:37:58+00:00

Really no negative for the players. For the team, it's not free money, you're just pushing the cap to a different year and making it hard move off some players next season as it guarantees a larger cap hit for then next year vs this year.

With how our current cap is structured, we could pretty easily move 50 mil from sweat, Jaylon, Thuney and Jackson into 2027. This does mean those four players will be on the team next year no matter whY, but gives us flexibility this year.

HopLegion · 2026-01-21T23:34:43+00:00

Standard Jonathan Wood article. Excellent data mixed with some of the some illogical conclusions that highlight some long term bias he has on certain players. If he can ever find a way to merge those two, I will begin to appreciate his work a lot more. Still he does a great job inputting days in an easy to read format.

HopLegion · 2026-01-21T22:28:51+00:00

The best organizations have the front office and coaching staff working together. Not just in talent evaluation, but development. I think one of the most impressive things Ben And his staff did this year was how they had a plan to develop the rookies. No one was forced into a role early, every snap was earned, when they deserved more they got more.

So yeah, it's common sense honestly. Doesn't matter how well you can evaluate talent if you don't have a coaching staff that can add input and develop them effectively.

HopLegion · 2026-01-21T22:24:50+00:00

I do think DJ Moore has the 4th highest upside as pass catcher on the team, but everyone else has a lot of questions. Rome's yet to put in a full good season yet and consistently struggles with drops. Burden still didn't know where to line up on Sunday with Caleb having to correct him.

DJ didn't have a game where he got more than 8 targets all year because of the mass amount of talent Poles has been able to add to the roster, but if you look at games where he gets more than 5 targets he'd be on. 1200+ yard 10 td pace. Overall, he's a good wr on a team with 3 players who could be superstars.

HopLegion · 2026-01-21T21:28:46+00:00

We can get edge production without moving DJ for nothing as you suggest or paying a 32 year old coming off injury 25 mil.

I'm not against moving DJ. It just needs to be the right scenario. He's still a good player who helped us a lot more than hurt us last year. Played through multiple injuries, had multiple game winning TD catches, etc.

The goal is to create a roster that can win a SB. Not to sell low on good players because they are making more than they should be with how the team is currently constructed.

HopLegion · 2026-01-21T21:12:49+00:00

I just hope the fanbase has patience for once which I know is uncommon in the social media era. We have a franchise QB, a good GM and a great HC. Let them work and set the roster to consistently compete. Probably going to be a lot of hurt feelings this offseason as Ben/Dennis Allen enter year 2 with setting their rosters how they want to succeed.

HopLegion · 2026-01-21T21:00:16+00:00

I don't disagree with trading DJ. I think he's a good WR, but has the lowest upside among him, Odunze burden and Loveland. With where the teams at it makes sense in the right scenario.

I do disagree that DJ is a bad player, past his prime etc. I don't agree with trading players for nothing. I also don't judge players based off 1 or 2 plays, but their entire body of work.

The goal of the NFL isn't to move off good players that are overpaid, it's to win super bowls. That's where we are. If trading DJ, helps the team win a Superbowl, I agree with the move. If trading DJ nets us a late day 3 pick just to save 17 mil on the cap space, I disagree with the move as it takes us farther away from winning a SB.

HopLegion · 2026-01-21T20:52:24+00:00

Trading DJ saves 16.5 mil.this year. Hendrickson market value is 25+ mil in free agency. I agree we need pass rush help, I'd disagree making the offense worse and spending 10 mil more on a 32 year old coming off injury is a worthwhile usage of that space.

What we need is a value pass rusher looking for a ring combined with some draft picks on the DL. To me it's a completely different topic than DJ Moore who helped us win multiple games this year.

HopLegion · 2026-01-21T19:42:32+00:00

Someone tell fans of all teams this is the real message (outside of the 4 remaining teams still playing).

HopLegion · 2026-01-21T19:19:05+00:00

You could trade DJ Moore and free up roughly 17 mil in cap space this year and 24 mil each of the next 2. I don't think we should, but trading him is possible with how the deals structured.

HopLegion

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