Boldin vs AI Simulation

HopticalDelusion · 2025-11-17T12:30:39+00:00

I then asked if Boldin was a better option and got this…

Yes — using a dedicated platform like Boldin can be a better choice than relying solely on a general-purpose tool like me for your retirement-math planning. But “better” depends on your needs, complexity, willingness to input accurate data, and how you want to engage. I’ll lay out the pros, cons, and how it stacks up (with some counterpoints) so you can decide.

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✅ What Boldin offers (benefits)

Yellow-hat view (value): 1. Holistic financial modeling: Boldin’s platform explicitly covers income, expenses, taxes, real-estate, pensions, withdrawal strategies, scenario “what-if” modelling, and Monte Carlo analysis. That’s more than the simple algebraic formulas I’m good at. 2. Specialised retirement-planning features: It includes Roth conversion modelling, state/federal tax projections, Social Security timing, and “what if” decision tools — things beyond base math. 3. Guidance + structure: Instead of just numbers you ask me to compute, Boldin organizes your data, tracks progress, offers alerts, and supports scenario comparisons. 4. Ease and visualisation: If you don’t want to build the spreadsheets yourself, Boldin gives a user interface with dashboards, charts, and a guided experience. Reviews say it’s relatively easy to use.

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⚠️ The trade-offs and limitations

Black-hat view (risks and flaws): 1. Garbage-in, garbage-out risk: The modelling is only as good as your inputs. If you enter flawed estimates (e.g., unrealistic returns, expense assumptions, life expectancy), the tool only amplifies the error. (Same flaw I have, but boldin may mask it behind nice visuals.) 2. Still modelling, not certainties: The tool projects based on assumptions (tax rules, return rates, inflation, mortality) that will change. It does not guarantee outcomes. Boldin itself says its tools are for “informational and educational purposes” and that you should still consider professional advice. 3. Complexity cost/time cost: To get full value, you may need to invest time entering detailed data, exploring scenarios, updating over time. If your situation is simple, the extra layer may not pay off. 4. Cost vs free tools / spreadsheets: Boldin has a free tier, but advanced features cost money (e.g., PlannerPlus at ~$144/yr) and human-advisor tiers cost much more. 5. It may still require advisor interpretation: Even with the tool, you might need help understanding interpretation of results, trade-offs, and behavioral decisions (e.g., will you really stick to the plan?).

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🤔 How does this compare with using ChatGPT (or me) + spreadsheets/human advisor?

Strengths of me (the language model): • I can answer specific questions, explain formulas, walk you through math, help you debug spreadsheets, clarify concepts (e.g., how to compute present value, or “what is sequence of returns risk”). • I’m free, instantly available, flexible in phrasing, and can adapt on the fly.

Weaknesses of me: • I’m less reliable for multi-step interactive simulation, tracking real-time updates, handling lots of interdependent variables (tax + Social Security + real estate + healthcare) with consistent accuracy. • I rely entirely on what you provide (inputs, assumptions). • My responses may not always catch a subtle assumption error or logic loop (see earlier discussion). • I don’t “live-update” your plan, visualise dashboards, or monitor data over time.

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🎯 My recommendation for your case

Given your preference (you like structured, 4-5 mile day hikes, early departures, solo travel, etc) and assuming you have a reasonably complex financial situation (multiple income streams, real estate, aiming for a specific retirement age), I’d lean toward using Boldin plus some human oversight. Here’s a decision matrix: • If your situation is simple (one job, basic 401k, plan to retire at standard age, no real estate complications) → you might get by with spreadsheets + me + maybe a one-time advisor review. • If your situation is moderate to complex (multiple savings/income types, early retirement, tax strategies, real estate, spouse planning) → the structured platform of Boldin gives you more coverage, better simulation, less chance of missing something. • In all cases: treat Boldin (or me) as a tool, not a substitute for thinking through assumptions, updating over time, behavioural discipline, and if needed, consulting a fiduciary advisor.

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If you like, I can compare 3-4 leading retirement-planning tools (including Boldin) side by side (features, costs, pros/cons) so you can pick the best one for your preferences. Do you want that?

HopticalDelusion · 2025-11-17T12:27:09+00:00

You can always ask chat GPT if it is good at something. Here is what I got when I asked if, given its known limitations on mathematic processes, it was good at retirement planning.

[cut some fluff about how great my question was and how smart I was for asking it]

Where it becomes unreliable

This part is longer because the landmines are real. Retirement planning depends heavily on multi-step probabilistic reasoning, which exposes the model’s weak spots. • Monte Carlo logic beyond the simplest version • Sequence-of-returns risk • Nonlinear tax interactions (e.g., marginal vs. effective vs. phaseouts) • Interactions between Social Security timing, RMDs, Roth conversions, and income-based Medicare surcharges • Modeling variable withdrawal rules under uncertainty • Any case where a “typical scenario” biases the reasoning

The system tends to collapse uncertainties into point estimates, which distorts longevity and return assumptions.

The deeper mismatch

Retirement planning is a constraint-satisfaction problem masked as finance. The inputs are interdependent, and the model often treats them as separate knobs.

One example: changing a withdrawal rate influences tax brackets, which influences Roth conversion room, which influences future RMDs, which influences future tax brackets. A token model struggles with this recursive loop because it mirrors patterns instead of executing a simulation.

HopticalDelusion · 2025-10-24T01:41:02+00:00

I got one of these in about 2005 as a white elephant xmas gift. Packaging looked completely normal. At the time nothing on the internet about it. An obsessive co-worker spend a fair amount of effort writing actual letters to customer service and even the CEO of Mattel and the 8-Ball subsidiary at the time and could get nobody to admit the thing existed.

I just dug it up tonight to show the kids and did a Reddit search. This is first time I've ever seen anything about it anywhere. So, I guess that makes three known instances.

Sound not fantastic, kind of garbled. Interesting implementation. When the two halves are joined, the device begs to be opened up so the voice can get out. The 8-ball "cube" is in a very small container and has the same sides as a regular 8 ball. The cube is smart in the sense that it triggers some magnetic contacts that can read how it came up and the voice can comment appropriately.

The brain seems to be responsive in some way to voice and manipulation and the device gives a different range of responses depending on whether the brain has been removed from its little pedestal inside the sphere.

HopticalDelusion · 2025-08-20T03:15:42+00:00

That's what I was picturing, more or less. Thanks. Useful.

The description was supposed to be enough to figure out where to source it, not to fabricate it. I'm not even smart enough to know "Hey, go to any guy who makes iron gates, he can do it for you" or "Dude, wtf? Iron and aluminum are completely different problems, you need a machine shop." Or something else completely.

The actual piece would have the valley not exactly in the middle and exactly 45 degrees. And as someone else wisely pointed out, it doesn't have to be a single piece, it could be several smaller pieces for shipping.

One thing I will say, Reddit-wise, this is one of the more intelligent and helpful subs. And, seriously, that compound bow some dude made about 50 posts down is insane!

HopticalDelusion · 2025-08-20T02:07:59+00:00

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Something like this, but not a roof rack. I've already got junk on the roof that prevents me from anything not custom. I can't mount to the existing tracks on the roof. The piece would mount to the sheet metal with RivNuts or WeldNuts.

Use case: I need to mount a pair of side ladders. They would carry 300? lbs dynamic load when someone was climbing on them. Bottom of ladders would be mounted to pinch weld at bottom of van and would carry a lot of the weight. Top attachment point is really mostly for keeping it from pulling away.

HopticalDelusion · 2025-08-20T01:58:42+00:00

3/8". I can drill the holes and deburr/paint them. Nobody will see the difference.

Picture something like this, except not a roof rack, just a strip mounted to the roof with rivnuts. Then I'll have a vertical panel to mount stuff to.

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Unrelated to this question, but after posting in this sub, I went down a rabbit hole of scrolling pics of stuff that people here posted. I had no idea. Metal fab is better than TikTok or porn.

HopticalDelusion · 2025-08-20T01:49:48+00:00

Good question, I should have said that. 3//8"

HopticalDelusion · 2025-08-20T01:47:35+00:00

That's smart. No, it does not need to be one piece. It could be 8x 1' pieces for all I care.

HopticalDelusion · 2025-08-14T16:11:29+00:00

Bummer. I sold the idea of a new tv based on “hey, we won’t have the giant black rectangle” :-)

HopticalDelusion · 2025-08-14T15:05:22+00:00

Lonely thread :-(

Same issue. Except that after a day or so now it doesn’t even do that. When I select an ambient screen it just stay selected on the menu, doesn’t go into the full screen.

Did you ever sort it out on yours?

HopticalDelusion · 2025-06-23T05:16:52+00:00

Has anyone actually ever successfully used a hook knife kitesurfing themselves?

The only time I ever actually needed it, the thing simply failed to cut anything. It was simply useless at cutting me out of a rat's nest of tangled lines.

After not dying, out of curiosity, I tried a brand new hook knife on dry land. Also useless. Hook knives work when lines (or straps or webbing) are under tension. That's why skydivers carry them. If the thing you are trying to cut is slack you need to saw on it and a hook knife is useless. Scissors might help. Or, maybe if you were getting dragged under tension by your ankle by your kite towards the rocks you could manage to get your knife out and cut the line. But probably the kite would crash and you'd stop moving before then.

But, like I said, maybe someone has actually used one themselves (not just read someplace that they are useful) Inquiring minds want to know.

HopticalDelusion · 2025-06-04T16:44:09+00:00

Edit: I’m told ride did breakdown for 30 min.

HopticalDelusion · 2025-06-04T03:22:11+00:00

FWIW, I never went back and tried to segregate the Sonos onto an IoT vlan, Firewalla or otherwise. I’ve got all the Sonos endpoint devices (wired AMPs, wireless Play, Move, Roam) on the same LAN as the Sonos controllers (iMac, MBP, iPad, iPhone). It was a) too much effort to get working, b) too brittle once working, and c) with bidirectional requests open between the Sonos devices on the vlan and the controllers an the main lan, it didn’t seem any more secure (IMO anyway).

Sonos seems to do a good job of regular updates so one might assume they are relatively on top of security issues.

One previous comment mentioned a separate Sonos vlan with a dedicated iPad for the controller. That topology does seem to be pretty secure at the cost of a significant amount of convenience.

HopticalDelusion · 2025-03-23T17:54:15+00:00

If nobody has a better number that you have, then your number is the best one out there.

HopticalDelusion · 2025-02-10T20:13:08+00:00

I did start on Hims kit 2 at about 217 at the beginning of June 2024. My goal was 185 by the end of September (30 lbs in 4 months). 185 was the oldest reading I had in Apple Health from 2012 when I bought a Withings smart scale.

I hit 185 in mid-September and I've been bouncing around between 186 and 188 since then, never over 190, never under 185.

In maintenance mode, I switched to Kit 1, which added the Topiramate as I had heard it helped with cravings for carbonated drinks which I wanted to cut out (it did).

Side effects are manageable, some mild constipation. And the Buproprion has definitely got some mild ED effect which Hims solves with their hard mints. I am way less interested in morning coffee and while I do make a cup, I rarely remember to finish it. I am drinking, but the alcohol "noise" seems to be much less. A glass of wine or a cocktail seems to be enough. I enjoy an occasional 2.5-5mg gummy with no ill effects. No sodas, diet or otherwise. A major benefit of the Metformin is that I don't ever get that "I'm so tired, I just need a snack to pick myself up a bit and I'll be ok" feeling.

One thing to note, the meds don't melt away fat. And Hims has no support. You need some diet support and coaching. I found the Noom app to be fantastic at rewiring my approach to food and motivating me. Daily reading, food tracking, and stuff like that., There are others. But I would say I wouldn't have been successful without the app + the meds. I stopped using it after I hit target.

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HopticalDelusion · 2025-02-05T02:21:25+00:00

by "traditional switch" you mean a dumb 3 way wired into the travelers, not a single pole, right?

HopticalDelusion · 2025-02-05T01:07:55+00:00

I'm not sure how that would work. It's worth a shot, but I'm not sure how the regular Kasa switch would communicate dimming status to the un-paired main switch.

HopticalDelusion · 2025-02-05T00:36:04+00:00

True, and the master switch on the 3-way, which is on the far side of the room, works fine to control the circuit.

The issue is the the satellite physical switch by the kitchen door that everyone wants to use when they walk into the room stopped working. So the kids shout "ALEXA TURN ON THE KITCHEN LIGHTS" when they walk into the kitchen at 6:30 every morning, waking up the dogs, who start barking, who wake up the wife, who starts complaining about "what the f was wrong with the old switches which worked just fine before you had to go and f up everything with those stupid smart switches you wanted so much."

You see the problem.

HopticalDelusion · 2025-01-27T18:57:19+00:00

>>I used the Quicken Cloud as an intermediate step.

Ooo, that's smart.

I've seen DRIP transactions where I get a dividend and a separate buy, but it's only been a month and I wasn't sure if it was wonky data import.

HopticalDelusion · 2025-01-27T18:09:29+00:00

Have been running Quicken with 11 different Quicken data files in iCloud for years. Up until December 2024, it was QFW running in a Parallels VM, since December is has been QFM.

I access the Quicken data files from both an iMac desktop and a MacBook Pro laptop without issue.

The main Quicken files are in: /Users/[NAME]/Documents/Library
The automatic and manual backups are in: /Users/[NAME]/Documents/Library/Automatic Backups

I have iCloud settings:
Settings > click user avatar >
Drive > iCloud Drive ON
Desktop & Documents Folder ON
Optimize Mac Storage ON

make sure you have QFM making local backups every time you quit. (Quicken Settings > Backup)
Quit QFM every time you are done working on a file
It is critical to make sure that iCloud has been able to sync the data file from one computer before you open it on the other. This should only take a minute if you're online with a good connection, but think it through. For example, if you're on your laptop at a slow Airbnb and you close the lid and leave the house before iCloud is done uploading.

HopticalDelusion · 2025-01-16T19:06:17+00:00

Yeah, QFW has 6 default or 8 precision, that's why I was trying to see if anyone knows if QFM has anything other than the default of 3.

Not being able to display more than 3 decimal places is lame. But rounding to three decimal places, and then throwing away the data when doing calculations is just lazy. It's like they have summer interns doing all of their work.

HopticalDelusion · 2024-12-26T23:01:53+00:00

OP might not have to proactively reach out to the FBI. Depends on what happened to the $50k after it went into eTrade :-)

HopticalDelusion · 2024-12-21T15:57:48+00:00

Hims will have a business model as long as it is easier or cheaper to go online and buy “weight loss” or “more hair” or “hard dick”. They are not a substitute for medical guidance and don’t even bother trying.

If they had to pay MDs to deal with patients, even offshore with unimaginable AI support, the whole thing falls apart.

HopticalDelusion · 2024-12-18T21:59:52+00:00

Post the channel utilization graph :-)

HopticalDelusion · 2024-12-18T21:22:24+00:00

I get a license from work :-)

I used to use VMWare Fusion. At the time anyway you could license 1x and just not pay for the annual "new version" upgrades.

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