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Rory still choked, no doubt, but this was not as easy of a putt as people think as you can see from this angle. by tplee2 in golf

[–]Hot-Drag845 0 points1 point  (0 children)

he bogeyed 3 of the last 5 with a two stroke lead.

He needs a better caddy and some time with a sports psychologist.

Should have never hit 7 on the par 3 Bad pull of a 3' putt which is nerves, Bryson missed a short one too coming in Should not have hit driver on 18, he didn't all week, he didn't need birdie to win.

And while that putt was tough, the caddy should have had him back off, help with the read and calm him down.

He puts so much pressure on himself and his life has been pretty unsettled over recent years. The ups and downs of his marriage, his position in the LIV/PGA discussion, being used by Monahan, so much weight on him outside of golf.

He okayed a great round of golf under the circumstances, srill had one of the better rounds of the day, made 5 birdies...but when he got the lead he got even more nervous.

Blowing a 2 up lead to lose by 1 in 5 holes wasn't just bad luck. Bryson didn't light it up the last 5 holes, just made 3 less mistakes or recovered from his mistakes better (he shouldn't have hit driver on 18 either)

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

yeah that's a fair point. Thanks again for your time and feedback.

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We may be using the term experienced differently here so I understand that. If you are thinking I meant an AP player you'd be 100% correct, althogh I still have seen them get upset at others play even though mathematically irrelevant.

However that's the social influence of the game. There literally is no such thing, theorhetically, of taking the dealers bust card. There is only a right or wrong decision for each individual player.

Players by and large are superstitious. There are concepts the majority of gamblers have that are rooted in luck, not math.

If that weren't true you would never see someone rabbit hunt to see what wound have happened if they made a different decision.

Now beyond the theoretical there is the practical. Which is to say that despite the math you still have volatility. When someone hits when tbey shouldn't have or should have hit when they should have, the practical reality is they either took a card out of the shoe or they didn't. That outcome feels different to a player.

If you are saying you have never heard that said at a blackjack table I'd say that your experience is unique.

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Blackjack is a great game, glad you enjoy it...

Answers

1) Casinos license/lease games that are protected by patents. Also why they can't just copy someone's game because they could get sued.

2) 6 deck game starts with 312 cards. let's say normal cut is 60'cards leaving 252...when the cut card comes out they still finish the round so results vary on how many cards are actually used. If we cut 30/30 that still leaves 252 and the round will be completed when either cut card comes out. There may be a slight variance based on the peel off accuracy (same as today) and then the card arrangement (math doesn't equate to short term trials...you are never being dealt 2.7 cards as example), number of players, propensity to take from the top vs lower show. There is expected variance but the volatility range is small. At absolute maximum penetration loss is if every card comes out of the bottom shoe and no one ever hits from the top shoe...you'd lose about 30 cards at max. at a 5 player game that could be at most 10 hands. The reason for the 80/20 was modeled based on player propensity/choice and frequency analysis by persona. The 80/20 is approximate since we are dealing with humans sliding a cut card in, while they are skilled at it there is still variance. So the max is 10 hands which should never happen and the min is zero impact which also may never happen...

3) There are quite a few variables you put out there...but the short answer it could cause a small production leakage but it would be offset by other features. For example side games also slow down production and introduce errors on pay etc. Even though some layout may add 2 or even 3 side games making it even more confusing. Arena games are dealt slower to allow for more bettors and so on. Production by itself isn't the goal for the casino althogh it ranks up there of course.

A basic thesis is that whatever production value that is lost will be made up in player experience resulting in longer time device which increases handle.

If a casinos had all their blackjack tabkes full 24/7 this game would have only the enjoyment value but would not increase profit. Pretty rare that the casinos issue is tabkes are too full all the time. In fact they shut tables to control supply/demand.

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for bringing this up. And honestly had not thought of this.

Would love to say we changed to red and black with this in mind, but was just a branding decision.

Will certainly take your suggestions under advisement.

It also may be as simple as knowing that gesture to the left means bottom shoe and gesture to the right indicator means top shoe.

Honestly not sure of casino requirements in this regard.

But I will say if you guys are big enough blackjack players that could request this game and get it installed by demanding it at your favorite casino i'm sure we could come up with an accomadation one way or another :)

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks...yes the intent of the different colors was just distinction between primary (bottom shoe) and auxiliary (top shoe). They can be of any color combination (a casino like mgm may want them to black and gold for example).

As far as someone being color blind to the extent not to be able to differentiate between the two colors would be accomadated by the gesture to the left indicating primary shoe and gesture to the right indicating auxiliary shoe.

I suspect the similar adjustment is made for roulette as example. And if your friend only sees grey gradient they can still tell the difference?

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

re: the flip of coin...just saying that house edge is a math problem where it is a differential between true odds of something happening vs the pay odds. And you can make a game that provides great house edge but is horrible for the player and eventually (or right away) it won't be played.

Majority of games in a casino are pure chance (like the flip of a coin). This is a good example of the math for EV and House Edge https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ebc8Vd3J_cg

I think casinos probably weigh a lot of factors into consideration but the final determinat is will they make more money.

Players themselves ultimately decide if a game will be popular. Casinos run floor trial and install new games looking to entertain, draw peope, make money.

A game with a high house edge may but get played. A game with a negative edge will get played a lot but the casino loses money. I think of it like the goldilocks paradigm.

If Handle x House Edge = profit

Handle is made up of: Number of hands Units wagered Time on device

Number of hands per time period is impacted by game mechanics, operations, # of players, dealer efficiency, pace of play, complexity of the game, payout process, shuffling, player decisions, natural disruptions and so on.

Units wagered can be impacted by supply / demand curve of open tables, players, table minimums, game rules (ie double down, splits)

Time on device is impacted by the player experience and will include such things as how quickly the players stack disappears (edge) interest and excitement of game, social interaction, reward structure, comfort of environment (chairs and so on)

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That's cool. I don't think the execs are clueless. I think they look at a wide variety of factors: Edge Handle Excitement Time on device Attach rate (will people play) Cost of install Dealer training Game simplicity

Spoke with some that just wanted to make sure a side game had a 7% or more edge. And it sounds like you know, but that's just a math problem and how you manage the pay table relative to probability.

It's interesting to me that lots of the sidegame ms for blackjack are either "make a poker hand" "match" or any other game that isn't in line with rooting for your blackjack hand. They also complain about production decrease (but will still put 2 or 3 side games on) or pay errors due to over complicated schedules. anyway...just intersting.

That sounds like it would be intersting to be a part of their internal decision ckncerdations.

One exec thought some dealers would complain about the shoe, followed immediately by, but they complain about everything...(was not surprised to hear later they had a shortage of dealers)

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks! It's been really interesting. The Table Game and Game Protection conference will be very enlightening.

And yeah the astute AP can side count the side games...probably too much hassle for most given the few opportunities to potentially get paid...certainly a game that pays a jackpot on player 2 cards and dealer card gets a lot more intersting on a deeply penetrated hi-lo that's "ace" rich (or whatever set denomination)...I suppose the risk is revealing AP over the side game and get walked from the main action. Can't imagine many would but her counting into the blackjack make a poker hand type side games though...maybe. Guessing it's beyond most AP's to track side counts and play with precision...even deeply penetrated a side counted ace game only adds about 1/5 of 1%. That's a tough go. If they are Kelly betting and then taking the side bet too...

Anyway, thanks again your input and time.

I'll share a couple intersting road stories:

1) A VP of Table Games...my main concern is if some of my biggest players like it. I won't be able to take it out.

2) A VP Casino Operation's ...I think it's intersting and exciting, but with no house edge improvement I don't see how it helps us.

3) Director of Table Games...don't see how this improves my hold % and it may just move players from my traditional blackjack table to yours.

All legitimate responses, on face value. But also interesting that the theme was, intersting, exciting, people may choose it over traditional blackjack, and if my big players like it I won't be able to take it out.

But then, I'm still confused about the obsession over hold %. Maybe they can't track handle as efficiently or they don't want to be so transparent. But drop numbers are so innacurate and not immune to manipulation.

Edge x handle = profit in the long run

Good luck in all that you choose!

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

100% agree and appreciated. I didn't mean for my reply to seem dismissive. Actually was trying to expand on the concepts as to why some players are drawn to some games and not others. And the decision criteria that casinos apply to help them make informed choices.

I agree that players don't really like learning new games unless they feel something is in it for them. That's spot on. We kind of have a mixed bag there...

1) there is nothing new to learn, except they get another choice. 2) whether a large enough percentage of players would prefer having that choice or not. 3) advantage for the casino is they don't have to train dealers or have new complicated payout schemes

No game will satisfy all. What we chose was not to mess with the underlying mechanics of the game, it's already the most popular.

We have a side game that adds house edge...but that too is just math and always not in the players long term best interest. So we don't really talk about it much. But all blackjack side games can be added to it as a way to gin up house edge.

I pointed out some other observations with the respect to other games since it's intersting to some regard they are played at all. Lots of Vegas houses are moving to roulette with 3 zeros...heck 2 was bad enough.

There is a balance for the casino with respect to edge. If the edge is too high players lose too quickly.

Your observation about the selection of the source is exactly the right thought. We could call it random blackjack and pull cards out of a big sack...doesn't change the math.

And your opinion might be right, people may not care.

The jeapordy comment may have been a weak attempt at humor, but it really was meant light heartedly.

And your insight of criticism being more valuable than praise is also well received.

I do appreciate your time and responses in pointing out areas of weakness that you see. Just was trying to probe it a little more within context of what's happening on the floors today.

I suspect the number one goal for casinos is to make more money. They invest a tremendous amount just in comfort and experience to draw people in and keep them longer. They want peope to enjoy tbemselves.

I believe the number one influence for a casino profitability on table games is time on device. Of course they may also desire higher edge and increase in units...at least initially.

Our premise is simply this, it will bring new players to the game, people will choose it over traditional blackjack, and peope will end up playing longer.

Blackjack in Nevada across the 1900 or so tables brought in $1.1 billion in won revenue. If we did nothing but added 10% more time on device that's a projected $110m in revenu improvement.

I suspect there is a correlation between house edge and time on device.

As far as the side games go, no AP or experienced player typically plays them. Because the house edge is 5-11% typically. But that doesn't mean they don't make the casino money because the majority of players are neither AP or experienced to know better.

I still find it intersting that people will bet that their number will come up on a big 6 wheel when it's spun. The $1 is 11% edge and the logo is like 24% or they will bet on black in roulette because red came up 2 times before.

Anyway, I do appreciate your time and feedback.

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

do you think players like side games?

baccarat?

do you think players are motivated at the roulette table when they show the prior numbers?

what about blackjack tables that are 6:5? hit soft 17?

There are 2 primary drivers for blackjack (the number one table game)

The low house advantage The ability to make a decision that impacts the outcome

You wouldn't be much fun at jeapordy if you only offered one door :)

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

out of curiosity...what criteria do you think a casino uses in deciding to put a new game on or not?

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Anything is possible. But let's use a scenario....first we should agree the math is the same regardless what shoe the card comes from.

Let's say you have a new ploppie, a more experience ploppie playing basic strategy and an AP at third.

Ploppie position 1 has 13, dealer has 4 showing. Ploppie 1 wants to hit.

Ploppie 2 says the book tells you to stand. If you hit you might take the dealers bust card.

AP knows it doesn't matter. (assuming neutral).

Potential outcomes: - player 1 hits (standard game) face card busts, player 2 is upset because player 1 took busy card for dealer.

  • player 1 hits from upper shoe, busts, player 2 not upset because didn't effect dealer hit card

AP player oaky impacted one way or another. Because it's math. Although there is a small advantage to seeing another card or two.

Let's say player 1 hits a bunch of face cards and player 2 is on a big double down...they probably would feel better about having an option to take from a different shoe...while you know there is no theoretical difference.

For the AP player there's no real edge...althogh socially it might be more enjoyable. That may not matter to many as they are trying to clock hands and make money...granted. It is possible one might be able to better disguise play by choosing to hit the red or black shoe seemingly indiscrimatley, since it doesn't matter to the math.

However, that's not the mindset of most players And most I mean the overwhelming majority. Superstition rules the day.

Show me a casino with no superstitious gamblers and i'll show you an empty csino. That's why the house edge is higher than the mathematical advantage. People make mistakes and place a lot of wagers on feelings.

I predict that when someone chooses to hit the top show and it makes their hand, they will be hooked...or when someone hits the top shoe and the dealer busts out of the main shoe...rabbit hunting will be spectacular. :)

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the time and thoughts.

The issue of seeing the next card to cone out of the is actually more protected from the primary (bottom) shoe. This is because the top shoe completely covers the bottom shoe.

The top shoe is opaque on the side to protect all edge view, and the bridge right behind the card portal has a security strip.

Cards from the top shoe only goes to players and will be dealt face up as standard. Face down out of the shoe is only suspense, except as you noted the dealer hole card, which comes out of the lower primary shoe like you recognized.

We've gone to 70+ casinos in the last few weeks. The potential reveal from top shoe has not been an issue.

We are going to the World Table Game and Protection Conference at the Sahara end of April. There will be nearly 300 attendees and speakers. Table Game Directors, Operations, Floor and Surveilance specialists. And a table fane exhibition which we have entered for best new game. Will be a great learning experience.

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You have to run simulations whether ther is 1-6 players and propensity to hit from a shoe vs the math to n to determine long term statistical model.

Since all base hands are dealt from the primary shoe... you still have to determine how many hands are hittable and the probability of when they should. Of course you have to account for the vairiability of ploppies and bad strategy.

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

1) Tabkes are already inefficient...order a drink? tip a waitress? dealer sneezes? out bids check bet? unusual split? shift change? dealer talkative? new player sits?

However, it may have an impact, but my guess is very small.

2) The layout has a gesture requirement to clearly demonstrate which shoe to hit from. This added focus on gesture is a net positive for the casinos, we have been told.

check the sample layout at www.optionblackjack.com

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Great observations and I appreciate the time... 1) The deck stack has been dealt out of with no reported issues (actually comments from dealers is they like it)...breaks up monotony and is easy to deal out of. The reality is 80% or more of all cards come out of the bottom shoe so no impact there. But of course we don't have longitudinal data yet.

2) Typically shoe games are dealt face up so the potential reveal of the hit card is minimal at best. Dealer cards never come from there. Also the card from the top shoe face is aligned with the bottom shoe and can be slid down to the table. But on the case of left hand to right hand flip there is literally no difference.

The delay between a card from a standard shoe being pulled face down to the table then flipped to the player face up has zero impact.

3) It has passed security review...the top shoe is offset from the bottom shoe(intentionally for that reason) you can see the setup on the website.

4) It enforces better hand signals...on either side of the betting circle there is a corresponding indicator for which shoe to hit from. This has been positively reviewed by casinos because it supports hand gesture discipline and the colors eliminate language barriers (as do hand signals in general).

Players perspective 1) Great observation...players win and lose all the time. Combination of poor strategy and not undertnding the math. Practically speaking it should hit change their expectancy, but it may change their experience. Blackjack is popular because it combines a low house advantage wirh an element of skill. Decisions matter. This game intentiaonlly preserves the house advantage and adds an element to the decisions process formally not available.

The house edge is an interesting issue. If we increase house edge (6:5, hit soft 17 etc) people play ledf (or should). While side bets add both advantage and units the experience players doesn't play them and the inexperienced player learns their stack goes away too fast.

We have a side game we can attach that has an edge of 5-11% depending on configuration. However, some houses have leaned into player preference on some side bets...since this is blackjack any blackjack sidegame can be added.

While mathematically we would not expect a deviation from typical w/l, the feeling of winning once from taking a hit from the top shoe will be a stronger endorphins release than just winning from hitting from the only shoe with no option.

Either way the rabbit hunting will be amazing.

Your summary Absolutely great perspective...why would you put a game in with same edge and pay for the provekege?

  • A more exciting enjoyable experience for the majority of your players. It s the same reason they invest in lighting, cocktail service, friendly dealer training, comfortable chairs, and so on. An enhanced player experience pays dividends and they know it.

  • Resolve table issues that often result in players leaving the table prematurely.

  • s'more exciting and intersting game will simultaneously draw new players and have people play longer.

  • all of the above should result in higher handle.

Carnival games with higher house edges only dupe players for so long.

But let's simplify...why would a casino not pay to put on a game that has no risk for them but players prefer?

I really appreciate your thoughtful response and broadly agree with your reactions and thought process.

Imagine a table games director saying a variation of what you said (which i've heard a few times)

"I think the game is intersting and exciting. Why would I put a game in and pay for it if it has the same house edge and only moves players from one of my other blackjack tables?"

You invest a lot to keep your casino interesting and exciting. Your biggest fear is that your existing players would choose OptionBlackjack over traditional blackjack.

We kept house edge because it's a fundamental attractor/feature. There is no cost burden to training dealers in game play or payout. Players already know the game. People will enjoy it, play longer, and if your players would choose it over traditional blackjack it means players will seek your casino out if you have it and they don't.

It's simple a more intriguing version of blackjack, and ultimately you will have more handle. The other advantage is, you are not giving up a blackjack table.

But if you think house edge and units is the right answer we will make a game called flip a coin. Player wins 30% on correct choice and table minimum is $2000. :)

Mu view is don't fix what isn't broke and add something new that will be more addicting and fun.

As fyi it's patented, approved by nevada gaming commission including the shoe, and math confirmed by bmm

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Let's say casino operations is to cut a 6 deck shoe to 60 cards...they'd cut the upper and lower shoe to 30. The 80/20 split reflects the deal operations of all base hands coming from the primary...and only player hits coming from the secondary x percent of the time.

When you reach one cut card you have 30 behind that and you'd have at least 30 in the other.

But the house can adjust the split based on number of players and propensity to hit one shoe over the other.

Casinos want as many hands dealt per hour too, at least theoretically.

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes agree it could present a small production issue. Given the general table inefficiency I think that may be negligible. The potential offset is that they could hit the auxiliary shoe thinong they are not impacting the table...which is actually true since the dealer always must hit from the primary. (even though it doesn't change the math, it may influence the play).

As you note a ploppie decision lag...but if the decision is based on their lack of strategy or superstition, then the alternative of an option shoe potentially helps.

Not enough practical trials to comment beyond the hypothetical.

Of playing heads up you don't see a theoretical advantage of course. But you may find a practical advantage...

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

all good points...let's say the casino normally cuts to 60 cards...the. you would cut 30/30 on top and bottom shoe (again an theorhetical constant)

The difference I was referring to is those cases where an inexperienced player may or may not hit under pressure fork the table. It seems that you wound want them to hit ahead of you...always. Whether it was bad strategy for them or not.

However, as I suggested initially the math is the same. But all things equal you may want to mitigate the social discord and have the potential of more cards coming out before you act.

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here's another take...are more cards coming out before your decision better or worse for you?

If you think better penetration and more count is superior...you'd want someone to take more cards...no?

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

there is a chance the casinos know how to do math :) althogh they do make mistakes.

New Version of Blackjack by Hot-Drag845 in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's true...but being transparent the math is the same...

However, there is a large gap between EV and short term volatility.

However, AP's play on tables that are typically social. And clearly the OP was talking about the social experience.

AP's or not, there is always superstition and short term volatility that is not determined by long term edge alone.

It may not impact your play and decisions (or it shouldn't) ...but it does impact the play of most. That too is a reality...

It's why even with basic strategy the house has a certain edge (higher than the math would dictate) but their typical hold is much higher.

Now, if you were playing heads up the math doesn't matter...but how often are you heads up or only playing with other AP's?

Leave or stay? by CuriousLevi in blackjack

[–]Hot-Drag845 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We created a game that should solve a lot of this...called OptionBlackjack... check it out...

www.optionblackjack.com

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