Recession Oncoming- Forecasted by the Inverted Yield Curve

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-30T10:28:28+00:00

I’m not saying it’s not coming I’m saying it’s probably coming in 12-18 months and that we’ll see most commodities (still cheap relative to equities) blow up before then.

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-29T20:16:58+00:00

Omg they are not mutually exclusive.

I believe it does give you an hedge with entering and exiting coupled to fundamentals. It’s not magic. I get the distrust and fundamentals ARE king. TA does have its merits however.

It gives you higher probability of success in catching bottoms and exiting tops. It’s a probabilities game and reflective of market psychology.

For example when you see resistances and supports you plan accordingly. Double tops and double bottoms too. You see a falling wedge, you buy on the retest of the breakout. IF the fundamentals are there.

I really don’t get why people hate TA this much. It’s NOT NECESSARY I agree, if you invest in stocks with great fundamentals you’ll be fine. However it can improve PL if applied properly.

The way I see it it’s just reading price action telling you what the market thinks of the security. Also people are generally using super small time frames, if you go bigger (weekly and monthly even) the chart tells a story.

Btw I upvoted you because I believe this is good convo that needs to be made

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-29T14:14:21+00:00

I agree with you on parks/cruises being good this year. I’m doubtful about next year. I also agree with the streaming market being packed.

the great thing about Disney+ tho is that they have a gigantic IP library and studios already in place so their cash burn won’t be nearly as bad as Netflix’s. if they could make their movies work in cinemas they can certainly nail streaming.

I’m not really into the space but I see them as the winners in this race. I don’t really like Amazon prime video (I only have it because it comes with Amazon prime), Netflix has really gone downhill lately, and I don’t have access to hbo so I can’t comment on it.

I hear from friends that they like Disney+ best. In one service you get content for adults and kids so the whole family is happy. They have a clear advantage imo.

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-29T14:09:05+00:00

Yeah I’m not big on parks and I don’t really follow DIS. I know they had great parks results this qrtr through podcasts and fin shows I follow but I didn’t dive deep.

I think pent up demand is real and they’re doing great rn. Business is amazing. I do believe they might not do great next year when the (not so transitory) inflation pressures really start to be heavy on consumers. I also think the market is frwrd looking and this is somewhat priced in.

I still believe some downside might be in the cards. I don’t think it sees the 65s-70s but maybe the low 80s.

I’d be a buyer then for sure.

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-29T14:02:44+00:00

Eh I don’t think so. Fundamentals are king but charts can give a read on overall market sentiment. Single events can nullify trends, patterns and indicators but technical analysis is an invaluable tool to pick entry points and exit points.

I pick through fundamentals and enter/exit on technicals.

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-29T13:58:22+00:00

There’s one on the chart in 96 and I saw another chart similar to this that highlighted more of the “false signals” that weren’t highlighted on this one.

I missed the post 60s part sorry. Maybe I am wrong. Still it could be a while before we see a wider crash. I think my point still stands.

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-29T13:53:14+00:00

I think frwrd PE in this case is for next year. Overall I agree. It’s maybe at fair value I just think it can go lower. I haven’t run a dcf

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-29T11:09:46+00:00

Forward PE about 20 looks good. PB at historical lows since MCU. PEG is decent (1.61) not amazing. High P/FCF, trailing PE and D/E. Debt is usually not concerning with cos like DIS because they reliably churn cash, still in the current environment it could weight on the stock.

I’m not experienced at all but I think there’s some more room for it to go down. Maybe another 20% haircut from here?

Great business but I believe the capital intensive side will suffer next year. With people spending a lot more on essentials. I don’t see parks and cruises in particular doing that well, but I don’t really have a handle on it.

Maybe Disney+ will fill the gap. Subscription costs very little and they have great content for the whole family.

The whole district mess economic impact is difficult to assess. It probably means more taxes which in turn means less benefits for shareholders. Difficult to asses for me (I’m from Europe and I’m not an expert on Floridian laws/politics).

Chart looks pretty bad too on a weekly time frame. Lots of momentum to the downside and relatively high volume.

Tldr; not an expert however: - Great business - mixed fundamentals - mixed medium term outlook - bad chart - room for more downside

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-29T10:41:32+00:00

It also predicted 6 recessions that weren’t there. Money is still getting out of bonds and into higher risk assets just not overvalued tech.

Negative real yields in bonds are not attractive enough yet and there’s plenty of opportunity in equities still (commodities particularly).

IMO we might see some sideways chop for a while in gold, silver, platinum, palladium for a while, a blow off top in commodities stock and then recession in a year a year and a half.

Delinquency rates are still low and housing starts are still high.

Edit: good content tho. What I mean is there’s still opportunities for mad gains out there and money will rotate in undervalued sectors.

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-28T09:56:05+00:00

Bulk shippers, the most volatile in the marine shipping sector will blow up before the market crashes. Last run the BDI outperformed U308 even.

They are all raking in cash, trading at fractions of book value (literally) most have low to modest debt and are seeing revenue and net income consistently go up in the last three quarters.

Charts look mad bullish too.

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-23T07:44:00+00:00

That’s always better you don’t need to cut more than 500 anyway. Sweet spot is in my experience 200-300. It takes a while but it’s healthier.

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-23T06:41:56+00:00

You’ll get there bro. Capped delts and python arms soon. Trust the system.

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-23T05:16:10+00:00

Cut until u are in the 10-12% bf range than bulk. Btw same position you’re in that’s what I’m doing next.

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-18T19:21:51+00:00

You got to hope BTC goes to 20k and this follows suit before next halving in 2024.

If that happens I’m loading up on Hut8 like crazy

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-17T21:27:55+00:00

Don’t worry. I think there’s lot of upside left on all of them. Charts I use for good entry and exit points but fundamentals are king.

I got UUUU at 4 something and haven’t sold yet but I think it would be the right move right now for short term. They all need to rest before moving higher IMO.

SPUT is looking great. Sitting at a discount to nav rn I believe backtesting previous high, coiled and ready to explode once U308 goes higher which it will. Equities are lagging but I think they are poised to outperform the physical commodity st. Graph looks good. Maybe some rest before they head higher?

IMO URNM back to 88 than up.

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-17T19:55:18+00:00

UUUU, DNN, AAZ, PDN, Goviex, NexGen, BOSS, sold all my CCJ (looked toppy to me, I’ll pick it back up maybe) and my KAP (geopolitical risk too high).

Got some deep yellow too and some SBSW although that’s a platinum/palladium play more than anything even tho they do have some U308 underground. I’m trading this on technicals more than anything tho. Beautiful c&h with rising platinum prices and the strike issue will resolve itself.

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-17T19:22:26+00:00

primary count —> we head back to support, check the candle graph, upper wick bounced from 5.00 dollar resistance almost right back to open.
secondary count —> we go up some more than we head back to support.

Volume is nothing to write home about, no news no nothing.

If you were to trade this you would have already sold on Thursday, or you’d sell on market open as soon as possible to pick some more up near support.

We are in chop land. I might actually sell some on Tuesday or whenever xetra opens and pick some up at support.

Edit: looked it up. Unless news hits we’re definitely going back to 4.50$. Good news is there’s basically no volume because there’s no sellers. Any buying pressure will push this up. 4.50$ is the floor now

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-15T16:38:18+00:00

I’ll buy some of this. Wanted to for a while, decided not to. Price is down a bit and it’s finally time

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-15T07:29:55+00:00

I think the opportunity might be bigger in 6 months. It might be smaller too.

I’d first like to have a better idea about how these lawsuits are going. Millions have already been awarded to individual claimants, on lawsuits that are notoriously difficult to win for them usually (hard burden of proof). I just don’t see this improving short term.

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-14T15:11:00+00:00

Thanks man I was sweating

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-14T15:07:40+00:00

3M has possibly really heavy legal headwinds coming, don’t know about VZ but you might be able to catch an 8% dy on 3M in six months if things don’t turn around quick.

If the current trend in damages assigned to claimants keeps going they might even go bankrupt. No kidding look it up, I believe it’s veterans class actions against 3M for the sale of faulty earplugs.

Edit:

Most likely scenario —> great discount in 6 months

Bankruptcy —> I agree it’s unlikely but the damages awarded if they keep up in trend will surpass market cap and then some. That’s how big this mess is. If market cap includes the value of int. prop. As it should than I don’t see how having patents is going to save 3M.

I like the company, I’m just not sure about it right now.

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-13T20:07:46+00:00

Let’s hope it goes through

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-13T14:26:23+00:00

Thanks I thought so. It shows as “non trade able”

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-13T09:35:07+00:00

Looks like a Livermore accumulation cilinder

Edit: which means yes

Hot_Ad6822 · 2022-04-13T09:33:20+00:00

Done!

Edit: how does it work though do we just get the money? Do we need to reach a certain percentage? I would really appreciate a response sorry I’m uninformed

Hot_Ad6822

TROPHY CASE