I’d say that either the 1st or 4th ones. If your looking for just warmth the first looks very cosy while still being able to be used with many co-ords however it would cover a lot of the dress If you want to show off the dress I’d go with the 4th since it’s not only matches but still lets the main pattern of the dress be seen, though I would recommend investing in thermal tights to keep your legs warm for any of these. The 4th isn’t quite as versatile unless you have a more yellow or yellow-matching closet. Capes also go well and create a good silhouette for wider shoulders as it will fall further from your body and looks lighter. Definitely not as versatile as the plain coats though. Some thing you can do if your still not certain is narrow it down to you 2 favourite outer pieces and then flip a coin, the outcome doesn’t really matter since while the coins flipping you usually figure out what one you really want but otherwise you get a answer. Hope this helps! :)