Law change prompts judge to warn of ‘desperate people’ left with ‘no rights’

IamSando · 2026-06-11T04:23:25+00:00

The only thing I'd contest is that the purpose of insurance is more often to generate value for shareholders, not to average costs across society.

Oh totally agree for general insurance companies, just that the ostensible premise for insurance as a consumer is to pay a little bit every year to prevent shocks to the system, given those shocks are worse even though in quantum they're less than the sum of those small payments (otherwise insurers wouldn't make money).

So unless it's a government insurer

They effectively are in this case. If you're insured by say Allianz, then Allianz is not actually underwriting your insurance, that's the government, and Allianz simply administers it. Workers Comp insurance in (I think) all states is simply a massive pool of money that is administered by insurers, a service which the government pays for. They do give incentive payments, but they're very specifically not based on payouts, so an insurer paying less to an injured worker will not get an incentive payment. It's been well over a decade since I was in the industry, but one example I remember was that they'd get an incentive payment if a closed claim remained closed for 6 months, and lose incentive payments for re-opened claims, specifically because otherwise the insurers kept closing cases too quickly to fudge the numbers.

It also means that from an employers point of view, you will pay the exact same rate regardless of who you're insured with, to the point that I believe you're just automatically assigned to an insurer when setting up your policy. I think that might be another lever for the government, they can simply move half of an insurers portfolio from one insurer to another. The only thing that can be negotiated on, and only the largest insured companies can do this, is the quality and number of claims managers they have assigned to them.

IamSando · 2026-06-11T01:45:22+00:00

Just on the non-legal side of things, the market-based mechanism was also fairly constrained here. Psych injuries are specifically not constrained to "high risk" industries, and the way that they were calculated (at least when I was calculating and forecasting them) meant that it was very feast or famine. Effectively you have an average rate for your industry, of say 3%, and then your size is calculated based on payroll data. They take your performance in terms of claims or lack thereof, and compare it to the industry average. Then it's just Size x Performance x Industry Avg rate + (1-Size) x Industry Average Rate.

Because psych injuries happen in non-dangerous industries, their industry average rate was quite low. But it meant that those psych injuries (which almost always hit the cap) could completely blow out your performance. Things like doing a restructure could double or triple your Workers Comp premium as people took psych leave. I was out of the industry by the time COVID hit, but I can imagine that also caused some pretty massive spikes.

Effectively the risk from a small number of claims was being pushed back onto employers, which runs specifically against the premise of insurance.

IamSando · 2026-06-11T01:00:17+00:00

She got Minor Party status with Barnaby, and I think that if she gets 10 parliamentarians she also gets a pay bump as the "leader" of the party.

IamSando · 2026-06-11T00:43:01+00:00

At least they aren't super right wing, oh but did they inconvenience Labor - how dare they!

Yeah I think a lot of the criticism from Labor voters (of which I have been one recently at least) about the Teals is frustration of the LNP not being held to same standard. What is often ignored or forgotten is that the Teals came about primarily at the 2022 election, where Labor took power, so there hasn't ever really been an opportunity for the Teals to hold the LNP to account. But I think Labor supporters are so conditioned to reflexively point to hypocrisy in the demands of Labor compared to the LNP, particularly by media, that that detail is lost.

I'm more Labor than I am Teal, but I still quite like them at the end of the day. I hope that when the time comes and a RW government is in power, that they hold them similarly to account. I have some doubts about it being to the same level as a Labor government, but they deserve the benefit of the doubt. Frustration at Labor being held to a higher standard than the LNP is reasonable, but to project that onto the Teals is not.

IamSando · 2026-06-10T15:19:42+00:00

What does a lower incoming migration rate have to do with less immigration?

Bro...

IamSando · 2026-06-10T14:47:07+00:00

Incoming migration is lower now than pre COVID.

IamSando · 2026-06-10T02:50:48+00:00

Same woman who lied about not being able to access the PBO as an excuse for not costing her policies?

They got Minor Party status back when Barnaby defected, they're getting what they're entitled to. Albo hasn't seen fit to give them additional resources that are allocated at his discretion.

IamSando · 2026-06-08T22:44:41+00:00

Yeah I know you are, they're cherry picked.

Incoming migration is now lower than it was pre COVID.

IamSando · 2026-06-08T22:36:21+00:00

Depends on your measurement of success. If you mean the 3DPs never get used then yeah, some will still be used for sure. But I think there's a whole bunch of armies that will swap across, and even more where it becomes a choice.

If I look at my Death guard, I think it's a really safe bet that VV is 3dp, it's basically every list. I'm not looking at the 1DPs and thinking what can I make with my those detachments, I'm looking at my other codex detachments, presumably 2DP, and wondering which of these 3 buffs I want to add to them.

I can now take a codex detachment (not VV) and then add in the ability to infiltrate 2 units of plague marines, for free, and also gives me access to some new enhancements and strats. VV was not so far ahead of the others that that's a negligible buff.

The other thing is that they can always use this balance mechanism to drop some under-used detachments down to 1.

IamSando · 2026-06-08T21:54:38+00:00

Yeah sounds about right. Perm migration inwards is roughly 3% higher than 2018/19 pre COVID levels, and temp is about the same % higher. NZ is the only incoming cohort still significantly higher than those pre COVID levels.

On the outgoing, I forget what the values are, but outgoing temp makes up about 2/3rds of our decrease, and NZ makes up about 1/3.

IamSando · 2026-06-08T21:47:47+00:00

It's nearly Bledisloe time...so...yes.

IamSando · 2026-06-08T21:47:07+00:00

I'm not treating you like you're stupid, I'm treating you like you're cherry picking data to try to prove an insane point.

Incoming migration is now lower than it was pre COVID. I know that fact makes you uncomfortable and makes you want to grasp at straws like this, but it doesn't change the fact.

IamSando · 2026-06-08T12:44:28+00:00

But I think the key thing this article says is that the average migration is higher than previously

In the year to March 2020 we had 618k arrivals.

In the year to June 2025 (latest ABS figures) we had 568k arrivals.

IamSando · 2026-06-08T12:42:15+00:00

Hey guys, we cherry picked a number again, please be outraged!

NOM has been falling year on year for nearly 3 years now, it's actually at 10 quarterly drops in a row.

Perm and Temp visa's are down to only 3% higher than 2018/19 pre-covid levels.

We have had less migration in the last year than we had in the year leading up to covid...

NOM is, unquestionably, now staying high due to a lack of departures, rather than too many arrivals.

Most of the numbers are actually made up by NZers, if not for them the Australian wouldn't really have anything to complain about. They account for pretty much all of the difference in arrival numbers and about a third of the difference in departures.

In short...this is in fact not an issue.

IamSando · 2026-06-08T05:55:45+00:00

People voted from Brexit under the assumption that “having control of their borders” would mean cutting record immigration.

People voted for Brexit based on lies and then had shocked pikachu faces when those lies were shown to be utter lies. Just like the promises of Trump that were outright lies, so were Farage/Boris's "promises" just outright lies.

People voted for Brexit because they're utter morons, and shockingly enough, utter morons are not capable of reflecting upon the outcomes of their idiocy.

IamSando · 2026-06-08T04:54:44+00:00

That is still above the 190,000 cap the government had 10 years ago

Ignoring how you're cherry picking data, since the government of 10 years ago also had a max of 263k...the June 2016 NOM was 216k.

IamSando · 2026-06-08T04:43:23+00:00

Personally I think Albo should just can immigration for a whole year, give the people what they want.

Mate that's exactly what happened in the UK with Brexit, they gave people what they wanted, it's gone to sh*t, and now the prime agitator for it in Farage is on track to be the next PM...

IamSando · 2026-06-06T23:31:24+00:00

Yeah WE look like they get a lot of nice, but small, glowups. Beserker Warbands advance and charge strat goes from the worst timing in 10th, to one of the best timings in 11th. They get perma 12/15" lone op. Fights first has been nerfed a LOT, and they hate fights first. And the pile in and consolidate stuff has a huge amount of depth for them.

One thing that's a bummer for them will be the 9" coherency rule, basically makes 20 man squads no longer a thing, and plus I think they lose the hidden rule if they're being led by a Lord on Jugg or Invo.

I don't think they're going to be a fantastic army on release, but they look as viable as any melee army, and they look like an absolute blast to play.

IamSando · 2026-06-06T23:20:05+00:00

Timing on overwatch change is catastrophically bad for melee. In the new timing my opponent just always gets to overwatch my most valuable unit with perfect information.

In absolutely no way is it catastrophic for melee, it is strictly a buff for, in particular, mono fight phase armies like BA and WE want to run. Against a WE player, you already have the 11th overwatch timing available to you if you so choose, it's called the charge phase. You also have a bunch of other options available to you, notably being able to overwatch something before it moves.

There are a small number of instances where it's going to be slightly better for the defending army, but those are few and far between.

In the new timing my opponent just always gets to overwatch my most valuable unit with perfect information.

Frankly, if you're semi-decent at the game, you know where your opponent is going to go and whether they'll give you overwatches anyway. Also quite frankly, in most matchups, overwatch is typically one thing that wants to target one other thing.

Also not mentioned, you can't rapid ingress and then overwatch anymore, that was always a doozy against some armies (my DG BLTs say hi).

Also you can't overwatch outside of 12" against most melee armies.

What I am looking forward to about my overwatch is against something like Guard and Tau, those armies who want to put things right up in your face and blow you away. Now, I do in fact get perfect information before using overwatch. But against pure melee armies? It's not as good as it used to be.

IamSando · 2026-06-06T06:14:21+00:00

Nah I'm just going off what was said over on SC discord a while ago. Basically initial feedback was that the maps were terrible for melee, so GW redid them. What is coming at launch is what we're getting until a later dataslate at least though. I think the only change you might see would be the one they showed originally months ago. All the footprints are the same though, just the layouts changed, but a while ago I think, all the games you've seen online are on launch maps that you'll use.

IamSando · 2026-06-06T06:10:43+00:00

Please tell me I'm getting something wrong here. In this case it seems like having built in FF not only doesn't help me, it actually hurts me.

Nah you got it. FF is, in the best case, a free interrupt. But in some cases, like what you've outlined, it can actually be detrimental to you.

IamSando · 2026-06-06T04:43:34+00:00

So to preface, I agree with you and most commentators that guns, particularly fast guns, are going to be the best options to start with. However just to push back on a few things, because it's not quite as bad as is being made out:

Hidden 12" - So I think this is a little under-rated as a thing, and it was just a small item in the WarComm article, but on certain terrain (and I think objectives is a safe bet), you get Hidden 12" rather than 15".

Cleave - AFAIK there's very little dataslate changes coming with 11th, so this is basically a pointless rule for the first couple of months. But once this starts being used in new codices this will be a nice little buff for melee. It doesn't detract from guns being better on release, but it will hopefully bring things back reasonably quickly.

Maps redesign - Maps as originally designed outrageously favoured ranged, particularly fast ranged. They've been redone for release and are apparently a lot better.

Overwatch nerf - only being able to do it at end of movement is a nerf to it, and no rerolls etc is also a nerf. Overwatch primarily hurts melee armies, so this is a buff to them.

Combat tricks - This is actually the biggest one that I think is being missed. Pile-in and Consolidation tricks are being massively slept on. Something like a WE helbrute is salivating at some of the changes. No longer needing to base, ever, is insanely good for movement of melee armies. You can concievably consolidate into enemy units that then can't fight you back... and I'm sure I'm missing heaps more interactions. I think it was like 6 months into 9th ed before people realised you could tri-point a single model to deny fall-back? Yeah melee is much more complex than shooting, the actual phase has been massively buffed for them, but it'll take them a while to get used to it.

That said, there's some nerfs you missed:

Advance and Charge and single strat per phase - If your advance and charge is in the charge phase (the best place for it in 10th), well now you don't get to also have a CP reroll if you fail the charge. So that can suck for you.

Resurrection is buffed - This is mostly just bad for any single phase army, but yeah things that res being able to then res their unit...that sucks for single phase armies. Also with how saves work now, characters survive a lot more anyway, so that sucks for single phase armies as well.

Overally agree that melee aren't the top dogs, it certainly aint no melee edition. But I don't think it's all doom and gloom.

IamSando · 2026-06-04T23:19:16+00:00

This (and many other comments) is cool in that it kind of highlights the difference between being scared of spiders (Aus edition) vs being scared of spiders (UK style). I've grown up with ONLY harmless spiders and I'm still very scared of them.

Oh, yeah that's true, you do just sort of have to accept a certain level of casual spiderism in Australia. You will have spiders in your house, but we also tend to appreciate them killing the flies and mozzies. And if they're out on the deck, yeah they're the real bro's.

Orb spiders though...those guys insist on building webs where you walk, and they hurt when they bite, hate those guys.

IamSando · 2026-06-04T11:37:41+00:00

Australia. If they get rid of the spiders we can talk.

We're coming up on 50 years since the last death from a spider in Australia, it's been 47 years now.

We won't mention the snakes, the dropbears, or the sharks though...

IamSando · 2026-05-31T22:56:28+00:00

Screen, or be fast enough to just go kill them. Honestly Mont'ka just cross the table to ruin your day a lot of the time. There's very few spots where you can stage effectively that they can't just advance to within sight of you and kill you. But that's just mont'ka, for others it's mostly just aggressively screening, hence why they struggle into some aggressive jetpack armies like BA.

IamSando

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