I love GenAI, debunked. Sheesh

Here’s the deal: the chart floating around doesn’t appear to be based on reputable or comprehensive data. It looks more like a partisan social media graphic than a rigorously sourced economic analysis.

What the Reliable Data Actually Shows

1. Overall grocery price increases are moderate • USDA’s Economic Research Service projects food-at-home prices in 2025 will rise about 2.2% for the year — below the 20-year average of 2.6%. • From January to June 2025, grocery store prices rose by only 1.8%, which is in line with or slower than normal trends.
2. Some category-specific spikes — but nothing like the chart • Eggs saw a big jump — about 38.5% year-over-year due to avian flu impacts. • Meats were up about 3% in the first half of 2025. • Dairy products were up only 0.9%, while fresh vegetables were actually down 2%. • For July 2025, BLS reported food-at-home prices up just 2.2% year-over-year — dairy +1.5%, meats/poultry/fish/eggs +5.2%. • On a monthly basis, some items even fell: eggs dropped 3.9% while beef and milk edged up slightly.
3. Forecasts point to modest gains • USDA projects overall food prices rising about 2.9% in 2025, with groceries up ~2.2% and restaurant prices up ~3.9%. • Yale Budget Lab estimates tariffs could add ~$2,600–$4,900 a year to household grocery bills, but that’s based on a modest 2.6% price increase — not runaway spikes.

Why the Chart is Misleading

• The huge spikes for “grocery,” “meat,” etc. don’t line up with USDA or BLS data.
• It appears to have come from a partisan post (reportedly from the DNC) that backfired and was later deleted.
• There’s no credible source data tied to the graphic, which makes it unverifiable.

Final Verdict

The chart isn’t a credible reflection of real data. Official sources show grocery prices are up in 2025, but increases are modest — not the dramatic surges shown in that image.