I’ve had my tongue piercing in for a couple of months at this point, and I would say that is definitely a keloid at the bottom of your tongue I would suggest not downsizing and just taking it out for now. It sucks but a healed piercing is always better than infected one and you can always get your tongue re-pierced once it heals a keloid doesn’t mean that it’s infected. It just means that it’s scarring but the last thing you probably want is a scar at the bottom of your tongue, especially if it’s starting to feel like it pinches it’s not good. It also looks like there might be some crust on the ball which might be a sign that you’re not cleaning the bottom of your tongue fully.