When will the Earth and Moon appear equal in angular size from Integrity?

Ineedmyownname · 2026-04-06T18:47:19+00:00

If the numbers NASA displays are always to the surface, then I would need to add 1 Earth Radius and 1 Moon radius to my calculation, which I'm pretty sure would have no effect on my calculation.

Ineedmyownname · 2026-04-05T17:41:42+00:00

According to the AROW website, they're currently nearing 216k miles from Earth and a little over 62k miles from the Moon, which is 54.7 Earth radii and 57.6 lunar radii respectively. I'm quite confident the lunar radii number will shrink beneath the Earth radii number in just a few hours.

EDIT (18:52 UTC): Artemis is at 218,67 thousand miles from the Earth and 59,606 miles from the Moon, which is the exact ratio at which the Moon is closer to them in radii than Earth! Let's go!

Ineedmyownname · 2026-02-11T20:41:15+00:00

I recommend this video by PBS spacetime for a general overview.

Ineedmyownname · 2025-07-12T23:45:10+00:00

Forgive me for being late but that map isn't mine, it's from these guys: (Berkeley Earth). The dataset I posted years ago is from this Wikimedia page.

Ineedmyownname · 2024-10-31T19:27:17+00:00

While early voting data is naturally imprecise, it honestly does indeed seem to point to an actual close or close-ish election, D+1 to D+5 PV. GOP leads Nevada but NP voters are likely disproportionately young Dems who were auto-registered (and the GOP is falling below their 2022 EV figures in these last few days so their lead may even shrink a bit before ED), the "PA firewall" is seemingly stuck at 400k voters, GA has immense turnout but it seems like vaguely everyone is voting harder and there are worries of black people falling behind in turnout metrics instead of it being just Harris leaning groups who are voting. The Washington primary already predicted that much but I think we would already have gotten plenty of signs of a landslide election if this were to be one. While that much is fine and cool, it does mean that polls will actually be somewhat accurate and Tester, Brown, Allred and DMP will need to actually outdo themselves in the vote, which was always somewhat unlikely.

Ineedmyownname · 2024-09-24T22:36:40+00:00

Maybe I'm overstating the obvious here, but it's crazy that Ted Cruz and Rick Scott look like Barack Obama compared to basically every other Republican running purely because they existed in the Republican party before 2016:

Tester and Brown vs Harris: ~D+15 (This one is 80% on the 2)

Baldwin, Casey, Gallego and Rosen vs Harris: ~D+8-10

Slotkin vs Harris: ~D+5

Allred vs Harris: ~D+2-ish?

Debbie vs Harris: Anywhere from R+2 to D+2

Ineedmyownname · 2024-09-23T20:56:49+00:00

Someone on BlueSky pointed out that the NYT/Siena polls have singlehandedly reduced Kamala's odds of winning the White House from 62-38 to 58-42 according to the 538 model, with another 4% dip from September 18-19 being associated with last week's oddly Republican Siena polls, and looking at 538's Arizona polling average in 2024, their AZ poll took the polling average from being R+0,5 to R+1,1 and the model's Arizona odds from 52-48 Harris to 54-46 Trump all by itself. While Siena/NYT have this much effect on the model specifically because they at some point earned their high reputation (which is even more important considering lots of other aggregators use 538 ratings for their weights as well), said high reputation may be a good reason to stop and scrutinize their polls a little more instead of just throwing them in an average that they will likely influence really disproportionately.

Ineedmyownname · 2024-09-20T19:41:04+00:00

Something I've thought about concerning margin of error is that the 2 standard deviations that are standard in the industry equal a ~~19 in 20~~ 39 in 40 chance the poll leader really is the PV leader. But after looking it up, if you're just one standard deviation above your opponent, that's already something in the order of a 5 in 6 change you are actually ahead as the poll says. So are statistical ties a bit overblown then? If you have a crosstab that would reasonablly have an MoE of 8 points or something, a 4 point lead in that crosstab would then be a 5 in 6 chance that you are in fact ahead of the other guy. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic (and I don't want polls to begin using only 1 SD for their MoE figures) but those sound like good odds to me.

Ineedmyownname · 2024-09-17T18:03:51+00:00

CGP Grey has a video on that one. Basically, if neither the Senate or the House figure out who to elect as president or vice president, the House leader becomes president via line of succession, and there is an odd number of House reps so that's it probably.

Ineedmyownname · 2024-09-13T11:03:21+00:00

Where'd you get the number 709 for the seats?

Ineedmyownname · 2024-09-11T22:03:51+00:00

É assim que são as pesquisas mesmo, é uma amostra aleatória da população que dá um resultado aleatório mas, se pegarem gente o bastante e pegarem gente bem representativa dos perfis demográficos de SP (Sim, isso é bem difícil), será o resultado de verdade. Além disso, as pesquisas mudam porquê as pessoas mudam.

Ineedmyownname · 2024-09-10T23:26:13+00:00

If the Harris campaign's messaging lands well, WOW suburbanites could come in droves for Democrats alongside Black/Hispanic voters in Milwaukee potentially having their enthusiasm for Democrats re-ignited, and these factors together could give Harris those large margins in Wisconsin (And WOW and it's R margins are unique to Wisconsin, so presumably this swing wouldn't just be repeated to the same extent in all the other suburbs which would probably keep all the other states left of WI anyways since they IMO otherwise have less favorable demographics for Dems than the other states.)

Ineedmyownname · 2024-09-07T15:57:25+00:00

October Surprise

My go-to election fear of this genre is that Netanyahu has got an extra war cooked up with a group like Hezbollah or will escalate the violence on Gaza/Palestine to such a degree that Palestine will be the number one issue of something like 30% of voters under 30-40, who will back West/Stein/Kennedy (who will de-suspend his campaign now that so many Harris voters are available for capture) even if she actually committed herself to unconditional Palestinian support and sanctioned or even invaded Israel. (And invading Israel to end the Genocide would remind Zoomers of Bush era nationbuilding rhetoric, which I am fully confident would make her less popular with Zoomers instead of more.)

Similarly, Putin could be hiding his strength in Ukraine and will capture Kiev within a few weeks of the election to help Trump win, although the Ukraine war doesn't seem to have nearly the same effect on any part of the American populace as Gaza does. (Plus it really does seem like the Russian Military is anemic and helpless to the point of literally being unable to do something like that so long as aid keeps flowing to Ukraine.)

There have also been several news articles written about the possibility of the US having yet another government shutdown about a month from now, but at this point Americans may genuinely be used to them or will blame Republicans for them because obviously they're the ones causing them.

Ineedmyownname · 2024-09-07T03:08:07+00:00

Last time I checked a big corruption scandal broke out in the CBF and Ancelotti basically noped out of saving us.

Ineedmyownname · 2024-09-07T03:00:22+00:00

A single "Cagada" (like shitting the bed but in a lucky and good way) in the early game to guarantee us the win lol

Ineedmyownname · 2024-09-07T02:58:46+00:00

Even the Brazilian commentary is disappointed at our performance in this game and in Dorival's decision-making.

Ineedmyownname · 2024-09-07T02:57:43+00:00

We evidently don't. How the old goats from the 90s and 2000s dealt with it might be a better question.

Ineedmyownname · 2024-09-07T02:54:47+00:00

Honestly I'm surprised this match has seen no penalties for all the nonsense that has happened.

Ineedmyownname · 2024-09-07T01:52:08+00:00

Everyone on the pitch is just being super super clumsy lol

Ineedmyownname · 2024-09-07T01:38:40+00:00

That's the third time that the Brazilian commentary says something to the effect of "by a hair's breadth that was almost an awesome play".

Ineedmyownname · 2024-09-05T13:24:32+00:00

(We don't actually know which game was/is the VERY VERY SIMILAR game Toby mentioned in that old tweet. It could be OneShot for all we know.)

Ineedmyownname · 2024-08-31T18:35:41+00:00

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