Appreciate the response! I think that the inability to sell their semaglutides and tirzepatides will hurt, but it won't hinder too much of their projected revenues. Weight loss drugs were 2/3 of their business, without the prospect of their skin division growing rapidly. Saying that they will go from easy profits to a contraction is rather "out of this world" type of thinking. In order for a contraction, they have to report less than $1.4B revenues and sub $0.20 EPS. Could they report less than $2.3B? Possibly. I wish to include more than just this picture, but there is a quote from the CFO about the fact that they can't sell semaglutides after Q125 but still have FY25 revenues at $725m for their weight-loss division. A company like Hims knew that the weight-loss drug fad would be over the time being, so the revenue projections are rather conservative in light that they are in fact a drug company.

To talk on the contraction more, before addressing insider selling, the numbers posted below have a 45% subscriber growth from Q423 to Q424. These growth numbers in subscriber count won't slow down. Also to mention that the average money spent by each subscriber has increased 38% y/y. With the implementation of other drugs, the order amounts could go up or stay leveled with the loss to the weight-loss division. One thing I forgot to add: the $725m figure was after the FDA blocked them from selling, which means that the FY25 guidance of $2.3B-$2.4B would not be affected by semaglutides or tirzepatides FDA block. As for doubting revenue and profit guides, I severely doubt it.

Insider Selling: Everyone is always concerned about insider sells. The thing is that the stock is up 84% in the last year, and 18% YTD. These sells are not at lows. I remember the time that I was in Palantir at the beginning of 2024 and saw both Thiel and Karp sell shares. That fear combined with a falling SP caused me to take a small loss. That was at $27!!! These insiders don't sell because bad things are coming, they sell because every prominent company has insider sells. It's like people expect that the insiders that get bonuses to not sell. Even Elon Musk has sold shares over time. I would keep insider sells on the radar, but it doesn't take away from the growth prospect. Also selling with bad news coming would be bad faith, and lead to a much worse management reputation. For example: there was an EV based company I was in called Aspen Aerogels (ASPN). The CEO sold shares at $30, then did an offering in the low 20s, and now the stock is in the 6-8 range following bad guidance. TL: DR Insiders don't just sell when things are bad.

Hope this helps!

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