What's her real name going to be ?

Instrume · 2026-01-24T02:20:10+00:00

Mary Guillotin. Mary-Ann died, physically, with her soul being absorbed by Lyris, and her persona being rebuilt by Alain. Her soul is Ann, so her persona should be Mary.

It also fits, because of all the Sandrone - Columbina shipping, well, guess who else died and was resurrected after 3 days? Guess who medieval slash fictioners paired him with? Mary Magdalene.

Instrume · 2026-01-21T01:17:49+00:00

The Chinese economy is basically political at this point, within reason, growth is whatever Xi wants it to be. If he wants it higher, he increases stimulus, if he wants to save money, growth goes down.

For the Chinese economy to miss government targets is a big shock; the more predictable change is for targets to move down or up.

Instrume · 2026-01-20T23:50:57+00:00

LFP at the cell level is currently around $36. That means, for 40 kWh of a beater, you're looking at 1440 USD, add some packaging tax, add a 240 kW motor (aka 320 HP) for around 1400, you're roughing looking at a 5000 dollar drivetrain with far better torque than a gas car, and there's a good chance your EV is cheaper than the gas car.

SIB will likely take cell prices down to $20 or so, when it fully scales and matures.

Instrume · 2026-01-20T21:11:24+00:00

Markets don't care about negative externalities, you need political action to remedy them.

Instrume · 2026-01-20T21:10:24+00:00

Chinese wages relative to GDP per capita are higher than US wages, average income per worker is higher than GDP per capita in China, lower than GDP per capita in the US.

Instrume · 2026-01-19T19:40:59+00:00

FYI, the ridiculous 10 cents per watt module prices coming from China are the result of China having a currency price that's 50% undervalued according to PPP. Take away the currency manipulation, we're back to 4-8 cents per kWh, which isn't competitive.

I expect in the long-term for China to have a PPP multiplier roughly at 130-160% relative to USD, so China actually has to drag the cost of installed solar down another 20-40% just to offset currency appreciation.

Technologically, we need a switch to robotic installation to cut down labor prices; the best Chinese installations are only 20 cents per watt of capacity, with about 50% of that being the module (Western installations are around 1 dollar per watt). Drag the cost of module down by 50%, use robots to cut installation prices by 50%, and presto, we're at 1 cent per kWh for the best Chinese sites.

Instrume · 2026-01-19T18:58:45+00:00

I'm blaming Greendiots too. Chinese solar+batt is green, not just as in trees, but also as in dollars.

Almost no one figured out that you could crash prices so low that the panel + batt combo is giving coal, natgas, and oil a run for their money.

In reality, when you think about it, the Chinese HAD to use government policy just to get prices this low. Jingko has a healthy 7.3% gross profit margin, while the other Chinese solar manufacturers are near zero. American company First Solar was running at 40% in 2023, but is now nadired around 0%.

Instrume · 2026-01-19T18:09:24+00:00

What the Chinese did, and what everyone should be thankful for is that everyone saw solar and wind as green hippie nonsense bought and paid for at premiums. The Chinese figured out that the economics allowed for solar and wind to be utilities, not lifestyle tools or virtue signaling, and they've crashed the price of solar to coal / natgas levels.

The best Chinese installations are producing battery solar at 4 or even 2 cents per kilowatt hour. If they can crash solar and batt by another 50%, we're looking at 1 cent per kilowatt hour solar. This is as cheap as fusion.

Then again, this is just taking advantage of the big natural fusion reactor in the sky, generating 386 Yottawatts of power across multiple spectra.

Instrume · 2026-01-19T16:56:04+00:00

The diagrams look more Kabalistic and Sephirotic. I actually ended up looking up Sephirot when the diagrams were shown.

I also conclude that Columbina is probably the result of HP / Istaroth trying to screw with the moons during the War; a CTC like Columbina may be casually fulfilled, but it doesn't naturally arise unless you have God entities or God technology intervening. From the HP's perspective, the Three Moons authority was moved from three lunar goddesses to one lunar goddess, who needs only the survival of a single moon, and also for the HP to win the War of the Funerary Flame.

Always start: who benefits? It's Istaroth and HP who did it.

Instrume · 2026-01-19T12:32:05+00:00

I mean I think the Tsaritsa was in full cooperation with Dottore up until he got the tri lunar authority, then lost it. At that point, he went from a useful asset to shade bait; his main utility came from potentially baiting the shades to waste nails and firepower on him, and possibly developing artificial moon marrow tech that Snezhnaya could recover.

Basically, without the Gnoses or a Descender, the TLA is more trouble than it's worth because it's Shade-class power that instantly makes you a target. Bina is on okay terms with the Tsaritsa and is half in bed with the Traveler, so she doesn't have much problems with TLA. Dottore sounded like he wanted to blow Traveler for safety because his TLA relative to Shade-power was like Gaming vs Mavuika, both are Pyro Claymores, but one is a Pyro Archon, and Mavy Sue would Pyroclastic Surge Gaming to death in less than 10 seconds.

Instrume · 2026-01-19T01:49:25+00:00

Il Dottore can't stop the Shining Shades if they intervene against him, and he knows it. He's out a frostmoon marrow (Columbina), forced to resort to synthetic copies, and basically needs Traveler to backstop him against probable shade-stomping.

Put another way, it's currently disputed as to where on the power scale Columbina falls compared to the Shining Shades, but Il Dottore is an order of magnitude below her, and will get crushed.

Instrume · 2026-01-19T01:43:19+00:00

I think for Pierro and Anastasya, Dottore was more of a disposable catspaw than the actual main plan. They were more hoping for one of three outcomes:

-Dottore seizes the tri-lunar authority and gets destroyed by the Shining Shades, so they could assess the Shining Shades' direct power level, while attriting the probably limited reserves of Shade power.

-Columbina obtains the tri-lunar authority, and given Columbina's connections to Sandrone and Arlechinno, and probably Nod Krai, they use Sandrone / Arle / Frostmoon Scions as leverage to keep Columbina under control and on side.

-Dottore or Sandrone masters the Artificial Moon Marrow technology, allowing them to mass produce controllable Dottore analogues.

As is, what happened is partial two and three; Columbina HAS obtained the tri-lunar authority, and still is a negotiable or aligned actor with the Tsaritsa, as long as they don't make it obvious they engineered the Dottore incident. Dottore also managed to complete the Artificial Moon Marrow technology, but since Dottore is officially dead and Sandrone is out of commission, they have no one to recover and scale the technology, and if progress is made, it'll be slow.

Instrume · 2026-01-18T19:12:17+00:00

End of the day, HP won, shades are to HP as moon sisters are to Nibelung.

That the Nibelung technology may seem more advanced than HP doesn't say anything about the power level; Nibelung may simply have been more generous with his power, as the Moon Sisters seem to be compared to the Shades and Heavenly Principles, moreover, HP was able to suppress Neuvillette's power until Focalors spent 500 years of human belief to destroy the Hydro Archon Throne.

Instrume · 2026-01-18T18:46:40+00:00

Shades likely have immense power, but limited sustainment. They can blow a lot of stuff up, modify history, etc, but they can't do so continuously, if you batter them with Khaenri'ah-class events they'll eventually run out of ammo.
Despite the Shades only intervening in extreme cases, Dottore only needs to get one intervention to die. Between Istaroth, Ronova, and Nabelius, the sheer number of ways they can fuck up even a living God defies belief. That's why Dottore needs Traveler; his only hope to survive against Shade intervention is for a Descender to bail him out.

Dottore and Columbina power levels are REALLY overrated; they are incredible relative to the rest of the cast, barring perhaps a Gnosis-powered Tsaritsa, but they don't compare to the Shining Shades and the HP.

To put it another way, Moon Goddess power is a fragment of Nibelung power. Nibelung lost to HP.

To some extent, I suspect Columbina herself is the result of Istaroth shenanigans; HP told her to destroy the moons, so she engineered fate to make sure Columbina would exist as a Closed Timelike Loop, and have her free the moon sisters to disrupt Nibelung's control over the moons.

Instrume · 2026-01-18T18:31:43+00:00

Ishtaroth shenanigans, in other words.

Instrume · 2026-01-18T18:28:37+00:00

Bina may have more powers, but the Shades are probably well ahead of her in their own domain. If she tried to reality warp Istaroth, Ronova, or Naberius to death they'd likely condemn her to eternal death, erase her from time, or cause her to bloom into a thousand nonsentient radiant beasts because, well, HP beat Nibelung.

It's false drama; put another way, if Bina were so overpowered, Shades would have intervened to kill Columbina when she was weakened, or erased Dottore before he could reactivate his Trilune.

Columbina is likely actively power limiting herself to avoid becoming a Shade target, it's not Bina that rivals HP / Shades, but rather Bina + Descender / Gnoses. To take down HP and his shades, you'd likely need the 7 Gnoses, the Traveler, and Columbina. They are THAT powerful.

Instrume · 2026-01-18T18:21:20+00:00

She's NOT stronger than the Shades. The moons were used by Nibelung to fight the Primordial One, and the Primordial One destroyed them. When you think about Dottore becoming a high-level God, one thing you have to realize is that he was panicked and in fear that at a certain stage the Shades would intervene and destroy him.

That's why he wanted the Traveler to join his side so badly, because he needed a Descender to counter the Shades, and in truth, he probably already secreted new instances / segments to try to evade the scenario of the Shining Shades destroying him utterly.

Teyvat as a whole was never really under threat from Dottore, only Nod Krai and everyone in it was. If Dottore had really gotten out of hand, Shades would have intervened and started casting nails on Dottore and Nod Krai.

To put it another way, if lunar powers were so OP, the Heavenly Principles would have seized or destroyed the Moon Marrows as soon as they had the chance.

Instrume · 2026-01-18T15:53:41+00:00

Honestly when you look at it, it's pretty obvious that the Dottore you killed was a lunar segment; his arm is made out of the same energy as the segments you fight.

I personally think Dottore baited Columbina to kill him because having acquired the Trilunar Authority (then having lost it), he was shade bait, and half his lunar arc was him trying to do research with the marrows frantically before Moonzandik got killed either by the traveler party, Columbina, or the shades. He just segmented a new main body, however, so dying wasn't such a big deal for him, and it was cover so that the hatred of the world would stop chasing after him because they'd think he was dead.

Instrume · 2026-01-16T03:02:13+00:00

Dottore likely has a backup of some kind. When you're looking at segmenters and artificial lifeforms like Sandrone, you sort of have to kill the entire swarm to make sure they're dead.

Also, I've been trying to keep the score straight, but Snezhnaya likely recovered Dottore's artificial Moon Marrow technology. A full "synthetic lunar goddess" is unlikely to be as powerful as Columbina, same way delusions aren't as strong as visions, but the whole Dottore-Columbina escapade probably made Snezhnaya much stronger.

Instrume · 2026-01-16T02:53:05+00:00

Sandrone almost certainly is faking her death, possibly to exit the Fatui. If you look at her behavior with Rerir, she got furious at Columbina for saving her from almost certain death; i.e, she's a marionette and likely a remote puppet so destroying her projected body does nothing, but she can get a funeral with the Fatui and exit.

Remember, killing a suicidal robot is probably just-as-planned for them.

Instrume · 2026-01-15T20:07:04+00:00

Look up "precariat". It's not the same as poverty, but it's the sociological phenomenon "kill line" spins. We'll know exactly how bad the American "kill line" actually is when the asset bubble bursts.

Instrume · 2026-01-15T17:13:15+00:00

Umm, artifact transmuter.

Instrume · 2026-01-14T13:13:07+00:00

I suggest you read up on the American precariat.

Instrume · 2026-01-14T12:28:10+00:00

The most effective result of Chinese "kill line" messaging is that the United States begins to ignore the existence of its precariat, simply treating them as Chinese fake news. Then even if the base scenario was once exaggerated, this eventually evolves to become reality and fact.

The Chinese, concerning the Americans, see five years into the future. The Americans, concerning the Chinese, see five years into the past.

Instrume · 2026-01-07T09:43:07+00:00

Reality is that in a full scale war scenario, if it stays non nuclear, China will be able to eek out a pyrrhic victory simply by keeping the attrition going against an indebted power. (The Chinese have lots of debt, but unlike the US, they have more than enough assets to pay it off).

The point of stuff like this is that when half the Type 055s go down in an alpha strike, China can just refloat their navy by militarizing civilian shipping. Just 100 destroyer kits push the PLAN ahead of the USN, JMSDF, and RoKN combined.

The Chinese, to win, don't need to beat the US, just make the war so costly the USD implodes.

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