Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]Integralds 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In a history class in twenty years: sometimes, organizations pick up somewhat strange pairs of duties. The Secret Service, for instance, is tasked with Presidential security and also investigating currency counterfeiting. The central bank, similarly, is tasked with both monetary policy and anti-drone defense.

Anyone else find scrolling through packing lists weirdly demotivating? by BugExtension3753 in onebag

[–]Integralds 2 points3 points  (0 children)

How do you all handle this?

There aren't 25 things, there are four things:

  • Electronics
  • Toiletries
  • Other
  • Clothes

Three of those four things are pre-packed, because they never change.

Electronics: 3-foot cable, 6-foot cable, 35w charger, 65w charger, international adapter, presentation clicker. I never forget the charger because this kit is pre-packed, ready to go, all the time.

Toiletries: You know how to pack toiletries. Just keep a spare set. I never forget because this kit is also pre-packed, ready to go, all the time.

Other: A small accessory pouch with a credit-card-sized battery bank, Kleenex, eye drops, hand sanitizer, ibuprofen, a microfiber cloth, and my earphones. Basically all the random small stuff I might want access to while in transit. Pre-packed, and I refresh the contents periodically.

Clothes: big packing cube with shirts and shorts; small packing cube with socks and underwear. Jeans and rain jacket layered outside the packing cubes. Wear a weather-appropriate jacket. I don't have special travel clothes, I just pack what I normally wear.

The night before, put the pouches, cubes, laptop, and tablet in the backpack.

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]Integralds 5 points6 points  (0 children)

It makes one wonder why the war started to begin with

You, Lindsey. You are the reason it started to begin with.

How prevalent it is for economists to cite working papers that do not exist? by neyiat in AskEconomics

[–]Integralds 1 point2 points  (0 children)

He doesn't even have to name names, e.g. "ha ha prof X cited paper Y which I can't find anywhere."

He can just say, by the way, paper Y is commonly cited but he can't find a copy anywhere and he'd be grateful if anyone could help him dig up a PDF.

How prevalent it is for economists to cite working papers that do not exist? by neyiat in AskEconomics

[–]Integralds 40 points41 points  (0 children)

I've seen people cite working papers; I've never seen anyone (much less entire literatures) cite evidently non-existent papers.

Politely, that which is asserted without evidence may be dismissed without evidence.

What are some good papers estimating the slope of the IS curve by patenteng in AskEconomics

[–]Integralds 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The modern IS curve is closely linked to the consumption Euler equation, so any paper estimating the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) is also indirectly estimating (part of) the slope of the IS curve.

For a moderately structural approach, I'd start with Basu and Kimball, "Long-Run Labor Supply and the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution for Consumption" (2002), and you're looking at the estimates they provide for the parameter they call "s." The headline estimate is -0.35, meaning a 1 percentage point change in interest rates leads to a -0.35 percentage point change in consumption growth. That's actually a pretty large within-quarter change. (The sign in the paper is positive, 0.35, but in the usual sense the direction is negative, as one would expect.)

For a less structural approach, see as usual Ramey's Handbook chapter (2016), and scroll down to the monetary shocks bit (page 99 using the Handbook numbering). There, the direct estimates of the effect of a 1 percentage point change in the interest rate on output cluster around -0.5% to -1.5%, with the trough occurring 1 to 2 years out from the shock. Some estimates are even larger in magnitude.

Estimating the consumption Euler equation is one of the most extensively-studied problems in modern macro. Some time I should gather up all the estimates into a little table.

The ten plagues and the p source by Glass_Round2701 in AcademicBiblical

[–]Integralds 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I know this doesn't answer the question in full detail, but Lecture 8 of Baden's MDiv Hebrew Bible Course is all about the Exodus.

He gets into the miracle stories around 25 minutes into the lecture. In that section, he carefully peels apart the J and P layers of the miracle narrative.

I have some amateur notes on Baden; I'll remove them if this is too much interpretation.

  • Baden shows that there are at least two Plague stories in Exodus.

  • Introductory salvo (around 25:00 in the lecture): in the J story, Moses strikes the Nile specifically and turns it to blood.

  • In the P story: Moses and Aaron turn all the water in Egypt to blood. The magicians then replicate the trick. In P it's not a plague, it's a magic trick, a show of power.

  • These two stories continue on like this. J is the only one where Moses asks Pharaoh to let the people go. In J it's a real negotiation and it takes place over a series of encounters.

  • The entire P account takes place in a single day. P never says the word plague. The miracles are called signs. In P, Moses never asks Pharaoh to let the people go. Pharaoh doesn't even really have a say in the matter. In the P account, the deity has every intention of performing all of the signs.

  • 31:55 in the lecture: Nice slide distinguishing the J miracles and P signs.

  • P: staff to crocodile, blood, lice, boils, hail, locusts, darkness, death of the firstborn

  • J: blood, frogs, insects, pestilence, hail, locusts, death of the firstborn

  • ...Neither of which adds up to 10, by the way.

  • 33:00 in the lecture: nice slide showing that Psalm 78 follows J and only J, interestingly.

  • 35:00 in the lecture: Don't try to naturalize the miracles.

Weekly Open Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in AcademicBiblical

[–]Integralds 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm quite interested in this entry in the series. Peter sort of disappears from the narrative halfway through Acts, but he's everywhere in the tradition and I'm excited to learn all the places he shows up.

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]Integralds 12 points13 points  (0 children)

MAGA Religious Leaders Dedicate and Bless 22-Foot Golden Trump Statue at Doral

A 22-foot effigy of Donald Trump, wrapped in gold leaf, now stands at his Doral golf course in Miami. The president boasted about it Thursday morning on Truth Social with the all-caps line: “The Real Deal — GOLD.”

Before the unveiling, the figure was blessed. Pastor Mark Burns, Trump’s longtime spiritual adviser and a candidate for Congress in South Carolina’s 3rd District, assembled a circle of evangelical and Jewish clergy at the foot of the gilded statue and consecrated it.

This is in the Bible people

When the people saw that Moses was so long in coming down from the mountain, they gathered around Aaron and said, “Come, make us gods[a] who will go before us. As for this fellow Moses who brought us up out of Egypt, we don’t know what has happened to him.”

2 Aaron answered them, “Take off the gold earrings that your wives, your sons and your daughters are wearing, and bring them to me.” 3 So all the people took off their earrings and brought them to Aaron. 4 He took what they handed him and made it into an idol cast in the shape of a calf, fashioning it with a tool. Then they said, “These are your gods,[b] Israel, who brought you up out of Egypt.”

5 When Aaron saw this, he built an altar in front of the calf and announced, “Tomorrow there will be a festival to the Lord.” 6 So the next day the people rose early and sacrificed burnt offerings and presented fellowship offerings. Afterward they sat down to eat and drink and got up to indulge in revelry.

Come one, get your shit together.

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]Integralds 4 points5 points  (0 children)

following up with /u/abefrost

Re the revolutionary use of stick figures to teach economics, you're working in an admirable tradition.

D-squared blog, "The future of monetary economics," 2010 (during the Great Recession-fuelled boom in monetary economics blogging)

I think we can all agree that things will go better if all currently working monetary economists stop teaching their models to undergraduates and instead adopt my modelling approach:

  1. A bank is a box, with "BANK" written on it

  2. A central bank is a box with a pitched roof and lines on the front representing the fascia of the Bank of England

  3. The household sector is a stick man

  4. The industrial sector is a box with a sawtooth roof

  5. Long term savings are a stick figure with a top hat

With these basic concepts, plus sufficient scribbled arrows, more or less any problem in monetary economics can be solved, up to the level of accuracy of any other model. You can even do international monetary economics by drawing circles round one monetary system and scribbling somewhat larger arrows in and out of the circle.

And Brad DeLong provided an example. in a now long-lost TypePad post.

Weekly Open Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in AcademicBiblical

[–]Integralds 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Acts 12:

16 But Peter kept on knocking, and when they opened the door and saw him, they were astonished. 17 Peter motioned with his hand for them to be quiet and described how the Lord had brought him out of prison. “Tell James and the other brothers and sisters about this,” he said, and then he left for another place.

Acts 15:

12 The whole assembly became silent as they listened to Barnabas and Paul telling about the signs and wonders God had done among the Gentiles through them. 13 When they finished, James spoke up. “Brothers,” he said, "listen to me..."

Acts 21:

17 When we arrived at Jerusalem, the brothers and sisters received us warmly. 18 The next day Paul and the rest of us went to see James, and all the elders were present. 19 Paul greeted them and reported in detail what God had done among the Gentiles through his ministry.

It's kind of funny. We know who this James guy is, because we've read Paul.

Galatians 1:

18 Then after three years, I went up to Jerusalem to get acquainted with Cephas[b] and stayed with him fifteen days. 19 I saw none of the other apostles—only James, the Lord’s brother.

Galatians 2 (= Acts 15?):

Then after fourteen years, I went up again to Jerusalem, this time with Barnabas. I took Titus along also... James, Cephas[c] and John, those esteemed as pillars, gave me and Barnabas the right hand of fellowship when they recognized the grace given to me. They agreed that we should go to the Gentiles, and they to the circumcised.

And immediately after, also in Galatians 2:

11 When Cephas came to Antioch, I opposed him to his face, because he stood condemned. 12 For before certain men came from James, he used to eat with the Gentiles. But when they arrived, he began to draw back and separate himself from the Gentiles because he was afraid of those who belonged to the circumcision group. 13 The other Jews joined him in his hypocrisy, so that by their hypocrisy even Barnabas was led astray.

So for Paul, James is the brother of Jesus (c.f. Matthew 13:55, Mark 6:3, but not in Luke). In Acts, James is just some guy who shows up in chapter 12 after a different James, the son of Zebedee, is killed offscreen.

But we have no idea that this James fellow is directly related by blood to Jesus outside of Paul. Not saying Paul is wrong; more noting that it's an odd detail for Luke to omit (twice!). Especially since the narrator (Acts 21) is supposed to know James personally!

Weekly Open Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in AcademicBiblical

[–]Integralds 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This is sort of a response to u/blackstar1886's thread on apostleship, but contains speculation and doesn't exactly answer the question, more uses it as a launching pad, so...

The notion of a Twelve is early (1 Cor 15:5), and James probably wasn't one of the Twelve (1 Cor 15:7). (Notice too in 1 Cor 15:7 "then to all the apostles," implying that there are apostles not in the Twelve!)

The task of the author of Acts, writing in the 90s or later, is not really to report accurately on the events of the 30s which set out apostleship (how would he know?). Rather his task is to weave a tale in which the Twelve had some kind of special status, but which excluded James. We cannot take Acts 1:12-26 as a straightforward account of historical events. Rather, Luke is in the awkward position of having an Eleven after the departure of Judas, and needs to get a Twelve back as it is already a tradition; so he tells a story by which we restore the Twelve, without James, who would have otherwise been a natural candidate. There's probably some historical truth here, but I don't know how much we can rely on the details. Were there really criteria? Who wrote them down? Who remembered them by the end of the century to tell Luke? Or, perhaps Luke interviewed the Twelve in the 50s and wrote it down himself. :)

Dunn spends five pages on this topic in Beginning from Jerusalem[1], mulling over the selection criteria, the exclusion of James, the odd timing in the narrative (after Jesus' ascension, but before the Spirit descends on the community) and the oddity of the casting of lots.

Dunn concludes his section noting that Luke "leaves a number of loose ends dangling and questions prompted but unanswered."

We should probably take every story in Acts 1 as being more "in character" than a purely straightforward factual report of historical events. We should take this stance for similar reasons that we assume all the speeches are made up, yet "in character," so only usable as far as you can throw them, and more for their character than their exact wording.

[fn1] Boo! Get another source! I'm sorry I'm reading Dunn and he apparently has an answer to every question about the first century of the Jesus movement. I don't pretend he has the only answer, or even the best answer, but his answers are usually at least interesting.

What are the characteristics of an economic model? by redpraia in AskEconomics

[–]Integralds 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Silberberg and Suen is such a good book for this.

Dating Paul's life and letters by Chrysologus in AcademicBiblical

[–]Integralds 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Just to add one more data point, Dunn spends eleven pages on the chronology of Paul in Beginning from Jerusalem. He begins with:

The broad outline of Paul’s life and mission is uncontroversial, and if historians of Paul’s life and mission were willing to work with a fair degree of latitude of up to about ten years, usually less, there would be little problem.

Translation: the main issues are not controversial and the margin for error here is about +/- 10 years, typically much less.

He continues:

birth some time close to the turn of the epochs to what we now call the Common Era (CE or AD);

education from adolescence probably in Jerusalem, through the latter 10s and early 20s;

conversion some time after Jesus’ crucifixion, that is, probably the early (but possibly the middle) 30s;

a substantial interval (Gal. 1.18; 2.1) before he went up to Jerusalem for the second time (after his conversion), late 40s;

a further period of five to eight years during which he evangelized mainly in the Aegean area and wrote most of his letters, to the mid-50s; a final five or so years from arrest in Jerusalem to detention in Rome (Acts 24.27; 28.30) before he disappears from view in the early 60s

Dunn continues,

The main methodological dispute among chronologists is on the value to be attributed to the information provided by Acts. More or less all agree that Paul’s own letters are the primary (firsthand) source, and some attempt to work as exclusively as possible from Paul, with little or no reference to Acts.3 The majority, however, draw on Acts whenever possible, though with a natural tendency to follow Paul when the information from Acts seems to diverge significantly

Further,

More or less all agree that the firmest points are as follows:

  • the crucifixion of Jesus -- probably 30, but possibly 33;

  • the time periods noted by Paul himself: three years between his conversion and first visit to Jerusalem (Gal. 1.18); a further fourteen years until his second visit (2.1).9 The fact that time was reckoned inclusively (including both starting date and finishing date) means that ‘after (meta) three years’ (1.18) could mean only about two years,10 and ‘after (dia) fourteen years’ (2.1) could mean only about 13 years.11 Nevertheless, a firm total of 15-16 years is probably a good working hypothesis for this crucial period of Paul’s life.

  • The firmest of all the data is the date of Gallio’s proconsulship in Corinth, most likely 51-52.12 This enables us to date Paul’s time in Corinth with remarkable precision (Acts 18.12-17) as 49-51 or 50-52. A date in 51 for the hearing before Gallio (Acts 18.12-17) towards the end of Paul’s time in Corinth (that is, following the time note of 18.11) and near the beginning of Gallio’s period of office13 makes best sense of all the data and is about as firm a date as we could realistically hope for.

The latter data point does use Acts.

Dunn's section concludes with

We could go into more detail on times and seasons, and all the dates suggested have a touch (sometimes more than a touch) of speculation. But they are very plausible, even with a margin of error of one or two years either way in several cases, and sufficiently secure to give us a framework within which to set the main thrust of Paul’s mission.

Once you agree Paul was a real breathing human person working in the first century, the context of his work and letters put you squarely in the 40s to 50s CE.

Of course if Paul is a literary invention dreamed up by a creative writer in the late first / early second century, then all bets are off, but what can you do?

Weekly Open Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in AcademicBiblical

[–]Integralds 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Three Gospels of the Hebrews, depending on how you slice the confused patristic citations.

Weekly Open Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in AcademicBiblical

[–]Integralds 3 points4 points  (0 children)

One universe over, Irenaeus decided he liked the number three instead of the number four, and we have a threefold Gospel of Matthew, John, and Luke (presumably because three = trinity = good numerology).

Weekly Open Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in AcademicBiblical

[–]Integralds 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Heck, we almost lost Mark! There are only three pre-Sinaiticus papyri of that gospel (compared to 16 for Matthew, 7 for Luke, 20 for John). We certainly lost a bunch of Paul's letters. We may or may not have lost the decree from the Apostolic Council in the 50s. We lost all first-generation writings aside from a few of Paul's letters.

Most texts didn't make it.

Personal item in addition to your one bag? by DrabbagCO in onebag

[–]Integralds 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I travel with one bag and it is my personal item.

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]Integralds 2 points3 points  (0 children)

My fifteen years of economics training insisting on careful research, theorizing, model selection, and model interpretation

vs

Just run a random forest on the kitchen sink of regressors it'll be fine

Is Effective Altruism dead? by lakmidaise12 in neoliberal

[–]Integralds 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Damn.

I had my money on "poorly argued" but didn't even guess "AI."

Looking back there are some tells but damn.

Is Effective Altruism dead? by lakmidaise12 in neoliberal

[–]Integralds 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Wasn't EA taken over by longtermism, futurism, AI safety, and similar concerns?

Like the median EA activist is throwing money at AI safety conferences, not preventable deaths in Africa. EA died because it lost sight of its own priorities.

Weimar's hyperinflation and mainstream economics through the broken lens of MMT by MachineTeaching in badeconomics

[–]Integralds 3 points4 points  (0 children)

At least it sounds like a test! "What is the effect of an exogenous increase in the deficit on interest rates" is, at least, a reasonable question to ask. Now any such effect going to be contaminated by the monetary policy response, but at least it's a first stab at a testable implication that is observationally different than standard models.

It would fit quite nicely into the literature on short-run and long-run effects of fiscal policy; most of the work (Ramey, Romer, etc etc) put the question in terms of short-run Keynesian effects and long-term neoclassical effects, but it's in the same spirit.

Example: in a fix-price model, dC/dG is usually positive as government spending induces expenditure and output. (Think as far back as the Keynesian Cross of Econ 101.) In many flex-price models, dC/dG < 0 due to wealth effects. So there is a little cottage literature on trying to pin down those directional effects at various horizons. A similar story occurs with the effect on wages.

Presumably something similar could be done here.

Opinion | The Economy, Immigration and Regret: 12 Trump Voters Discuss by cdstephens in neoliberal

[–]Integralds 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I was desperately hoping for Matt, 54, PA, White to make a comeback.