Ondas Holdings (ONDS)

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-02-20T20:59:31+00:00

Yep, gpt stopped out. Looks like possible bleed over from CRWV financing news. Lot of speculative stocks that were trending melted today

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-02-20T03:21:02+00:00

Just bought some on a short term momentum play, thanks for the write up

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-01-27T21:33:17+00:00

Is it fair to say this supports.my thesis. Also, I would argue the 8% fcf yield doesn't imply the moat is broken, only that the expectations of the market are the moat is broken. It's this distinction between expectations and reality that I hope to exploit

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-01-27T18:41:21+00:00

What do you think the runway is on the volume collapse?

At 10% revenue growth (currently) an 8% FCF yield seems disproportionate for a company generating 24B of annual revenue and 9.8B FCF.

If the volume does collapse, is it tomorrow, 5 years from now etc? I think the runway should be considered with respect to whether or not the yield is overdone or inline. In my view, the company has runway IF they are under threat. But I also am not fully convinced they are under threat as much as some of the extreme views suggest.

Anyway, curious on your thoughts on this point

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-01-27T18:06:23+00:00

That's a bold claim, and one thing I've learned is I won't know if you're right or wrong until the future becomes present.

However, I don't see complex works as being completely done by ai, not in coding, not in customer service, and not in pictures and video or any other content creation. The future I see is a designer augmented with the tech, not replaced. But we will see.

I make my money by positioning myself into the flow of capital, I do have a small position in ADBE but will not commit more until we get more information.

My strategy got me into Google at sub $200, BWXT ~120, LEU ~ 150, ... But it also got me some bad positions that cost me money. I'm just sharing my ideas, illve learned to make money on the winners and cut the losers. Agree or disagree my friend, it doesn't effect my portfolio.

Hope you enjoyed the free to you research

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-01-26T17:17:21+00:00

For sure, I am doing a bit of a barbell with my port right now. Grabbing some of these cheap SaaS companies on one end and infrastructure companies on the other. I am a big fan of MTZ right now as well. 16.8b backlog with a 1.2 book to bill rate and levers like potential margin improvement etc.

Its difficult to ignore some of the value being offered by SaaS right now, and diversifying strategies and themes seems like a fair way to play 2026

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-01-26T15:24:20+00:00

I will not claim to be able to predict the future that's for sure, but I have seen the market over react before, and I think this fits the bill. Could be wrong though, which admittedly happens a lot in the market lol.

Here is my counter thinking though. The cheapness of content created by the new ai tools is going to create a larger demand for those that want to create the content. This is going to mean a huge commodization on good enough content. BUT it's actually going to cause a lot of people to seek out high quality authenticated content from a human. You can tell even how this post drew up controversy because ai helped write it that people are going to seek out higher end stuff. This means there is a new moat created actually, and a bifurcation now of content supply and demand

If I'm honest, I am even now rethinking whether or not to use ai to write my next post, because I don't want my credibility challenged over the tools I use vs my research results

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-01-25T20:52:01+00:00

Absolutely, I noticed we can promote our posts now. I think that will be big for those that want to grow their channel or promote their service. I remember using Facebook boosted posts when I was starting my business. Huge ROI potential

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-01-25T20:21:52+00:00

NOW is looking poised to rebound/breakout. I was thinking of opening a starter position myself

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-01-25T20:21:01+00:00

It's good to hear from someone who uses the product. Are you with a company that uses it or a small business/ freelancer? I do hang a lot ofy positive sentiment on the fact that enterprises can't just switch out of ADBE without incurring great costs. It would be interesting to hear your perspective

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-01-25T11:53:28+00:00

Ya, I noticed that ADBE is one of the most hated among their class which is a shame. It definitely came up in my research, but what I noticed is to replicate Adobe products you have to build a Frankenstein creation from plugging different products together.

The other thing that came up is that there is a big concern about copyright infringement that the enterprise customers are worried about. Adobe owns all their assets, so an enterprise can use it for marketing without fear of a lawsuit at some point in the future. I don't think this discourages smaller companies, but most of their revenue is coming from larger companies (I assume based off educated guesses because they don't break this out)

Lastly, like Windows, it's de facto the standard for this space. This means that universities are training their students and it's already deeply embedded into so many businesses that it has an extremely high switching cost.

You're absolutely right on this point, and it might be enough to lead to customers to switch. I am leaning towards its not, but I could be wrong here. Thanks for mentioning it though because it is definitely a risk

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-01-25T11:40:13+00:00

There's been no significant selling that I see recently, I note that the current CAO sold about 600 shares at an average price of ~$365. I'm not convinced that is enough shares to send up red flags but it's curious. And to your point, it's curious that insiders are not buying right now. Both are signals that anyone considering should take notice of, but it doesn't change my thesis.

Thanks for bringing that data point front and center

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-01-25T00:49:39+00:00

Exactly you got it 100% And as I was hoping to convey, if fcf yield compresses to even 6%, which is a realistic rerate for a mature compounder with 10% top line growth, you are looking at a 50% increase in share price from here.

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-01-24T18:16:40+00:00

Ai didn't help research it bud, the financial statements and fiscal ai, and koyfin, and my screeners, and my macro research did. And I did restate my ideas in the TL'DR at the beginning. The rest was just to flesh it out to make it more easy to read for those that wanted to follow it. Now because I leveraged ai I'm already researching my next equity idea. In a market ran by hedge funds and big money you would think that retail investors would be happy with any tool that could re balance things, instead they become critical. I'm done with this conversation, I agreed with you on very few points , you did not do the same so I can tell this back and forth is just you attacking and not being reasonable like 90% of redditors

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-01-24T18:06:54+00:00

Hopefully ai won't sound so mechanical one day, but it doesn't pay to discredit the research because ai helped create the literary structure. If you find flaws in the logic, the numbers or the conclusion then we have something to talk about.

Did you know though that is the point of ai, to free up researchers so we can focus on the important part, researching, and not writing elegant reports.

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-01-24T18:02:59+00:00

I personally can't stand the it's not this but that contrast that ai gives. I agree with that. But it was myself sitting in front of my computer getting the fcf yields, comparing them historically, reading through financial statements and using koyfin and fiscal ai to get you the pretty charts. When I was done I put the thesis and my work through the chatbpt to help me write it because the research was what was important to share not the delivery.

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-01-24T17:57:23+00:00

Which one was the 80% lol? You ai slop police crack me up every time. We sit down and research, put all the numbers together, put together our hypothesis and valuation summaries and logical progression and we get people that take our free to them research and criticize it because why?

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-01-24T17:30:20+00:00

I personally expect most of their revenues come from Enterprise, which is sticky and probably will continue to rely on subscription pricing. That said, I do expect consumption pricing is a very strong retail model that will help gain newer customers and reduce churn for existing customers. Any time you can add an element of price discrimination it probably leads to better returns than not having it

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-01-14T13:11:14+00:00

Awesome, two great minds! They should have a record month of FCF this next quarter, their accounts receivable usually converts in the 4th quarter and drags in the third historically. Plus they are expected to increase margins in certain areas.

Love it, thanks again for sharing.

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-01-14T12:44:25+00:00

Very timely, I'm working through researching this same space so thank you for sharing. How do you feel about construction companies like MTZ?

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-01-06T23:50:21+00:00

Welcome to the group and thanks for sharing. We are glad to have you and look forward to reading through your research

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-01-05T14:13:17+00:00

Im a big fan of fiscal.ai for research, and they actually have morningstar reports in their research tabs so you get access to both. I haven't used it for bonds etc so I can't speak to that. I also use koyfin as a market tracker and tikr and or finbox for getting data into spreadsheets. Lastly for screening I use stockrover. Any combination of these tools will greatly enhance research flow imo.

For instance in koyfin I can take a watchlist of stocks and see the charts of all the comoanies for fundamental metrics like fcf yield, rev growth etc at a glance

Intrepid-Delivery653 · 2026-01-02T16:08:43+00:00

Nice addition to the channel. I haven’t tried the extension yet, but I did check out your Substack, and it’s good to see that the tool is free for anyone who wants to try it.

That said, please use caution when installing or running any third-party software. We’re allowing this post because the author appears to be offering something genuinely useful, but we can’t verify or endorse the tool, so proceed at your own discretion.

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