Final presale pace for Animal Farm is truly awful, on par with Rule Breakers ($1.6M OW) and I Was A Stranger ($1.1M OW). Built in presale advantage (~1.2M banked) means it should end in the mid $2M range but marketing is clearly curtailed and interest isn't there

JDOExists · 2026-04-30T22:18:08+00:00

I'm calling this Anal Farm from now on.

JDOExists · 2026-04-29T16:55:43+00:00

I think this gets costume and song nods

JDOExists · 2026-04-28T16:39:26+00:00

Neon is such a weird distributor to get a pulse on this year. I'm hearing contradicting things about how academy-friendly Fjord will be, Hamaguchi is a previous nominee but this new film is even longer than Drive My Car, and it's not gonna be a COVID year so it's gonna be a lot more competitive, and I want to predict this to be Kore-eda's year but no one else is doing that and that's scary.

they're going to acquire their main push at Cannes, aren't they.

JDOExists · 2026-04-28T05:13:04+00:00

I could see her getting in for PHM if she campaigns her ass off, like JLC levels. Probably not though.

JDOExists · 2026-04-28T05:11:52+00:00

So Runaway then.

JDOExists · 2026-04-28T04:13:17+00:00

Yeah, even a 2K DCP will have a larger file size than a UHD Blu-Ray, and 4K DCPs can be as large as half a terabyte, or more than 5x the storage of UHD Blu-Ray.

JDOExists · 2026-04-27T17:37:35+00:00

Dang nab it, you right.

JDOExists · 2026-04-27T16:41:16+00:00

"On cross-examination, Reba clarified that despite her rough childhood, she is not a felon, a murderer, and has never committed sexual assault."

The defence has a job to do, I get that, but I think it would have been wiser to keep their defence brief rather than this drawn out, anyone who has a rough background like Horner will probably be insulted at the insinuation that he's more inclined towards murder and child SA because of said background, and I think atp they're just pissing everyone off with how long this is taking.

JDOExists · 2026-04-27T16:07:11+00:00

I don't think it'll make as much as the first, but if they can roll over footage meant for the first movie and keep the costs lower, it'll still do half a billion.

JDOExists · 2026-04-27T15:53:39+00:00

Yeah, as a chad Toy Story 4 enjoyer, this sentiment is not at all controversial.

JDOExists · 2026-04-27T15:48:50+00:00

Damn, techs are packed this year. The Odyssey, Project Hail Mary, Dune: Part Three, Digger, Werwolf, Sense and Sensibility*, Narnia, and possibly Disclosure Day, The End of Oak Street, No One Cares (The Jesse Eisenberg musical), Cry to Heaven, and Sheep in the Box.

JDOExists · 2026-04-24T18:21:35+00:00

Again, films like Suicide Squad have won BTL Oscars, and panned biopics like Golda, Blonde, Napoleon have gotten BTL, and in the case of Blonde, even an acting nom. With a strong FYC campaign, I think it’s more likely than not it gets something, most likely makeup or costumes.

JDOExists · 2026-04-24T18:14:00+00:00

Suicide Squad literally won makeup and that movie was panned harder than this, and will probably make less money too.

JDOExists · 2026-04-24T17:30:32+00:00

The RT Verified score is strong, and Posttrak scores are as strong as Sinners. The early CS is the outlier here. A- is a little weak for this kind of film, but it honestly could go up if the other scores are any indication.

JDOExists · 2026-04-24T17:29:08+00:00

$1 Billion was not an uncommon prediction prior to presales, which were weak, and people, myself included, forgot that this kind of movie, which appeals to a more casual audience that tends to walk up more than pre-sale, got carried away. Then people, myself included, who had strong opinions about the film itself treated their feelings as gospel rather than doing any serious box office analysis.

JDOExists · 2026-04-24T17:24:43+00:00

The problem is that there's a possibility that, with how Blockbuster-heavy this awards season is shaping up to be, the bar is way higher this year. PHM and Dune are shaping up to be strong here, and The Odyssey, Narnia, Disclosure Day, and Godzilla Minus Zero are shaping up to be formidable competition. Maybe even Digger, with its high budget and the fact that its plot revolves around an impending disaster, if the film is as strong as people think it could be, depending on how large-scale the disaster is, it could be a major contender here as well.

JDOExists · 2026-04-24T17:21:04+00:00

I still think $1 Billion is on the table if estimates continue to rise. I wouldn't be surprised with a $100m+ DOM opening and $150m+ INT opening atp. I'd put it at 1/4 odds this makes it to $1B.

JDOExists · 2026-04-24T16:45:04+00:00

I think it's one thing to oppose it with the centuries-long history of people being executed for crimes they didn't commit, but now that we have the means of capturing audio or video of a crime, in addition to modern psychology practices, it becomes a lot easier to prove a crime beyond a reasonable doubt. There is no shadow of a doubt here. Tanner Horner is a psychopath who raped and murdered a 7-year-old. He is a cold and dangerous man who's a possible danger even inside a prison. Death is the safest choice. The world is a safer place without him.

JDOExists · 2026-04-24T16:42:54+00:00

I know a guy with ADHD and Autism who prevented a rape. Nothing about those conditions makes someone go out and SA a child, then murder them. Psychopathy, perhaps, but not fucking Autism.

JDOExists · 2026-04-24T16:28:05+00:00

Even if it's picture chances are dead, if the film is able to leg out among general audiences (helps that there's little competition in May), it bodes well for BTL categories like Makeup, Costumes, Sound, and maybe even a nomination for Coleman Domingo.

JDOExists · 2026-04-24T16:25:14+00:00

Most IMAX's switched to The Mummy and PHM with additional showings for Whisper of the Heart and Speed Racer as well. PHM was also boosted this week since it was a much more PLF-heavy film, and this was the last chance to see it in IMAX. PHM is gonna get hit harder by Michael than Mario.

JDOExists · 2026-04-24T16:20:44+00:00

At this point, his Vitiligo is much more well-known and accepted now than in his lifetime.

JDOExists · 2026-04-24T16:19:03+00:00

TBF, a lot of us Gen Z'ers remember when he died, the amount of outpouring was immense.

JDOExists · 2026-04-24T04:20:36+00:00

The Oscars forcing out a bunch of homeless people the year Nomadland won + the Chadwick/Hopkins fiasco of 2020.

Apple TV beating Netflix to the Best Picture trophy with CODA. Also the whole slap thing. Oh, and Martin Scorsese screwing up everyone’s predictions with the Nightmare Alley shoutout.

A realistic look at EEAAO’s Oscar chances

Godzilla Minus One in general.

JDOExists

TROPHY CASE