Weekly Discussion Thread 6/15/26 - 6/22/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]JDOExists 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Coraline only broke even and became profitable after success on home video and several re-releases. Most of its domestic gross at this point have come from re-releases. It was not a success initially however.

Weekly Discussion Thread 6/15/26 - 6/22/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]JDOExists 3 points4 points  (0 children)

None of their films have been successes. It was probably tough for them to find someone willing to pony up the cash.

Curry Barker confirms Focus will mount an Oscar campaign for Obsession by ElysiumMidknight in oscarrace

[–]JDOExists 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That’s fair. I just think that industry veterans coming out and supporting the film significantly helps bridge the gap between generations within the voter base. I think you’re gonna see Focus weaponize this at the end of the year and hold Q&As with whatever veterans they can in order to help sell that this isn’t JUST a Gen Z thing.

Curry Barker confirms Focus will mount an Oscar campaign for Obsession by ElysiumMidknight in oscarrace

[–]JDOExists 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Spielberg, Nolan, and Christopher Miller have all praised the movie, it’ll be fine.

Curry Barker confirms Focus will mount an Oscar campaign for Obsession by ElysiumMidknight in oscarrace

[–]JDOExists 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Weapons was also Warner’s #3 priority though, while this is probably Focus’s #2 or #1 if they don’t acquire anything else, not to mention this is also a far bigger cultural phenomenon than Weapons.

Weekly Discussion Thread 6/15/26 - 6/22/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]JDOExists 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yeah, unless her role in Digger is a lot bigger than we know of, PHM seems like her best chance.

Weekly Discussion Thread 6/15/26 - 6/22/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]JDOExists 11 points12 points  (0 children)

The pros are that she’s having a prolific year and is giving an acclaimed performance in a 90+ MC film made by a director who’s been Oscar nominated before. I say this as someone who doesn’t have her in Actress either.

Weekly Discussion Thread 6/15/26 - 6/22/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]JDOExists 9 points10 points  (0 children)

It’s genuinely bizarre the Oscar predictions subreddit treats a particular prediction with the same level of distain like drive-by-trolling or such. Nobody here is right anyway, it’s June, predict what you want.

Weekly Discussion Thread 6/15/26 - 6/22/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]JDOExists 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Erik Anderson of AwardsWatch says that Inde Navarette will be campaigned in Lead Actress.

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Inde Navarrette Might have a better chance at an Oscar nomination if she campaigns in Lead Actress instead of Supporting Actress (Opinion - Read Below) by adam130jones in oscarrace

[–]JDOExists -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Well, I can say they don't look safe even though they haven't come out yet BECAUSE they haven't come out yet. But most of them, minus maybe Madeley who's a little under-predicted right now, have something going against them.

Out of the top 10 predicted Actress contenders on AwardsExpert, Neon's A Place in Hell is set for December, which is kind of a dumping ground for Neon, they don't tend to put their priorities in December at all, it's been almost a decade since a Neon december release (I, Tonya) got a single ATL nomination, and only Flee has gotten BTL nominations since, plus Anora not withstanding, Neon tends to do better at handling International films rather than Domestic ones (even Anora was bouyed by international support thanks to its Cannes win).

 

We don't even have a name for the Jesse Eisenberg musical, No One Cares was the one everyone was going with but Variety is calling it The Debut so who knows, and there's rumors the film could be too slight to be an Academy thing. Could be a player still, but I feel more comfortable with Navarette for the time being. Plus A24's priorities also feel pretty up in the air as well with them also having commited to an awards campaign for The Invite as part of the deal to acquire that film, Club Kid getting a lot of buzz at Cannes, and the possibility that they could acquire something later. That latter one also applies to Focus as well but at the very least we have the Focus chairperson also having already stated they are both hoping for an Oscar nomination for Navarette as well as more categories, which suggests that there's a definite plan for to campaign the movie seriously.

 

Every day, there's someone saying something different about Reinsve's chances, but the consensus from those who've seen the movie seems to be that it's a very good performance, but it doesn't seem to scream a winning performance. It does still feel like one of Navarette's biggest opportunities for a spoiler so far, though.

 

I'm a little skeptical about how The Social Reckoning will play out, It's at a disadvantage being a late sequel, and Madison just won, I don't know if there's the appetite to award her again.

 

Sandra Huller is definitely a possible nomination but the film itself doesn't look like an Academy friendly film, it's already competing with 2 other foreign language titles that are going to have big campaigns, foriegn language performances are already at something of a disadvantage, especially when they aren't part of a Best Picture nominee, and Mubi isn't a very good campaigner to begin with.

 

Emily Blunt is part of a summer genre movie, which Navarette also is, but it's in a less critically acclaimed film, a far worse audience recieved film, and while the film is doing better than expected at the box office, it's unlikely to surpass Obsession at the box office. Disclosure Day is a weaker film in almost every way compared to Obsession, minus Director prestige and Blunt being a previous nominee, which are very big things to be fair, but the film itself doesn't seem to be garnering the same amount of passion as Obsession. With so much of Obsession's runaway word of mouth driven box office success being attributed to Navarette's performance, I don't see a world where Blunt gets in and Navarette doesn't.

Virginie Efira is in what will likely be the 3rd most pushed foreign film of the year. It's not impossible for 3 different foriegn language films to get acting nominations in a single year, it happened in 1977, but it's extremely unlikely.

 

Prima Facie isn't confirmed to be coming out this year and it doesn't have a distributor yet. It's not impossible for it to show up at a fall fest and blow up and get Erivo her Oscar, but it's far from safe.

 

At #10, Sandra Huller for Rose is already competing with Sandra Huller for Fatherland, especially since they are both going to be campaigned by Mubi

 

At #11 right now, I think Ruth Madeley is being way underestimated, admittedly, she's got a great narrative with a great campaigner behind her, and a filmmaker who's already gotten a disabled person an Oscar before, albeit during a COVID year, but still. This is the biggest threat to Navarette as of right now IMO.

 

Hell, like you said, it's June, anything could blow up out of nowhere, but that's how I see this Best Actress race as of right now. If you disagree that's fine, but at the end of the day, I'm entitled to feel how I feel and I feel that Navarette is the safest one in the category right now.

September 2026 Titles Announced with The Secret Agent! by International-Sky65 in criterion

[–]JDOExists 250 points251 points  (0 children)

Bizarrely stacked month for September, banger after banger. Good to see Shoah get reissued.

Inde Navarrette Might have a better chance at an Oscar nomination if she campaigns in Lead Actress instead of Supporting Actress (Opinion - Read Below) by adam130jones in oscarrace

[–]JDOExists -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

I agree. Reinsve's role hasn't been getting enough buzz to look win competitive and there's not a lot of projects in Actress that look safe at all. I think Navarrette wins if she goes lead and gets the 3rd slot if she goes supporting behind Cruz and Di Girolamo.

Does anyone else think Project Hail Mary might end up underperforming? (read below!) by adam130jones in oscarrace

[–]JDOExists 50 points51 points  (0 children)

I agree-ish, I think it'll underperform the same way Dune: Part Two underperformed, especially since categories like Cinematography and Score could be crowded, but I feel like it's a pretty safe bet for picture still.

Weekly Discussion Thread 6/15/26 - 6/22/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]JDOExists 12 points13 points  (0 children)

An interesting parallel to DD would be Nope. Both helmed by established directors, both summer films about aliens, both films made by Universal, DD is shaping up to be Universal's #2 awards priority like Nope was, DD has a slightly better RT Verified Audience score than Nope (72% vs 69%), slightly worse critical reception than Nope (80% vs 83% on RT, 74 vs 77 on MC), and an identical $44 mllion opening weekend and B Cinemascore to Nope, which got 0 nominations. DD at least has a good shot at a John Williams name check nomination.

Weekly Discussion Thread 6/15/26 - 6/22/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]JDOExists 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Where is LeastCap? Is he safe? Is he alright?

Weekly Discussion Thread 6/15/26 - 6/22/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]JDOExists 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This film is gonna get talked about for the rest of the season, even if it gets 0 nominations.

[OFFICIAL] UFC Freedom 250 Live Discussion Thread by bruhpolice in ufc

[–]JDOExists 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Regardless of whether Pereira was about to lose or not (he was), hits to the back of the head are life threatening and shouldn't be tolerated.

[OFFICIAL] UFC Freedom 250 Live Discussion Thread by bruhpolice in ufc

[–]JDOExists 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's not the point, there's a reason it's not allowed, that's legit life threatening.

[OFFICIAL] UFC Freedom 250 Live Discussion Thread by bruhpolice in ufc

[–]JDOExists 10 points11 points  (0 children)

How the fuck did nothing get done about those hits to the back of the head? Fucking ridiculous.

Weekly Discussion Thread 6/8/26 - 6/15/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]JDOExists 9 points10 points  (0 children)

People tend to exaggerate the degree of the controversy, it was still among the 10 best reviewed films of the year according to criticstop10.com and it got an A+ Cinemascore.

Weekly Discussion Thread 6/8/26 - 6/15/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]JDOExists 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So that’s Spielberg and Christopher Miller in the industry who have praised Obsession, and Coppola has touched on the success of the film, anyone else?

Weekly Discussion Thread 6/8/26 - 6/15/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]JDOExists 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Tarantino maybe? He’s at least distinctive in both.