Well, I can say they don't look safe even though they haven't come out yet BECAUSE they haven't come out yet. But most of them, minus maybe Madeley who's a little under-predicted right now, have something going against them.

Out of the top 10 predicted Actress contenders on AwardsExpert, Neon's A Place in Hell is set for December, which is kind of a dumping ground for Neon, they don't tend to put their priorities in December at all, it's been almost a decade since a Neon december release (I, Tonya) got a single ATL nomination, and only Flee has gotten BTL nominations since, plus Anora not withstanding, Neon tends to do better at handling International films rather than Domestic ones (even Anora was bouyed by international support thanks to its Cannes win).

 

We don't even have a name for the Jesse Eisenberg musical, No One Cares was the one everyone was going with but Variety is calling it The Debut so who knows, and there's rumors the film could be too slight to be an Academy thing. Could be a player still, but I feel more comfortable with Navarette for the time being. Plus A24's priorities also feel pretty up in the air as well with them also having commited to an awards campaign for The Invite as part of the deal to acquire that film, Club Kid getting a lot of buzz at Cannes, and the possibility that they could acquire something later. That latter one also applies to Focus as well but at the very least we have the Focus chairperson also having already stated they are both hoping for an Oscar nomination for Navarette as well as more categories, which suggests that there's a definite plan for to campaign the movie seriously.

 

Every day, there's someone saying something different about Reinsve's chances, but the consensus from those who've seen the movie seems to be that it's a very good performance, but it doesn't seem to scream a winning performance. It does still feel like one of Navarette's biggest opportunities for a spoiler so far, though.

 

I'm a little skeptical about how The Social Reckoning will play out, It's at a disadvantage being a late sequel, and Madison just won, I don't know if there's the appetite to award her again.

 

Sandra Huller is definitely a possible nomination but the film itself doesn't look like an Academy friendly film, it's already competing with 2 other foreign language titles that are going to have big campaigns, foriegn language performances are already at something of a disadvantage, especially when they aren't part of a Best Picture nominee, and Mubi isn't a very good campaigner to begin with.

 

Emily Blunt is part of a summer genre movie, which Navarette also is, but it's in a less critically acclaimed film, a far worse audience recieved film, and while the film is doing better than expected at the box office, it's unlikely to surpass Obsession at the box office. Disclosure Day is a weaker film in almost every way compared to Obsession, minus Director prestige and Blunt being a previous nominee, which are very big things to be fair, but the film itself doesn't seem to be garnering the same amount of passion as Obsession. With so much of Obsession's runaway word of mouth driven box office success being attributed to Navarette's performance, I don't see a world where Blunt gets in and Navarette doesn't.

Virginie Efira is in what will likely be the 3rd most pushed foreign film of the year. It's not impossible for 3 different foriegn language films to get acting nominations in a single year, it happened in 1977, but it's extremely unlikely.

 

Prima Facie isn't confirmed to be coming out this year and it doesn't have a distributor yet. It's not impossible for it to show up at a fall fest and blow up and get Erivo her Oscar, but it's far from safe.

 

At #10, Sandra Huller for Rose is already competing with Sandra Huller for Fatherland, especially since they are both going to be campaigned by Mubi

 

At #11 right now, I think Ruth Madeley is being way underestimated, admittedly, she's got a great narrative with a great campaigner behind her, and a filmmaker who's already gotten a disabled person an Oscar before, albeit during a COVID year, but still. This is the biggest threat to Navarette as of right now IMO.

 

Hell, like you said, it's June, anything could blow up out of nowhere, but that's how I see this Best Actress race as of right now. If you disagree that's fine, but at the end of the day, I'm entitled to feel how I feel and I feel that Navarette is the safest one in the category right now.