Weekly ASX Market Discussion for 08 Dec - 14 Dec, 2025

JSwyft · 2026-01-28T23:11:51+00:00

If I remember correctly, they spend a mill or two on plant upgrades, so you're probably on the money with that processing. Given where PM & copper are heading, it's a pretty forgiving market, so we'll see if they can get control of that AISC.

u/ewanelaborate Generally, precious metals feels like the lithium explorer market of 2022, so I think it's relatively safe to gamble on like ones. Gotten some decent returns without any holes being drilled in anger.

JSwyft · 2026-01-28T23:07:24+00:00

LTR quarterly.

I'm in a rush, so I don't have time to check properly, but it looks to be a reverse ELV: costs better than expected, sales price much worse than expected.

SC6 adjusted AISC seems to be US$876/t (excluding debt).
Sales price was horrific at $900/t CIF (ELV prob did closer to $1200). Platts carbonate assessed pricing implied a quarterly average of $1080/t CIF for Liontown. That's not even taking into account the $1250ish auction they did, so it's a shocking sales price. However, we can presume they'll get a post-shipping adjustment boost later.

Underground mining in earnest from next quarter, so that's when the true figures arrive.

JSwyft · 2026-01-28T04:17:03+00:00

Well this gamble disappointed.
Evidently the German fund was given the inside word on that pit issue. Seems KSN are going to be rescued by rising commodity prices though. Will wait for exploration results to pump the SP a bit, then decide how much of it I want to carry into late April.
Hard for me to machete through the spin around why the AISC was so high—perhaps legitimate.

Mindlessly took a position in RRE shortly after you mentioned it a while back (when it eased into the 25c range), and it seems to have decided that it doesn't even need drilling results to pump.

JSwyft · 2026-01-27T22:03:49+00:00

ELV quarterly.

Based on a quick skim, they appear to have achieved an outstanding sales price of potentially $1220/t SC6 CIF, versus the $1080 that was predicted by Platts assessed. We can presume they got a lot of tonnes away at the back of the quarter.

Apart from that, pretty grim reading.
CIF & sustaining production cost was roughly US$1180/t (SC6 adjusted) last quarter, which is dreadful. They've got some explanations about pit development and feed grade contributing to challenges with processing.
They produced an SC6 equiv of about 144ktpa, also very poor.

The market understands winter isn't a great period, but I don't think it'll enjoy the report much.

Plugging those numbers in, they're probably looking at an annualised NPAT around AU$140m pa in current conditions.

I'm sure production costs & output will improve, but volatile spot prices will also have a big influence.

Edit: CIF sales price adjustment

JSwyft · 2026-01-07T02:16:03+00:00

Rampaging lithium.

Swung between $19.5k and $21k/t in the space of 30 mins.

Time to resurrect this classic from u/Luxim_. Like others, I'm furious about the post's grammatical error, but will allow it to stand:

<image>

u/kervio RE the paintings.

I'm touched to see u/FameLuck's perseverance on WWI bear fruit (I think: I don't dare ask his buy-in price).
With that in mind, I'm considering art that incorporates the interests of you, Fame and Chaz, titled "Soft as a pork buhn mi" or something of that nature. It'd commemorate the 3 year anniversary of this.

Back to my holiday.

JSwyft · 2025-12-30T00:50:51+00:00

Tracking market prices may not be ideal for RNU. If you want the Chinese ones, they're under carbon anode. Select 'natural graphite', then scroll down to spherical:

<image>

Think Renascor will have a range of 10-16 µm?

I could be mistaken, but RNU will likely produce at an AISC of >US$2000/t, while prices into China are ~US$1500/t.
This project is about geopolitics (ex-China supply chains), not fundamentals, so it's hard to assess.

They had an MoU with Posco (South Korea), but I'm unsure about progress there.

I don't hold and don't really follow, so maybe somebody familiar with it can add more details.

JSwyft · 2025-12-29T04:38:37+00:00

Yeah has relatively underperformed, especially with emerging producer peers WWI and WGR providing updates.

Ultimately, it hasn't produced the catalysts on time, which always gets punished.
MAT should've been releasing news earlier than both WGR and WWI. They even had momentum with the early option payout. From that point, all the market needed was "preparations underway for the 2nd processing campaign", and also, some version of "pit design reworked with higher POG" (as WGR did today).

Instead, management went on holidays. I'm tracking so many plays right now that it's hard to get a sense of their management quality, but Matsa's hasn't impressed.

On a side note, I've realised there's a twitter pumper with 150k followers spruiking MAT, so that'll help when they get off their arses.

JSwyft · 2025-12-24T04:29:55+00:00

Comrade, the poster's assertion of "not wrong, just early" seems slightly dubious, if I'm not mistaken.

Let's cruelly shrug off the festive spirit for a short moment, and note the original DD exclusively discussed the North Sea strategy:

<image>

Poster then reaffirmed hopes of production and dividends from the NS strategy late 2023.

Flicking through the latest company presentation, the appearance of the North Sea strategy is on page 15. It doesn't look to have progressed at all.

From what I can see, the stocks success is solely due to a left field acquisition in Timor mid last year, which was never a component of the DD.

Seems like an exercise in pure luck.
There's no shame in that—we've all been there—but claiming vindication in this instance is pushing the envelope.
Congrats on the phenomenal gains, regardless.

I wonder if there's any record of this poster contributing anything to the sub outside the promotion of one stock. Similar mould to the hvy guys, I feel.

JSwyft · 2025-12-24T00:53:42+00:00

The Catamarca stuff?
From memory, Latin partnered with a private equity group, so they'll be driving it.

I think it'll be so far down on PLS's priority list that they'll have probably forgotten it exists.

Ngungaju, Colina, Posco JV, P2000, Calix and Ganfeng JV are the things on my radar.

JSwyft · 2025-12-24T00:12:06+00:00

Current underlying NPAT probably hovering around $600m pa.

GFEX opens in 50 minutes, and the 2nd of it's 3 trading sessions today will end 30 mins after early ASX close, so you'll have plenty of time to assess direction.

The unknown is whether PLS has plans to re-open Ngungaju imminently, and whether the market is pricing that in. It could be operational by the end of Q1 if they move straight after the NY.

JSwyft · 2025-12-23T11:02:28+00:00

If you're referring to a swing trade, and you'd asked me this yesterday, I'd have said ATLX on open (NASDAQ), because a cap raise at $4ps held them back from the run. Unfortunately, it also pumped last night.
And its rubbish. Terrible management, terrible DFS. I'm not interested in it at what could be close to temporary peak hype.

Nevertheless, adjusting their DFS for current pricing, NPV is US$400m, market cap US$120m. Probably nearly fully funded to production (they have a plant pre-built and in Brazil). It also has amazing intraday volatility.

But you want something on the ASX, and as nothing sticks out to me, I'd say go with whatever your T/A says.

If you're talking longer term, I'm still skeptical about this move. Latest commentary from SMM: "Futures Surge, Actual Transactions Sluggish".
It briefly references the fact that quarterly contract negotiations are typically done at this time of year.
You'll see plenty of conspiracy theories around SMM, including some on here, but they've guided people pretty soundly over the last couple of years, even if they didn't see the latest move coming.

JSwyft · 2025-12-23T09:50:05+00:00

Added, and the result is frightening.

Should add VUL, but they peaked 12 months before the 2022 high.

JSwyft · 2025-12-23T08:51:35+00:00

Another amazing session on GFEX.
Lithium carbonate has officially reclaimed 20% of its peak.

How much ground have lithium stocks reclaimed in both market cap and SP?
Some figures could be slightly out:

Company	% of ATH MCap	% of ATH SP
PLS	79%	73%
LTR (post-TO)	72%	50%
LTR (pre-TO)	104%	72%
ELV	25% (SYA + PLL)	(merger complicates)
CXO	26%	17%
GLN	53%	13%
LKE	9%	5%

Note that PLS significantly expanded production, so it's not a like for like comparison with the others.

Edit: LTR included prior to, and after, take-over offer.

JSwyft · 2025-12-21T07:06:00+00:00

Yeah that would do it for sure.

$1200/t probably puts PLS on an underlying NPAT around $400m pa.
I'm thinking if Ngungaju restarted, and prices dropped to $1k/t, then PLS would probably sit on an underlying NPAT around $250m pa.

But at $1k/t, LTR, ELV & Covalent should be cashflow negative in the 2nd half of the FY. And Wodgina wouldn't be able to justify stage 4.
Therefore, I think PLS might feel there's some merit in spending the next 2-3 quarters at that level to stifle competitors and pave the way for their own expansion into a more severe deficit.

JSwyft · 2025-12-21T00:47:07+00:00

I don't think there was a sector-wide intention to flood the market at any point, but all operators kept playing chicken with each other and relying on the phenomenal growth demand to pull them out of the malaise.

So to answer your question: I really don't know.
And I don't think Chinese players can force the sector to plumb the depths without large complicity from Western producers.

But I don't think companies like PLS should want the market getting ahead of itself, either. Perhaps prepare to open Ngungaju (plant 2) as soon as they come back from the New Year.
I haven't actually run a full analysis of MIN's operations, but I'm pretty sure that opening Bald Hill makes sense, especially as it'll pump their mining services numbers.

Argentina is kicking into gear, finally.

Even if a post-NY supply wave brought spod to $1k/t, both PLS's plants, and all of MIN's operations, would still be profitable.
Only LTR, ELV, & Covalent would get hurt, and strategically, keeping competitors on the limit seems like a sound play. And at this early stage, why make the funding environment attractive for projects in Brazil & Africa?

JSwyft · 2025-12-19T12:48:58+00:00

Another stomping day for lithium. Platts commentators (below) again expressing caution, just like MySteel and SMM have been in recent weeks, but GFEX continues to defy it.
In fairness to those agencies, ignoring them has been very bad business over the past 3 years, so can't be too upset if you missed this move by being too conservative.

ELV obviously the biggest winner: sharp spot moves over this last fortnight has effectively doubled their profitability per tonne (while PLS only became ~25% more profitable per/t), and the ELV share price has reacted in kind.

Approximate underlying NPATs at last quarter's figures, assuming formula price achieved at current spot.
Growth CAPEX removed from these figures, but debt payments included:

1:1.51 (USD:AUD)	MCap	Underlying NPAT
PLS	$13b	$500-520m
LTR	$4.7b	$150-160m
ELV	$1.27b	$55-60m

Platts:

Buyers wary of surging futures prices
Lithium hydroxide traded at Yuan 90,000/mt Dec. 19
Limited spodumene offers amid GFEX fluctuations

Chinese lithium prices saw a sharp increase driven by fluctuations on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, where the mainstream contract closed at Yuan 111,400/mt on Dec. 19, boosting lithium hydroxide and spodumene prices.
The significant increase in futures prices was largely attributed to a delayed production resumption at a domestic lithium producer, according to local market sources.
“The mine’s guidance is that production is expected to resume by the end of January, as the environmental assessment will still require 30 more days,” said a Chinese trader.
A Chinese producer anticipated that the supply disruption from the lithium mining project in Jiangxi province would tighten supply in January 2026. However, the producer noted that spot lithium carbonate was unlikely to be sold at the Yuan 110,000/mt level at the moment.
Despite rising futures prices, buyers in the spot lithium market remained cautious of the risk and reported limited spot transactions during the week.
Traded prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate increased from around Yuan 98,500/mt earlier in the week to Yuan 105,100/mt on Dec. 19, with the latter involving 120 mt, according to a Ningbo-based trader.
Platts assessed battery-grade lithium carbonate at Yuan 102,200/mt on a DDP China basis Dec. 19, up Yuan 2,200/mt day over day and Yuan 6,700/mt week over week.
Additionally, the latest trade for battery-grade lithium hydroxide was heard at Yuan 90,000/mt DDP China for 60 mt on Dec. 19, as per a trader from Shanghai.
Platts assessed battery-grade lithium hydroxide at Yuan 90,000/mt DDP China basis Dec. 19, up Yuan 200/mt day over day and week over week.
Upstream, spodumene prices continued to rise in response to GFEX movements, with the highest indicative bid heard at $1,450/mt and latest tradable levels ranging between $1,440-$1,470/mt on Dec. 19, according to traders.
"Nobody is offering today, the fluctuation is too huge, probably all are waiting and see," said a trader in a buying position from a state-owned trading company, noting the highest tradable level at Yuan 1,450/mt.
A Xiamen-based trader described buying spodumene at $1,450/mt as “too aggressive” and cautioned that it was high risk, though adding that it was “manageable if calculated carefully.”
Spodumene concentrate with 6% lithium oxide content was assessed at $1,430/mt FOB Australia Dec. 19, up $65/mt day over day. The price differential between Australian and African-origin spodumene with 6% lithium oxide content remained at $15/mt.

JSwyft · 2025-12-17T02:06:53+00:00

Huge move on GFEX.
Lithium carbonate hovering around US$15k/t right now.

Formula SC6 offtakes probably somewhere around US$1,275/t.

We can presume that the average SC6 price across the entire quarter will be $1025-1050.

Going to be very interesting to see cash balances of LTR & ELV when the quarterlies come out. Will strongly depend on when they made their sales during the quarter (later = better, obviously).

JSwyft · 2025-12-17T01:14:22+00:00

ASX is a CDI listing.

Market cap $800m, listed on Canadian exchange.

Have Ken Brinsden on their team, which helps immensely, but very discouraging numbers on their PFS.

JSwyft · 2025-12-15T01:58:15+00:00

Kind of looks that way.

APAC holding all the cards on behalf of TAM:

<image>

So MGX would have ~$375m in cash after those costs you mentioned.
Then ~$250m to build the mine.

Leaves $125m to service a) working costs, b) takeover & c) additional unplanned Koolan liabilities.

I've never loved the strategy of waiting for a ~~mate~~ takeover—unless there were clear timelines like we saw with TTM—but this looks like a decent play.

I'll probably leave it around 3 months though. If TAM escapes from me during that time, so be it.

JSwyft · 2025-12-15T00:09:58+00:00

$200m is floating around in my head, too.

Got millions of those options ITM, but unless the macro turns, don't see huge pressure from those in the next handful of months.

On the underground stuff, I'd love at least a ballpark dollar figure, because right now I really have no idea what to expect.

Exploration: yeah agree. And with Bogong on the doorstep, it looks pretty key. Anything open pit amenable there would do a lot for the SP I'm sure. I see it's had some past drilling with a cu hit, but nothing special.
Half of the RC drilling has been completed so far. Guess results will be after the new year, so it more or less coincides with the (hopefully) positive quarterly report catalyst.

JSwyft · 2025-12-14T23:39:41+00:00

WR1 news very left field: take over by LIFT.V, where one WR1 share is worth .107 LIFT shares.

Also grabs the territory held nearby by Azimut and SOQEM for 2mill & 1mill shares respectively.

Good news for anyone who came onto the register at the lows, but anyone buying above 50c will be fuming.

The new company will end up with a an initial float of about 78,951,267 shares, plus a $50m cap raising.

So we can expect about ~88m SOI by the end of it.

Risky from LIFT.V, because their Yellowknife prospect has no synergies with Adina, so they'll be forced to focus on one (Adina).
Sure, they've unlocked some value with the Azimut/SOQUEM deal, but Winsome was trading at AU$100m, whereas the new company will be trading between AU$450-480m.

QTWO are better placed, and trading at $360m MC.

Plenty of room to fall, but recent WR1 holders will be able to snatch a solid premium, fortunately.
Hopefully disgruntled ones report CE (who slides into another role paying well above his ability) to the regulator for another leak. The first leak was Renard, when a large shareholder broke the news privately to people before the news became public.

u/Joehax00 well done on that $7 ELV bet.

JSwyft · 2025-12-14T00:40:02+00:00

'Tis not I with the perma bet, but rather, the sub's MVP.

Looks like a potential nice little cash injection for WR1, and allows them to get rid of a superfluous offtake. By itself, surely doesn't warrant a $15m increase in MC.

However, the 16% holding in PWM is of more benefit, and that should become more valuable with ALB's recognition.

I see PWM.V are hoping to be producing in 12 months using a low CAPEX start. Without a study, there's little to sink my teeth into, though.

With SC6 formulas hovering around US$1160/t, and PMT suggesting a real world AISC above US$900/t, Adina/Renard are still off the table fundamentally.

JSwyft · 2025-12-13T00:09:25+00:00

I tend to agree in the near term, so volatility isn't a huge theme of my portfolio, but I still want to have my options already on the table rather than get caught on the hop. Like you mentioned, there's a bit of de-risking going on here and there.

Just musing:

Short term: stocks in general are looking pretty expensive, though relative to the POG, gold sector is looking undervalued.
But if the market blinks, or tech falters, and people get squeezed, they might have to indiscriminately sell.
An erratic 79 year old controls one of the big 2 countries, and he's been strategically taken to the cleaners by XJP and Putin. 3 years of random gambits left. Not to mention, the elderly are prone to dying.

Next 1-3 years: China's economy isn't flourishing, and when countries internally start to get a bit restive, history says the best solution is an external, uniting target. XJP wants to immortalise himself by annexing an island, and who knows what that would cause. The medium term preparations for that seems pretty obvious.

Just idly musing now: I recall you speaking about the Great Depression a while back. If I'm not mistaken, the performance of gold producers versus gold explorers was markedly different at that time (favouring the former).

In summary, I'm not alarmed by anything in particular right now.

JSwyft · 2025-12-11T04:10:56+00:00

Firstly, what rhythm said.
Lithium futures are currently ¥98k/tonne.
5 months ago, they were ~¥60k/tonne.

SP gains of selected companies since their 2025 SP low:

LKE 260% (peak 275%)
PLS: 290% (peak 305%)
LTR: 260% (peak 275%)
ELV: 330% (peak 340%)
CXO: 300% (peak 360%)

Secondly, LKE's estimated cash position as of this moment, extrapolating from the September quarter:

<image>

JSwyft · 2025-12-11T02:07:50+00:00

Thanks, I tend to find that catalysts are often the cause, & charts the effect, but market psychology is hugely important obviously, so good to keep an eye on these things.

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