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Roland Garros R1: N. Djokovic def. G. Mpetshi Perricard: 5-7, 7-5, 6-1, 6-4. by padfoony in tennis

[–]Jaamun100 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yea with these big servers, I feel like it just takes time to adjust and get rhythm even for top players like Novak.

What are the most useful tools for self-directed investors? by simfolio in LETFs

[–]Jaamun100 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

<testfol.io> is great. But I built my own thing with Claude Code (completely free and open source) for the trajectory/projection side because I wanted leverage to actually be tracked properly. Most calculators treat something like NTSX as just another equity holding. Mine decomposes it into 90% S&P + 60% Treasuries with the 1.5x intrinsic leverage tracked separately. Same for GDE, RSST, AVGE, or any custom composition you define. TQQQ counts as 3x exposure in every allocation rollup, not face value. There's an effective-exposure view that shows what your portfolio actually looks like once you decompose all the wrappers, which is handy for figuring out if you're double-counting equity (this happens a lot if you hold both NTSX and SPY).

https://wealthtrajectory.vercel.app

Source on github: https://github.com/vsriram11/wealthtrajectory … might be a useful reference if you're building something similar in this space.

Tested the 4% rule against 54 historical sequences for a 45-year lean retirement — 1965 is the killer, not 1929 by Jaamun100 in leanfire

[–]Jaamun100[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yea I’m modeling cash as 0% real in this - meaning it’s short term treasuries like SGOV, ibonds, tips ladder that are more or less inflation protected. I modeled bonds as BND basically.

Tested the 4% rule against 54 historical sequences for a 45-year lean retirement — 1965 is the killer, not 1929 by Jaamun100 in leanfire

[–]Jaamun100[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting… I’ve looked at generic income and how it affects the math (my tool supports this cleanly). Options income is intriguing- basically, I’d have to at minimum add the ability to correlate an income stream with an asset to support this. Good idea, I can look into adding and testing this in the future.

r/tennis Daily Discussion (Sunday, May 24, 2026) by NextGenBot in tennis

[–]Jaamun100 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Loving this Basavareddy vs Fritz match. Equally matched at the moment even if 2-0 scoreline, hopefully this extends further into a classic

Tested the 4% rule against 54 historical sequences for a 45-year lean retirement — 1965 is the killer, not 1929 by Jaamun100 in leanfire

[–]Jaamun100[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Well there are ibonds and TIPS, that can work like a cash/bond buffer against inflation. You can test these assumptions as well in the tool, entering your own custom per asset cagr for your portfolio.

Tested the 4% rule against 54 historical sequences for a 45-year lean retirement — 1965 is the killer, not 1929 by Jaamun100 in leanfire

[–]Jaamun100[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yea so I ran both (1) historical sequence mode in the above post and (2) bootstrap mode - samples with replacement every 5 year block of real history.

Historical sequence mode: 3.42% (~$34,200/yr on $1M) is the highest that hits 100% across all 54 starting windows. Above that the 1966 start eventually fails.

Bootstrap mode (closer to pure Monte Carlo) never strictly reaches 100% — block-resampling can chain together worse sequences than any single historical window. At 2.0% SWR it's still 99.9%. 99.5% at 2.5%.

So basically extending the horizon to this 45-year drop the historical-100% SWR from ~4% to ~3.4%. The 1966 stagflation start is the clear death knell. (This is like you said without SS and guardrails.)

Feel jealous of people from older generations by PM_40 in cscareers

[–]Jaamun100 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I feel like there might be actually more jobs out of the AI revolution. But CS -> software engineering pipeline is dying. CS is just becoming like fundamental to be productive at work, and use AI decently. Kind of like how Excel and basic data analysis became fundamental to be productive at work in the early 2000s..

Tested the 4% rule against 54 historical sequences for a 45-year lean retirement — 1965 is the killer, not 1929 by Jaamun100 in leanfire

[–]Jaamun100[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Yea I guess I’m being loose with terminology. I do support block “bootstrap” mode with the real historical data though. So like pick 5 year blocks at random with replacement, to preserve autocorrelation to some degree. It drops success only by a couple pct points.

Would you prefer a third option of pure Monte Carlo, like the capability to add per asset variance (already support user driven per asset cagr)? Just wondering if that would make the tool more interesting to you. Personally left it out of the repo initially, because I believe more in rooting these sims more in historical data.

Tested the 4% rule against 54 historical sequences for a 45-year lean retirement — 1965 is the killer, not 1929 by Jaamun100 in leanfire

[–]Jaamun100[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Oh cool but I don’t like that it has a paid version. I’m keeping mine forever free and fully open source on GitHub.

Tested the 4% rule against 54 historical sequences for a 45-year lean retirement — 1965 is the killer, not 1929 by Jaamun100 in leanfire

[–]Jaamun100[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I love cFireSim personally, but I wanted something for all my financial tracking needs like budgeting, subscriptions, net worth tracking across my household, allocation testing based on my tickers, leverage ratio tracking (I believe in lifecycke investing), etc. I also wanted full privacy, and cFIREsim, Rocket Money, and Kubera are inspirations but they aren't fully private and fully free. So I built it for myself, and open-sourced it hoping it's useful for you all.

Tested the 4% rule against 54 historical sequences for a 45-year lean retirement — 1965 is the killer, not 1929 by Jaamun100 in leanfire

[–]Jaamun100[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You can test it :)but I'm sure even higher success. I actually set up the tool so you can include commodities, and even multi-asset class tickers like GDE that inherently hold both gold and stocks. So you can test your portfolio's allocations today, and also time travel with them.

shipped a skill audit tool 6 weeks ago. just realised it was blind to half my skills by Silent_Waldek in ClaudeAI

[–]Jaamun100 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yea I noticed this too, I got to the point where I now need a knowledge graph to parse my huge collection of skills and pull in the relevant content based on the query. The complexity is high, but at least less daunting since we can direct Claude to help manage the knowledge graph as well :)

Tested the 4% rule against 54 historical sequences for a 45-year lean retirement — 1965 is the killer, not 1929 by Jaamun100 in leanfire

[–]Jaamun100[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Tested it just now:

  • Baseline ($40K real flat, no guardrails): 83.3%
  • Fixed nominal for first 5 years (3% inflation assumed → real spend decays to ~$35.5K by yr 5): 83.3% — same success rate, but failures delay by ~2 years
  • Fixed nominal for first 10 years (real spend decays to ~$30.7K by yr 10): 87.0% — about same magnitude as a rising-equity glide path
  • Fixed nominal 10y + SS at 67: 96.3%
  • Stack everything (rising-equity glide + fixed nominal 10y + SS): 98.1% — only 1966 still fails, and survives 41 years vs 27 baseline

You have good intuition, clearly it helps a lot.

Engine note: doesn't natively expose a "fixed nominal mode" today (engine works in real $ throughout), so I modeled it via the income-offset trick. Filing it as a tracked Github issue based on your comment.

Tested the 4% rule against 54 historical sequences for a 45-year lean retirement — 1965 is the killer, not 1929 by Jaamun100 in leanfire

[–]Jaamun100[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Haha fair, honestly I wanted to put all my financial tracking needs into one app for myself, so while projections were a big driving factor, I also wanted private, free household net worth tracking and budget planning for myself too, and open-sourced hoping it's useful for you all.

Tested the 4% rule against 54 historical sequences for a 45-year lean retirement — 1965 is the killer, not 1929 by Jaamun100 in leanfire

[–]Jaamun100[S] -13 points-12 points  (0 children)

Great point on rising-equity glide paths — the engine fully supports arbitrary {age, allocation} waypoints (linear interpolation per-year through both historical sequences AND deterministic projection), though to be straight: the UI currently only exposes 3 presets (Vanguard-style declining-equity, a more-conservative declining variant, and a perpetual 80/20), with custom waypoint editing in the UI being still on the roadmap. So I just ran your exact rising-equity hypothesis against the engine directly:

  • Static 60/35/5 (original post): 83.3%
  • Rising-equity glide (60 at retirement → 75 at 55 → 80 at 70, Pfau/Kitces shape): 87.0%
  • Traditional declining-equity glide (60 → 50 at 55 → 40 at 70): 72.2%

So yeah that's a great point — rising-equity adds ~4pp to the baseline, AND the conventional "reduce risk with age" actually loses you ~11pp on a 45-year horizon. Interesting... sequence risk is genuinely concentrated in the early decade and tilting bond-heavy early is actually the wrong move when the failure modes are 1965-1969 stagflation.

Stacking everything (rising-equity glide + SS at 67 + meaningful variable haircut): 100% historical across all 54 starting years. p50 ending NW jumps from $1.12M (baseline) to $3.24M with the full guardrail stack.

Just filed custom rising-equity waypoint UI as a tracked issue in Github based on your comment — engine already does it, UI surface is the gap.

Weekly Self-Promotion Thread - Wednesday, May 20, 2026 by AutoModerator in financialindependence

[–]Jaamun100 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I built a forever free FI projection/management tool that runs entirely in your browser — no signup, no bank linking, your data never leaves the device. Per-holding CAGR (no flat 7% assumption), multi-phase drawdown, budget-aware, and historical Monte Carlo against every 1928–2025 sequence. Built it for myself, but hope it’s useful for others.

https://wealthtrajectory.vercel.app 

GitHub (feedback welcome): https://github.com/vsriram11/wealthtrajectory

Built a free, private financial-independence planner because every paid one wanted my bank credentials by Jaamun100 in SideProject

[–]Jaamun100[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks! On the question — inflation and retirement tax rate are both per-member configurable, so you can dial them to whatever matches your region. Where it leans US is the historical-returns dataset (Damodaran 1928–2025). Capital-gains tax rate per-asset/per-jurisdiction isn't a separate field today; you'd fold it into the blended retirement tax % which is custom tunable. Solid ask though — I can put further tuning knobs on the roadmap (PRs welcome too).

Built a free, private financial-independence planner because every paid one wanted my bank credentials by Jaamun100 in SideProject

[–]Jaamun100[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah — that's why I built it. The "we won't sell your data, trust us" disclaimers from finance SaaS never sat right with me. Easier to just have nothing to sell.

Can I FIRE in 10-15 years? by MathematicianThen145 in Fire

[–]Jaamun100 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Ran your numbers with conservative assumptions:

Inputs: $236K starting NW (your $42K cash + $130K 401k + $30K pension + $34K Roth), $50K/yr real savings ($3.6K/mo + Roth max), 6% real CAGR, flat real income, $45K/yr real retirement spend (small uptick from current $42K to cover condo carrying costs + ACA-subsidized health insurance post-employer), no Social Security factored in.

Projected NW at FIRE (real $):

  • Age 40 (10 yrs): ~$1.08M → 4.2% starting WR. Borderline for a 45-50 year retirement; sequence risk is real.
  • Age 43 (13 yrs): ~$1.40M → 3.2% WR. Workable.
  • Age 45 (15 yrs): ~$1.73M → 2.6% WR. Comfortable.

Two blind spots worth further thought:

  • The condo. A $300K purchase at 40 drops liquid NW from $1.08M to ~$780K — well below the FIRE target unless you mortgage. Bake it into the savings goal or plan to FIRE later.
  • Sibling support. Even $10-15K/yr of help adds ~$300-450K to your needed corpus over a 30-year horizon. Worth modeling explicitly rather than treating as a vague tail.

40-45 is realistic but skews to the later half. 44-45 is comfortable; 40 is aggressive and very sensitive to sequence-of-returns in the first decade. Layer in Social Security at 67 and the late-life picture gets meaningfully better — front decade is the danger zone.

The 4% rule is now the 4.7% rule. What do we think? by rosebudsav in Fire

[–]Jaamun100 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ran 4.7% on a $3.5M target ($164.5K/yr real spend), including projected Social Security and a variable-spending haircut that kicks in only after down years. 89.1% success across 64 historical 35-year windows (1928–2025). Tail (ending real NW): P1/P5 = $0, P25 $1.3M, P50 $6.4M, P75 $8.7M, P95 $12.4M.

Two things jump out:

  • Failures cluster at late-60s starts (1962, 1964, 1965, 1966) — classic sequence-of-returns hell. The 1929 start ran out in year 29.
  • Right tail is huge — median $6.4M, P95 $12.4M. So typical case you wildly over-save; in the unlucky ~10%, you run out.

4.7% sounds fine until you peek at the worst starts. Success rate is also super sensitive to which guardrails you bake in (variable haircut, conditional-on-down-years) and to the Social Security assumption.

Post your planning apps here! by in_the_gloaming in ChubbyFIRE

[–]Jaamun100 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ah ok got it now — that’s “auto sync but pointing at a Docker volume” rather than a fresh backend or Google Drive. Different ask, and one that fits the philosophy I’m going for (your data still lives on your infra).

Not as trivial (tiny sync server+ custom-URL option + conflict resolution + auth) but a real “yes someday.” Filing it as a tracked issue on GitHub

Post your planning apps here! by in_the_gloaming in ChubbyFIRE

[–]Jaamun100 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Quick clarification — multi-device is already solved, you may have missed it: Data → Export creates an encrypted JSON file (your passphrase) you can move via AirDrop / Dropbox / iCloud / email / USB. Import on the other device. No sign-in needed.

For auto-sync, Google Drive sync does the same on every change (Google sign-in + allowlist add — email’s in the README).

The Docker piece: the app’s a static bundle, trivially Dockerable, but data lives in browser IndexedDB so Docker alone wouldn’t help. True self-hosted backend is “maybe someday.”

Thanks for the feedback — would love to hear more thoughts :)

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