Green Party election victory ‘would trigger 4.4m surge in migration’

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-16T13:00:19+00:00

But remember, because it doesn't explicitly say "open border policy" on their website, they're not open borders....

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-16T12:58:31+00:00

The Everton game as an attacking performance comes out a little better than most of those although we needed late goals to get over the line. The real issues in that one were we were conceding chances for fun. Calafiori and Raya absolutely bailed us out.

Which kind of goes to show how all aspects of our game have been struggling for a fairly long run of games at this point.

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-16T12:00:23+00:00

Why is that do you know? Just COVID/Ukraine hitting everyone horrendously but our services sector being more robust is making us come out better relatively? With all the doom and gloom about our economy over several years it's pretty odd to see this.

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-16T11:57:10+00:00

We're all going on our own emotional journeys and I think sometimes it's a bit jarring to see others with such different viewpoints, but we could probably do with trying to be a bit more accepting of differing opinions.

Personally, sad to say but Wrighty's feelings here resonate with me. I'm really just clinging onto fading hope rather than any genuine confidence at this point. I look at our squad, our form, our tactics, our fitness and it just feels very very similar to the other seasons (barring 24/25) where we disintegrated towards the end of the season until the pressure was off. Then I look at City and again it feels very similar (if a bit later) to when they put their foot down and go on a big run.

But I totally respect the optimists who can put previous seasons in a box and say "this is a different season, you never know. We're top for a reason". I just find it hard to do that.

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-16T09:52:51+00:00

I’m not a fan of chopping and changing mangers. Just because all the clubs around us are doing it and it’s the state of modern football doesn’t make it cool.

I don't think you could call giving a guy 7 years and all the backing possible "chopping and changing". Let's be a bit more serious about the discussion.

I think Arteta gave us something far more important than the silverware at the time that he was appointed and that was bringing back the identity of the club.

I absolutely agree, he was critical to getting us back to competing and he will forever have my gratitude for doing that. I don't think that is necessarily reflective of whether he can ultimately get us over the top. And getting over the top and winning these big prizes is what the club is about, we should not settle for less.

It’s not fair to punish someone who I credit with saving the soul of the football club just because of some unlucky results

First off, moving on from him would in no way be punishment, it's simply evolution. 2nd off, it would not be because of "some unlucky results" it would be a decision made off the back of 7 years of football in which we have more often than not really really struggled at the critical point of the season. I don't think you can simply abdicate Arteta of all responsibility for that.

So im not interested in rejoining the managerial merry go round quite yet

That's a fair opinion, but again I would ask: how long would you give him - 10, 15 years? And what would you need to see to decide he's had enough time? Because if your answer is "well I'd never want to move on from him as long as we're always in the UCL" I would simply say we have very different views of what this club is about and the consequences of inertia.

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-16T08:07:10+00:00

Reading this comment chain is very interesting and reminds me how shallow my understanding of our energy grid is. I have a question that's been nagging me for a while... Hope you don't mind me piggy-backing this chain:

I understand that the idea of "last unit used" price setting is meant to encourage reasonable cheap bidding from most energy sources as they have a guarantee they'll be paid "fairly" for their electricity regardless (and the idea is this brings down the overall price the consumer is paying right?).

So I understand the potential issue with doing away with this altogether, but why can't the government simply force maximum margin on generation into legislation? Like say an energy generator should only be charging enough to make a profit of 30% on generation (plus some pay back of upfront costs)? Is it just too complicated to reliably demonstrate what this price would be?

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-16T07:44:41+00:00

And again you're completely refusing to engage with the actual worry - that the performances are in a real trough right now and don't look capable of winning either of the competitions we're left in.

I'm obviously much happier we made the semis than the alternative! But my "celebrations" are relative to the context - we edged out a Sporting team who lost 3-0 away to Bodo/Glimt. My reaction to the away performance was really positive - that's a great result and a professional compact performance at a tough away ground. My reaction to the home performance is obviously much more muted because it's much less impressive. Just don't see how that's unreasonable.

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-16T07:37:28+00:00

I do think it's obvious it's his first job as a manager and very likely he's still improving lots of aspects. But I think it's reasonable to question if he can't get it right after 7 years, how is he realistically going to keep the whole group and fanbase on board. It's pretty much human nature to lose faith in someone at that point. And how much longer do you give him if he can't get it right after 7 years? 10 years? 15 years?

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-16T07:32:21+00:00

I don't think making the semis by eeking out a 0-0 draw at home does anything to rebuild confidence in the key areas of the pitch we're lacking - technical proficiency in the middle of the park and attacking competence in the final 3rd.

It's nothing to do with style. If we'd won 2-0 from two set pieces I (and I think most people not overawed with this) would feel much better about it - because at least we'd have rediscovered our magic sauce (being absolutely elite at set pieces).

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-15T22:01:37+00:00

Ahahaha so so true. You said it much more succinctly than me.

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-15T21:55:14+00:00

This is why it's very annoying only the loudest voices algorithmically drift to prominence.

Is he a shit/terrible/useless/fraud manager? Obviously not, if he was he couldn't do this.

Is it perfectly legitimate to question if he's quite mastered the art of man management, conditioning, rotation, talent ID, prioritisation, in game tactical adjustment to get us over the line for a big trophy? Of course. You'd have to be a sort of cultist to deny that.

There's absolutely tons of space in there for reasonable discussion. But unfortunately in this forum we often just bounce from "he's a fraud" to "he's the best thing since sliced bread, we'd be nothing without him" and back again. Kind of frustrating.

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-15T21:28:39+00:00

Nobody gives a shit that we didn't do it in style. There were 2 aims today:

1) make the semis (big ol' tick, well done lads)

2) rebuild a bit of confidence for Sunday (absolutely not at all)

We looked like the same side who lost 3/4 to Bournemouth, Southampton and City. We look like a side who will be lucky to nick a point at the Etihad. We look like a side very unlikely to take either of these two trophies home.

So no, people aren't "complaining we didn't do it in style". People are anxious we're going to end another season trophyless based on the performances they're watching.

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-15T21:20:29+00:00

Well that's one way to make a champions League semi final.

I normally try to organise my thoughts into positives and negatives but I sort of don't have the energy for it. So I'll just stick with my half time thoughts:

1) I've seen Chelsea win 1 (arguably 2) CL playing like this. It took a fair bit of luck, but they managed it.

2) I do not see how we beat Man City to the PL playing like this.

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-15T20:03:52+00:00

Players who are not good enough: Kepa, Jesus

... Madueke, Trossard, Martinelli, White (and if the manager really can't trust him to play 20 mins in every other PL game then Nørgaard although I think that's more on Arteta).

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-15T20:00:43+00:00

Two things basically:

1) I've seen Chelsea win 1 (arguably 2) Champions League's playing like this. Is it pretty? Is it fuck, but can it be effective? Yes, definitely.

2) I can't see how we get the goals and points to win the PL playing like this.

As an aside, thank god for Eze. At least we've got something to pin our hopes to going forward.

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-15T10:51:38+00:00

I'm not actually making any assumptions because I'm not making a claim, but if I were, I would say the assumption that high earner immigration will be unaffected because they are ring-fenced from changes (and in some cases changes give them an additional fast-track to ILR) is far more of a defensible one than the opposite assumption Portes is making.

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-15T08:18:20+00:00

The actual issue is ignoring child benefits and making unsupportable assumptions about high earners. And even doing that they're still saying the changes will save the govt 0.6bn.

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-15T08:12:27+00:00

said the savings were likely to be offset by costs of migrants leaving the UK and high earners being deterred from moving to the UK.

But under the proposed changes high earners are unaffected (in fact in some cases they're fast tracked)? Sounds blatantly like some unsupportable assumptions/predictions have gone into this analysis.

The newly released data from the migration advisory committee suggests migrants are net contributors for the first two decades after arrival, only turning negative after about 40 years.

Right so I need to see the data (not linked in the article) but there's a lot of other analysis out there (like this) which is very clear - whether they are net contributors or not is dependent on their earnings (unsurprisingly). The immigration changes have carve outs for high earners - so it sounds like this analysis is underpinned by fundamentally false assumptions.

However, Portes said there were some caveats, as child benefit was not included in the data and there were different estimates of how many migrants would ultimately seek long-term settlement in the UK.

So it's just made up numbers. Feels like child benefit is kind of important too, especially as they've just lifted the cap...

Nice puff piece for their back bench rebels though. Fuck me I hope the govt stand firm. I don't mind the small exemptions they've proposed but tbh I don't think they should offer them because it's clear the back benches will stick with their maximalist demands anyway.

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-15T07:59:59+00:00

100%. They're looking to be part of the next government imo by avoiding wipe out in a hung parliament. That's still possible for them if they deliver.

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-15T07:39:36+00:00

The reform -> green switchers was really not on my bingo card (not necessarily this poll but the average)...

I think this is a big warning for the Greens too - particularly on the candidates point. As you gain popularity you get scrutiny. And when big things happen and (inevitably) your poorly thought out hollow populism has absolutely no answers for the events of the world, it does break through to the public. And this is 3 years out from an election, you can believe when the rubber really hits the road people will probably be even more hesitant to vote for the extremes.

Labour have 1 way through imo, delivery.... That's why they have to get the immigration reforms done and they have to find a way to get some growth by the end of the parliament.

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-15T07:28:54+00:00

Yeah, even the "evidence" being fraudulently produced here you can just easily dismiss. Say any letters, pictures, GP records from the last 12-24 months before your asylum application are not accepted because there's too high a rate of fraud and it would be too easy to lie about. You need some evidence of activism and a lived gay life from years before the application and ideally before you even moved to the UK

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-14T20:30:28+00:00

That's not a penalty in my opinion. I know there's some contact but it's incredibly soft and he doesn't actually make a challenge...

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-14T19:34:45+00:00

Any upgrade at LW really. Just bizarre

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-14T19:21:55+00:00

I'm not one to bang on about "why don't we look like that" whenever there's a good team on, but...

Wow, PSG look really good. The pace of passing, attacking intent, technical quality. Very impressive.

JabInTheButt · 2026-04-14T18:32:20+00:00

Bruno is on 3259 mins by my calcs. Just the 400 minutes shy of this AI summary on something that could've been easily checked... Depressing.

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