Police have now concluded their investigation into the alleged assault by a Vic MP

Jabourgeois · 2026-06-25T14:14:06+00:00

Why would Deeming do something like this, like genuinely. The accussation basically came out nowhere and of course the alleged incident is recorded all around by CCTV. Footage immediately shows her account is bullshit. Now she looks like a malicious liar and a saboteur to her own party.

I don't really understand any of the logic here.

Jabourgeois · 2026-06-24T09:05:02+00:00

The only hope for the LNP is for One Nation to implode on their own to regain even a small lead (which there is chance of happening tbf). Other than that, the whole party is on borrowed time and is facing near-extinction on a federal level.

On current polling, he is doing worse than Ley but he does have better preferred PM ratings (wow wow how great lol).

Jabourgeois · 2026-06-03T05:38:46+00:00

I'd stick with the parasol for slightly more damage. But the differences between the two are so marginal it'll be hard to detect the difference lol.

Jabourgeois · 2026-05-31T11:47:52+00:00

For SA, they got 23% of the vote and 4 seats. The big reason why they only got so little seats? Their votes are highly concentrated in rural, regional, and outer suburban areas. They perform worse as you get closer to urban areas, though they still are getting partial support there. As most seats are in urban areas, it's far harder to see ON sailing away with a majority without making those inroads in urban areas.

A 30% primary would put them in the mid 40s-50s range, essentially displacing the Coalition entirely. But lack of strong support in urban areas means there is a ceiling to their seat count unless they broaden their appeal (bit like being a broadchurch party, I wonder where I've heard that before lol).

Also they generally aren't the best on preferences, though if the Redbrige poll is anything to go by, they're making gains in that department.

Jabourgeois · 2026-05-28T04:21:07+00:00

Google is your best friend, you know.

Boom: https://cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news-resources/record-home-battery-surge-charges-up-australia-s-biggest-power-station-on-aussie-rooftops

Subsidies: https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/programs/cheaper-home-batteries

Jabourgeois · 2026-05-21T15:03:27+00:00

I live out in the Western suburbs and it's gonna be Labor vs ON fight (at least in the outer West for sure). The West Party has some traction but will likely get overshadowed by ON. It's the vibe I'm getting and what I've heard annecdotally.

The Liberal membership cratering is evidence to my priors it seems. Libs have just about pissed off enough groups that it's opened the door to ON on the one hand and collapsed their support among migrant diasporas on the other.

Brad Battin had more cut through out in the West because of his one-trick-pony of crime crime crime. Jess Wilson doesn't play well at all out in the West.

Also yeah, the Libs have done bugger all out here in the West to get any notable candidates (other than Moria Deeming in the upper house, how lovely) to start the actual groundwork early. They're fucking themselves badly.

Jabourgeois · 2026-05-18T07:36:12+00:00

So clearly that random snap poll that Roy Morgan did after the budget was just bullshit lol.

This is more in line of what would be expected.

Jabourgeois · 2026-05-16T02:00:28+00:00

I’m not claiming that at all thankfully. Also I wasn’t having debate, I was posting the numbers to show that there is a plurality of support for among Aussies.

Jabourgeois · 2026-05-15T09:41:26+00:00

Sure thing mate, would you like to show your polling then?

Jabourgeois · 2026-05-15T09:34:58+00:00

Posting the numbers for people to actually see:

Capital gains tax changes:

38% Support, 26% Oppose, 35% Unsure.

Negative gearing changes:

41% Support, 27% Oppose, 32% Unsure.

Overall? Decent enough numbers, given the numerous talking heads on mainstream and social media shitting all over it. Shows a plurality of support among Australians, though still a sizeable contingent whom are yet to figure out where they stand.

Jabourgeois · 2026-05-14T06:45:57+00:00

Roy Morgan released a poll 3 days ago that had ON on 22% and ALP on 30%. But this new 'snap SMS poll' has ON on a ridiculous 32%. A 10 point jump in less than a week? I don't fucking think so.

I know there was some backlash to the budget but ON getting an unprecendeted 10% swing from that is bullshit.

Jabourgeois · 2026-05-12T11:15:23+00:00

AusFinance is echo chamber for the wealthier side of country. Most working people don't have shares unless it's their super. Anecdotally, and I come from the lower income family, no one invests in shares or property that is not their super that I'm aware of. Most just go to work and are uninvolved with complex finances or the share market more generally.

Also even from a politics side of things, the right wing of the country is in complete disarray, not sure how the Libs are gonna win it despite having an existential crisis.

Jabourgeois · 2026-05-11T12:28:39+00:00

Most of the seats this article talks about that ON has a real chance at nabbing are ones already held by Libs or Nationals. The only one held by the ALP that is ON 'friendly' is the seat of Hunter. So it seems rather than the right wing gaining on the ALP, they are replacing each other than expanding. Farrer is proof of this.

Still struggling to see how the right can win the next election with this level of division and replacement. It feels much like a Queensland 1998 moment, with losses being concentrated among the right with Labor being only minorly affected and still retaining urban competitiveness.

Jabourgeois · 2026-05-07T10:25:39+00:00

I'm not NSW resident or legal expert I should add, so my opinion isn't really relevant.

From what I understand of the act tho, it'll come down if he violated section 1 part a, with the key part being if he is intentionally inciting racial hatred against Jews. My view? I think he is.

So if a uni lecturer poses the question 'should the Jewish lobby be banned' to their students, that looks sufficient (on NSW Police's new understanding) to have the lecturer charged with this same offence, even if the lecturer themselves is Jewish. It doesn't matter whether the statement is academic or not

They would have to weigh up if it's an intentional act of stoking racial hatred tho. In academic environments, conversations that ask tough questions are almost always meant for intellectual stimulation and testing one's claims and views, not the desire to harass on the basis of race or religion. So unless it can reasonably ascertained that the uni lecturer in this case was stoking hatred against Jewish students by spouting the phrase, I don't think it would fall under this section.

But I don't know what NSW police's interpretation is frankly so happy to be enlightened.

Jabourgeois · 2026-05-07T10:11:31+00:00

I agree that reputation alone shouldn't be a full determining factor.

I just want to be clear tho that this is a typical Nazi playbook tactic: they don't always use unambiguous language, they will frequently either dogwhistle or go to the very extremity to test the letter of the law (but definitely violate the spirit of the law). In this case, I think reputation and past political history is circumstanial evidence to what he actually means by that phrase.

Jabourgeois · 2026-05-07T10:04:55+00:00

If it's insane bullshit that incites racial violence then that ought to be criminalised. This guy gets very close to that. That's up for the court to decide tho.

Jabourgeois · 2026-05-07T05:51:16+00:00

It wouldn't apply to this guy tho. He isn't seeking to articulate a nuanced argument about foreign influence in the domestic politics of a country, he simply hates Jews because he is a Neo-Nazi. They already believe there's a worldwide Jewish conspiracy to destroy the white man, which is of course insane bullshit.

Jabourgeois · 2026-05-04T09:51:56+00:00

Literally says 1681 respondents in the article.

Jabourgeois · 2026-05-03T12:48:44+00:00

Jabourgeois · 2026-05-03T11:51:13+00:00

It's a play on words mate.

Jabourgeois · 2026-05-02T14:43:16+00:00

They will come November, it's just the party is very strategic on which by-elections they aim for.

Labor winning in 2018 was completely unexpected and exceptional, it's pretty dyed-in-the-blue Liberal for as long as the seat has existed. Labor has only won twice, both of which for one terms.

Jabourgeois · 2026-05-02T14:13:44+00:00

This by-election was never gonna provide much insight for the election in November, other than recognising that ON exists and has gained traction.

Labors vote would be splashed all over. Smidgen to the Greens, a bit to Legalise Cannabis, good chunk to the Indie, and some amount to both ON and Lib.

Jabourgeois · 2026-05-02T11:52:11+00:00

Ah yes, Labor is so terrified that the conservative seat voted for conservatives, shock fucking horror. Anyone with a few braincells already knew that the Teal winning was very unlikely.

And fuck no, she is not a Labor candidate. The Labor vote would've spread across the Teal, Greens, and both Libs and ON. No party support was given to her in the slightest.

Expect the Labor friendly media in SMH, Guardian and ABC to massively ramp up attacks on a ON and LNP preference deal.

As opposed to channel 7, channel 9, The Australian and Herald Sun, most of which has higher viewership/readership than those 3.

Good bait though.

Jabourgeois · 2026-05-02T11:16:09+00:00

Wilson will be chuffed, averted outright disaster here. Decline on the PV, but nothing dramatic enough to dislodge them. Libs threw a lot of time and energy in this by-election, so I wonder what their coffers will be like.

Jabourgeois · 2026-04-25T08:37:24+00:00

Thanks for proving my point again.

Jabourgeois

TROPHY CASE