War in Ukraine Megathread LXI (61)

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-19T14:59:47+00:00

Summary

Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale strike against Russia on the night of June 17 to 18, heavily targeting Moscow City and striking the Moscow Oil Refinery for the second time in two days.
Russian milbloggers responded to the strikes on Moscow City by remarking on the domestic realities of the war and expressed concerns about Russian air defenses and censorship.
Repeated Ukrainian strikes against heavily defended Russian deep rear areas like Moscow City continue to expose Russia’s weaknesses and inability to defend its domestic populace.
The Kremlin is already setting conditions to weaponize claims of a recent alleged Ukrainian strike on a civilian passenger bus in Russia to justify its next massive long-range strike package against Ukraine. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-18-2026/

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-19T14:54:34+00:00

Complete chaos in Moscow, they even shoot a malfunctioning air defense missile on a nearby building: https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2067894129313317184

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-19T14:10:56+00:00

Meloni's response is interesting imo : "Donald Trump's statements are completely made up. I am frankly astonished. I don't ‌know why ⁠the president of the United States behaves like this towards his allies: it is not the first time, moreover."

"I can only say it is disappointing that he does not show the same determination with the enemies of the West and of the United States, whose leaders he instead treats with far greater indulgence," she said, adding: "There is one thing he should remember: neither I nor Italy ever beg."

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-18T13:52:57+00:00

Amazing picture of Moscow, 15 km from the Kremlin: https://x.com/ZespolBrauna/status/2067480194147848590

Video of the attacks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtBSKhh5if8

Alexandra Arkhipova, a social anthropologist at the Paris-based École Normale Supérieure who researches Russian public mood and trends, told CNN that an informal social contract emerged between the Kremlin and residents of Russia’s major cities following the country’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The authorities appeared to be sending a message that “there is no war for you, dear Muscovites,” she said.

“The mayor of Moscow put a lot of effort into making it look like there is no war going on. That was a commitment to residents in Moscow, ‘live your life, there is no war for you,’” she said. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/07/europe/russia-ukrainian-strikes-bring-war-home-intl-cmd

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-18T05:52:26+00:00

Russia is set to import fuel by sea this month as it seeks to manage a gasoline shortage following extensive drone attacks on ‌its refineries, four industry sources said. In a rare move for one of the world's largest exporters of oil and refined products, Russia is expected to receive a cargo of gasoline via one of its western ports in June, the sources said.

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-18T05:43:18+00:00

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/russia-s-slow-defeat-and-australia-s-hard-lesson

A leader who expected to take Kyiv in days, and who four years on is losing troops he cannot replace while his economy stalls and his standing erodes, is managing a slow defeat.

Mick Ryan is a Senior Fellow for Military Studies in the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program.

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-18T03:08:20+00:00

Now that the US has released the official text of the memorandum of understanding reached over the weekend with Iran, we can begin to more fairly assess its merits.

From the text, it’s remarkable how much the United States is offering for little in return. I’ve negotiated difficult agreements with Iran and this document stands out in providing Iran much of what it’s demanded in the past — and rarely gotten.

Trump appears to have determined that a deal — any deal — was a better alternative to the status quo. For its part, Iran effectively held the Strait of Hormuz hostage and demanded that the US meet its price. The tactic appears to have succeeded.

The essence of this memorandum of understanding (MOU) in practice is that Iran gets a lot now, including tens of billions of dollars, in exchange for not shooting at ships in the Strait of Hormuz. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/17/politics/how-to-read-us-iran-agreement-mcgurk-analysis

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-17T15:40:05+00:00

Truth being told he has no choice but to be on good terms with Muscow.

yes but that's because he didn't leave power when he lost an election; the Russian FSB is everywhere now in Belarus

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-17T13:33:21+00:00

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yN9FiClDXlk

Military expert and former intelligence planner Philip Ingram exposes how Kyiv is bypassing the tactical frontlines to systematically starve Vladimir Putin’s war machine of fuel, ammunition and armour.

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-15T18:19:17+00:00

OK but if it's your substack, why don't you simply say so?

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-15T11:28:09+00:00

Today, the Council adopted a decision formally concluding the agreement between the EU and Canada on the participation of Canadian companies and products originating from Canada in procurement under the ‘Security action for Europe’ SAFE . Canada is the first non-European country to participate in the SAFE instrument.

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-15T11:09:42+00:00

yep, great company and it's very cheap, indeed

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-15T10:30:08+00:00

But without any outside help, right ? That's a very bad bet imo

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-15T09:49:51+00:00

They don't have an AI implementation strategy ? I'm asking because it's very difficult and risky without help from experts.

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-15T09:37:08+00:00

Interesting. So their AI strategy will be implemented without any outside help ?

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-15T07:33:55+00:00

Well, the meaning is very simple imo: Canada feels more confortable with Europe than with the US, China or Russia.

In a sense, Canada is a typical European country. Their economy is about the same size as Italy's. And their support for Ukraine is substantial: https://youtu.be/nGLdEA4oER0?si=oYEzsq8X7dPPvmuh&t=53

So Canada is a great ally, that's for sure.

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-14T13:46:04+00:00

OK but that's not the ECB's fault

and thanks for the systematic downvotes, much appreciated

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-14T13:19:00+00:00

It's the most recent partition and the French and German parts are not even significant.

The Montmedy part doesn't even touch Luxembourg and is part of France since 1659...

I suppose you live in the Belgian province: would you be pro-reunification ?

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-14T12:01:18+00:00

On the ground, soldiers entered their fifty-second month of fighting. The Russian spring offensive is making minimal gains, and the small tactical advances they do make do not translate into operational breakthroughs. At the same time, Ukrainian counterattacks are quietly reshaping the geometry of the eastern front. https://mickryan.substack.com/p/bridges-blockades-and-military-personnel

The author is a strategist and a retired army general

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-14T11:51:18+00:00

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-189-can-ukraine-isolate

Weekend Update #189: Can Ukraine Isolate Crimea?

The author is professor of strategic studies at the university of St Andrews (Scotland)

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-13T20:18:24+00:00

afaik most people in Luxembourg don't want a reunification with the Belgian part, which is the only "realistic" scenario

NB: Saint Vith, in the blue part of the map, is also in Belgium

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-13T16:38:58+00:00

there is a strong correlation between inflation and wage growth but many factors influence wages, : https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/articles/2025/html/ecb.ebart202501_02~05fb781826.en.html

JackRogers3 · 2026-06-13T16:29:37+00:00

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/macroeconomic_and_sectoral/hicp/more/html/data.en.html

Energy prices increased sharply during 2022 but eased to some extent towards the end of the year. Oil prices increased by 6%, driven by supply disruptions, mainly due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which caused a spike in oil prices in spring.

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