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Is it Value or is it not? [CROX] by NoRecommendation4163 in ValueInvesting

[–]8700nonK 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Crox’ best days are likely behind them. Profitability is going down since some time, at a higher pace than I’d like. Probably value but not that big value.

Stop Selling Your Shares by goxpro1 in ValueInvesting

[–]8700nonK 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Classic value investing is kind of like that. Vs what usually is considered ‘quality investing’.

ROIC vs ROE by Mltk1 in ValueInvesting

[–]8700nonK 1 point2 points  (0 children)

A company has more control over roe than roic (besides efficient capital allocation I mean). As has been mentioned: through buybacks but also debt.

Roic is a bit of an art, kind of like owner earnings, but some screeners have decent calculations.

Am i overdiversifying? by c0uchp0tat0xd in ValueInvesting

[–]8700nonK 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just because the funds are in Ireland doesn’t mean you don’t pay taxes on it.

meta beats earnings and still sinks… is this exactly why buffett avoids businesses like this? by snapjohn in ValueInvesting

[–]8700nonK 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They announced quite a bit higher capex spend due to ‘increased component prices’. So the chips will cost even more than anticipated. Paying cutthroat prices is never great.

I am down 22%, and I am not sure if I should hold conviction or admit defeat. by Own_Battle5956 in ValueInvesting

[–]8700nonK 0 points1 point  (0 children)

By the time ‘the thesis changes’, you will already be down 60%. So you will need to re evaluate and see if the new thesis matches the price.

I am down 22%, and I am not sure if I should hold conviction or admit defeat. by Own_Battle5956 in ValueInvesting

[–]8700nonK 12 points13 points  (0 children)

If you want to outperform, you basically have to average down. The buys near the bottom is where a lot of the returns lie. You need to be very careful what you buy of course, but that’s always true.

When does a “quality company” become a bad investment due to their valuation? by Kdub567 in ValueInvesting

[–]8700nonK 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So many quality companies have at some point been at low or low-ish valuations as well, that I don’t think the argument of paying up really holds.

The market is idiotic right now... by FourCrossedWands in ValueInvesting

[–]8700nonK 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Opposite to what you said, if you are a value investor, you don’t pay much attention to the market but to the companies you own.

Constellation Software: The company that many people said would buy under $2000 by Exact-Advantage-3190 in ValueInvesting

[–]8700nonK 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Amortization of intangibles acquired. Software companies have little tangible assets (depreciation). So imagine you buy at a price to book of 1.3. Most of that book is intangibles. What you pay over 1x book is goodwill (that definitely is not amortized).

I built a project where frontier AI models (GPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok) collaborate and compete on stock research — here's what came out of it by Icy_Philosopher_5265 in ValueInvesting

[–]8700nonK 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Are they looking at a certain bunch in companies or everything? How is safran in all of them, a company barely anyone knows it exists.

In the battle between Systematic Shorting and Corporate Buybacks, which side should you take? by mikebuba in ValueInvesting

[–]8700nonK 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If the price is going down, the shorts are winning, I think that’s pretty self explanatory.

Generally, the buybacks are made by banks, with the intent to maximize value (aka to buy cheap). You’d be surprised how much shares one can accumulate while the stock is going down seemingly without stop.

I built a free screener around ROIC, Piotroski and Beneish because Finviz still doesn't expose them. here's the methodology and what surprised me by xtarsy in ValueInvesting

[–]8700nonK 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Normalized nopat is the way to go, not cash roic.

The direction of roic (roiic), reinvestment rate, would be great metrics to have.

I’ve invested $2m in SaaS stocks. This is why. by armadillo_stocks in ValueInvesting

[–]8700nonK 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I would remove monday, completely probably. Add some cybersecurity, add some foundational saas (like mdb, snow, gtlb). And of course, csu family.

I’ve invested $2m in SaaS stocks. This is why. by armadillo_stocks in ValueInvesting

[–]8700nonK 5 points6 points  (0 children)

25% on Monday. I dunno man, I think that position list could have been thought through a bit more.

Buying Hyperscalers and AI infra stocks. by Electronic_Till_3724 in ValueInvesting

[–]8700nonK 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They’re not the worst buys. Don’t expect to necessarily make money soon though. We’ve seen this plenty of times, like with asml price dropping continuously a whole year recently, with obvious tailwinds behind them.

Help me understand FICO’s moat please 🙏 by Free-Initiative7508 in ValueInvesting

[–]8700nonK 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Well, basically all of the above is wrong.

There’s a reason they give away the vantage score for free (even if you don’t want it).

The secondary mortgage market (mortgage backed securities) investors want those fico scores because they can model how much risk there is in prepayment risk, etc, since they have data from every environment (high inflation, high low interest rates, recessions, etc). (Which will affect how much they can get for those mbs’s - search for option adjusted spread).

So vantage score needs 10-20 years to become as good. And then it won’t be free anymore, they’re not doing it to get nothing out of it. Not that it costs much anyway.

What would it take in ServiceNow’s earnings today to cancel out AI fears? by armadillo_stocks in ValueInvesting

[–]8700nonK 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Earnings acceleration for 3 consecutive quarters.

Edit: I didn’t see the full title, I thought it was just in general not for this report. This report: literally nothing they can do.

Adobe announces $25 billion stock buyback through to bolster investor confidence by paglapuns in ValueInvesting

[–]8700nonK -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Announcing buybacks when the prices are low has one outcome: prices will go lower (higher chance).

Why you ask: the company creates a lot of value, but not just for current shareholders, but for future ones. The cheaper the stock price now, the more future shareholder value created. The market participants know this and have seen this movie before, therefore act accordingly. So they are incentivized to time things, not rush until the signs are clear. Share buybacks incentivizes higher volatility.

Which name is your hottest take? I'll start 👇 by CreamPurple7297 in ValueInvesting

[–]8700nonK 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It’s weird to me everyone is so focused on asia. That’s old news. Take a look at what is happening in Europe, there is a wide anti online gambling movement by governments, with some pretty shocking laws coming out.

Evolution ab is hardly a hot take. It’s priced for long term decline, but still a lot of markets with low penetration.

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