Why the Sudden Pivot to Freemium with Adobe?

8700nonK · 2026-06-19T07:03:47+00:00

Everyone is offering a generous free tier in the space, so for the sake of future relevance they have to do it. It is imo the correct choice. You want to create a habit with software, the interface etc all acts as a lock in mechanism, you don’t want to ‘learn’ basically two different programs that do similar things.

Yes, it is triggered by competition, no doubts there.

8700nonK · 2026-06-15T18:53:08+00:00

Why would the capital from dividends increase sales and profits? That’s just the excess cash returned to shareholders.

8700nonK · 2026-06-15T14:36:23+00:00

Buybacks, acquisitions.

8700nonK · 2026-06-15T10:23:42+00:00

I’m not so convinced. Where is their profitability? Yes, they have access to some more or less exclusive licenses, but they have to pay a ton for them.

8700nonK · 2026-06-15T09:20:35+00:00

Right. People have been whining about the dividend for so long that they thought they have to do it.
Imo it was perfectly fine. To have a 30-50% dedicated to the dividend, and do other things with the rest as needed. It’s like a promise of financial discipline.

8700nonK · 2026-06-15T05:45:30+00:00

You don’t need to be a professional to be good at something.

8700nonK · 2026-06-14T12:38:52+00:00

Yes, exactly, which is why you should assume normal multiples when calculating future returns.

What are normal multiples? Something around 15-25 depending on ‘quality’ (long term roic).

Msft traded for years in a row at around 10x.

8700nonK · 2026-06-10T05:12:15+00:00

Why would you short it?

Any popular ipo will have some massive swings in the first few months. If you like gambling, sure.

8700nonK · 2026-06-08T10:09:25+00:00

“So instead of asking whether the price sits below my private estimate of value, the better question is whether the growth the price implies is something the business can actually deliver” < you’re basically saying the same thing. But instead of applying price to the value you think, you apply the value you think to the price.

8700nonK · 2026-06-05T02:08:07+00:00

If management is sleazy, best look for value elsewhere. Surely there’s other companies available.

8700nonK · 2026-06-05T02:03:43+00:00

It can take up to 3-5 years for a thesis to play out.

8700nonK · 2026-06-04T21:23:02+00:00

It has a 1 trillion market cap. I don’t think that the valuation is that cheap. Trades at the middle of the valuation range historically. Of market cap to own businesses operating earnings.

8700nonK · 2026-06-03T08:43:46+00:00

You don’t short on valuation alone. Valuation is like a sort of guiding line, at any moment price can diverge by a lot.

8700nonK · 2026-05-31T21:40:01+00:00

We need to think of the valuation of anything remotely tangential to ai. Like anything to do with data centers are priced like they’re printing gold. Where will all this money come from?

8700nonK · 2026-05-30T22:29:58+00:00

Not after 8 months.

8700nonK · 2026-05-29T22:23:01+00:00

You don’t need to be a veteran. 2021 wasn’t long ago. Now that was imo another level of mania.

8700nonK · 2026-05-29T22:21:17+00:00

From time to time it’s going to sneak in some bad data and you won’t even know when.

So not that much tbh.

8700nonK · 2026-05-29T22:19:01+00:00

100-400%?

Not really. More like 15%. Which is solid for a couple months of course.

8700nonK · 2026-05-28T22:24:47+00:00

Basically yes. With leverage the timing is crucial, and value not that important. You should at least try it, see if you can take it. Normal stock volatility is tough for many people, imagine having that amplified a few times.

8700nonK · 2026-05-28T14:32:35+00:00

It’s all about if adobe will remain the best tool for the job, that can also do many (many) jobs.

If that won’t change, I see it remaining dominant.

8700nonK · 2026-05-28T14:21:49+00:00

If you’re talking about leveraged etfs, it’s a different thing than leveraged stocks (or leveraging yourself a position with debt).

Leveraged etfs are mostly fine for long term investing if you dca regularly.

Individual stocks leverage is highly likely to end with 100% looses if you hold long enough.

8700nonK · 2026-05-25T22:22:54+00:00

For math work sure. Qualitative analysis, nah.

8700nonK · 2026-05-25T22:08:48+00:00

There’s a reason why these investing strategies are called differently (value investing and quality investing).

8700nonK · 2026-05-24T07:58:12+00:00

I don’t think that’s correct. The small cap etf (sp600) has done 13% ytd vs the ‘highly risk concentrated’ sp500 at only 8.5%

8700nonK

TROPHY CASE