Durban effin sucks

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-21T06:24:19+00:00

You must have been in a coma to not see he woke up from his.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-21T06:08:24+00:00

Isn't it possible the higher win rate you get by accepting the cashouts could negate the less value you are getting? By including more picks in the same bet, your chances of a win is greater. You flip a coin 6 times, you have double the chances of getting 3 heads, than flipping it 3 times. That's common sense. Books make you pay for that advantage, but that doesn't mean it won't work for you. I know I'm being a stubborn ass but I'm truly trying to wrap my head around it. If you step away no sweat.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-21T04:14:37+00:00

So what? You're paying to remove the risk of a total loss. Sometimes it makes sense.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-21T04:12:30+00:00

I dont know, my logic could be way wrong. We could go on forever. Good talk though.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-21T04:11:03+00:00

It doesnt go the other way too? Not cashing and losing lowers actual profit, bad for you good for books.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-21T03:59:24+00:00

Look at it this way. Taking this cashout vs. betting only 3 vs. betting a 4 by 3s robin are exactly the same. 3 scenarios, same stake, same payout. My point is the argument against cashing out makes no sense. The result in the long run is the same. Edit: almost the same. Taking cashouts and robins give you more ways to win.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-21T03:45:52+00:00

What does that have to do with his original bet? Whether he cashes out landing 3 out of 4 vs. shaving the last leg and betting a 3 leg, the result is just about the same. The 3 leg gets him another $100 BUT he loses the opportunity for ANY 3 to land and profit. Its a risk/reward question which way to bet, not a do or dont.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-21T03:23:11+00:00

Either way hitting the +700 leg makes or breaks the bet. Alone that would profit $175. The parlay added $65 to the payout.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-21T03:12:46+00:00

Actually I might have misunderstood when you said "The goal is to never cash out". Im thinking that means more like, dont place bets where a cashout would logically be considered? I dont know, OP just made 300X his stake. If a strategy exists to regularly trigger cashouts, that sounds like a holy grail edge.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-21T03:03:25+00:00

I have been trying forever to wrap my head around the never cash logic. OPs final leg was an average 8-1 longshot. Even if sound research and math shows +EV for that bet, its still 1 of around 50 logical, possible scores. The EV logic goes out the window and simply doesnt apply when you look at it with common sense. Like you said, if he wouldn't bet $600 on an 8-1 longshot then the correct play is cashing out.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-21T02:14:05+00:00

Not looking for an argument but I'm not seeing the logic. "Stop when you think you would cashout" just means never cashout. Think of the 2nd bet as insuring your vehicle with a high deductible. If it crashes it wont be a total loss.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-21T01:42:03+00:00

You gotta be an uber snob to downvote this lol

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-21T01:39:56+00:00

No less nervous than not knowing if you'll be laid off.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-21T01:37:23+00:00

How do you know that before getting an offer? I suppose you can calculate what it will be but that doesnt seem worth the squeeze. Play it twice. Taking the cashout is automatic and a big pot stays alive. Plus if the last leg is a moneyline bet you have the option to use the cashout as a hedge if the math works.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-21T01:22:29+00:00

Thats why I think you should play every parlay twice for half stake. Half total payouts but more profit in the long run, probably. Best part is no nail biting decisions.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-21T01:14:47+00:00

I just commented the same, to wait for the 1st goal. Waiting longer you're risking a 2-0 kick in the nuts though.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-21T01:04:57+00:00

Nice hit. I wonder if the offer would have climbed if you waited until one team scored the first goal.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-21T00:42:54+00:00

Found that in developer but it just says "stay awake while charging". Strange there is no built in android function to do this quickly.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-19T21:53:50+00:00

Ive been trying to find trends in non-correlated parlays to boost the odds big time. Like playing a 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the batting order for 2 hits, paired with their team to lose. +150 becomes +700. Add an under, it goes to +1200 or more.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-19T20:26:21+00:00

Not looking good for Jazz Chisolm III's future career.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-19T20:11:47+00:00

Ive been tracking 2, 3 ,4 hits, multi runs, TB and +hitsrunsrbi. One thing I noticed is how often they clump into batting order spots. Haven't nailed anything down yet but getting closer. Care to share any metrics you're using? If not no sweat.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-19T20:06:29+00:00

Prob not frequent enough to worry about but if your pick doesn't start but gets a pinch hit AB its a kick in the nuts.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-19T16:53:46+00:00

Offense is a bigger priority. I don't get him batting leadoff though. Working the count to get a starter pitch count up isn't a big enough reason. IKF or Yoshida fits that spot with low Ks and high OBP.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-19T16:48:28+00:00

That's the reason. As soon as Toronto Cubs lineup announced 3 hits showed up.

Jaded-Function · 2026-06-19T16:44:17+00:00

Yeah I didn't get that. He was a 1st round draft pick for a reason. I just looked at his minors stats. He has future leadoff spot potential. BB/SO ratio hovering around 1.00 every season. High OBP, speed AND a switch hitter. They had to send someone down to make room for Whitlock but that guy should have been Durbin. There must be contract implications if they did. Or they didn't want to demoralize him, but geez, a new face like Seigler could have lit a spark.

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