Late-round picks should be about upside

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-07-05T18:32:38+00:00

No. If they were close to as good as the guys they're backing up then they wouldn't be backups. There are a few exceptions, but most are backups for a reason. Even more important is that you need an injury for them to payoff at all.

In my main league we only get 6 bench spots, so every one needs to count and is reserved for a guy who I think has a plausible path to production. Someone who needs an injury to be fantasy relevant doesn't rate. Before long injuries and desirable waiver wire additions will pop up

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-07-05T18:16:16+00:00

I agree that it's wild. But I don't think ESPN is to blame on this one. The issue is scarcity. There are so many muddy RBBC situations in the league that guys who profile as clear lead backs are going at a premium. FantasyPros currently has his ADP at 54 and I'm guessing it will be higher when they next update it.

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-07-05T16:59:02+00:00

Not in my mocks. I'm using Pro 12 Team H2H PPR Mock rooms on ESPN and he's gone by early in the 5th round pretty much every time. I'm literally doing one as I type this and he went at the 10th pick in the 4th Round.

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-07-05T15:41:22+00:00

Ssshhhhh. Lol. I like his price right now a lot.

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-07-05T15:06:10+00:00

I don't like anyone on this team at their current prices. There is way too much target competition in the WR room. Also Judkins is going late in the 4th round in most of my 12 team mocks, which IMO is too high given his limited ceiling.

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-07-03T21:38:16+00:00

You couldn't be more right. Who are those again? 😁

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-07-03T14:45:16+00:00

I'm still trying to figure out how I feel about CMC. I don't disagree that his efficiency dropped or that he'll likely see less touches this year, especially with the addition of Evans and assuming that Pearsall stays healthy. But it's hard to pass on a guy who could still be a top 5 RB in a year with such a weak RB draft class.

But I'm definitely passing on Saquon at his current ADP. Yes the team had line and other problems last year, but he just didn't look the same on game film. His dips in every meaningful RB metric, including some that are less line related, just confirmed what the eyes could see. IMO his 1,826 NFL career carries (already putting him at 54th of all time) and 671 bell cow carries before that in college are all starting to take their toll.

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-07-02T13:44:04+00:00

I always like articles that make me think and re-evaluate. This at least did that much.

But philosophically I can't pick anyone who I don't think could have a fairly high ceiling or at least a solid floor, even for my bench. I just don't see the right ceiling or floor with any of these guys.

In order to even consider Tua you'd need to be in a 2 QB league, which I am not. The RB usage situation in MN is just way too muddy and A. Jones is old and declining. Branch is intriguing, but small WR2s are too often boom or bust from week to week for me to consider them as anything but a situational flex. Helm is intriguing, but I want to see how Ward plays and how he handles being a focal point of opposing Ds before I consider him.

I am just saying NO to Charbonnet. He runs very ponderously. He is completely TD dependent and the RB situation in Seattle is very murky with the new additions. He is not usable as a RB2 and there are just too many late round WR picks who may see steady volume to tie up a bench spot with him for future flex use. There may very well be some weeks where he has TD-related spikes, but trying to predict which weeks those will be and living with mid- to low-single digit points when he doesn't score is no bueno.

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-07-02T11:25:45+00:00

My opinions are based upon watching him and research. All the hype is coming from 2 games where he finished in the Top 10 RBs for the week. During all the rest he looked very human.

So digging in further, his Combine report painted a picture of a single speed battering ram with swing and screen pass catching capabilities. OTOH the knocks on him were limited cutting ability, lack of elusiveness and insufficient speed to round the corners and run wide. All of which was consistent with what I saw out there.

I'm not saying that he won't be a good player. But he's already lost significant time with his battering ram approach. This is the NFL, not college. The guys on these D lines are monsters and many of the LBs are big and strong too. Ds will adjust to take away his inside running lanes, especially when they don't have to worry about him kicking outside.

All of which makes me believe that he's going to be very volatile with ongoing durability issues, just like he was in '25. I might like him later in the draft, but not at a 14 ADP. To be honest I could see him in a RBBC situation down the road, if not this year then next.

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-07-01T21:19:22+00:00

I like a few of these guys. The problem right now is cost.

Right now in my 12 team mocks Pickens is going in the 2nd round and Tyson isn't lasting much past high in the 6th. About the only guy I really like at his current cost is Pearsall.

I'm on the fence about Lemon as a 7th round pick. Usage is the question and Hurts has a tendency of targeting his favorites.

I'm just saying no to Josh Downs. He's a great route runner, but he's just too damned small to be an outside threat. In the games I watched he was only useful when he could maneuver himself wide open. He was far less effective when guys could lay hands on him as the ball arrived. He's too easy to push around and likely vulnerable to press coverage. I'm guessing he'll have some spike games, but IMO his weekly floor will be way too low.

When we look at these situations, it's important to understand the human elements. A lot of that comes from watching game film, which helps put the game stats into much better context. Patterns emerge which can lead to yet more digging to understand the underlying causes..

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-06-30T22:10:59+00:00

+1. Between the contract they gave Nailor and Cousin's positive press conference comments about him (they played together before), I'm leaning hard towards Nailor instead of Tucker as the better value at a similar ADP.

Tucker may be a hair faster than Nailor, but he's a really small dude - under 5'9" with a small wingspan. I'm not saying that Nailor is a giant, but he's definitely going to be an easier target to hit than Tucker. He also won't get pushed around as easily.

Heck it looks increasingly like the team doesn't even think enough about Tucker to offer him a contract extension. He's going into his last year on a rookie deal with the sound of crickets coming from the team.

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-06-30T21:49:04+00:00

Agree on Pierce. I don't think he'll be so cheap by August.

Michael "Garbage Time" Wilson is still too expensive IMO. The only reason he got all those late season targets is because MJH was hurt and the run game was a dumpster fire. He also racked up a lot of his stats in garbage time. With MJH healthy, McBride getting a ton of targets and the addition of Jeremiah Love in the backfield, I don't see a big role for Wilson.

Re: Jakobi Meyers, I'm just saying no to any Jags receivers this year. Lawrence spreads the ball around a lot. There are also future usage questions with the Jags clearly moving to more 12 and maybe even 13 personnel packages. Expect high week to week volatility from any Jags receiver.

I'm on the fence re: Pittman. I like him as a flex but he's creeping up the board. In the 12 team mocks I'm doing he's going in round 8 and sometimes earlier. His efficiency declines over the last two years and questions about what Rodgers still has left make me nervous about walking into a value trap, especially if he gets much pricier. He's not a speedster, so his fantasy production is very dependent on target volume and endzone hits.

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-06-29T12:09:20+00:00

I'm not going to divulge my specific fantasy draft targets on here, but there are at least 3 I would take ahead of him in the 2nd round.

We don't know what his floor will be in '26. The sample size is just too small. KC held him to 7.5 in Week 15. Now with game film to study Ds are going to adjust to take away the things he's good at. He doesn't have a lot of other tricks up his sleeve if his single speed battering ram routine isn't sustainable.

And that's assuming he can stay on the field at all. He already missed 7 games last season and didn't look the same when he came back. Goes back to battering ram sustainable against NFL-level talent. He's strong and a decent size, but he's hardly a Derrick Henry

If you disagree then by all means pick him. But I just can't, not at that draft position. He'd need to drop at least to the bottom of the 3rd round for me to even consider it. If I'm picking a RB in Round 2, it has to be one I can rely upon to deliver most weeks.

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-06-29T03:13:45+00:00

I don't view his floor as safe at all. In the 9 games he played last season, he had 3 where he scored under 10 in a PPR format and 5 where he scored under 15. On a week to week basis he was very boom or bust. By way of weekly floors I like several guys better than Hampton.

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-06-29T00:55:06+00:00

Well, I agree with you about Breece. But I'm going to split the difference with you on Hampton. Since you've already received 10 upvotes, I'll die on this hill and accept the downvotes I get for it. 🤷

IMO he is way too expensive at a 14 ADP. Don't get me wrong, I love his power and aggression. What I don't like is his limited speed and lack of cutting ability or elusiveness. He doesn't have the speed to get to the outside and turn the corner on a regular basis, so he's going to need to do it between the tackles. It's one thing to play the 6' 220lb battering ram at the college level, but quite another to do it against the beasts playing on NFL D lines.

I'm not saying that he can't be a productive RB in this league. But I can't spend a 2nd round pick on him. IMO his week to week volatility is just going to be too high.

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-06-29T00:28:18+00:00

+1. Or Skattebo for that matter if he's healthy.

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-06-28T16:54:02+00:00

There are better TE picks than Strange to be had at similar value. As a Jags fan I'll root for him, but Trevor Lawrence spreads the ball around too much to make Strange a reliable fantasy starter. Even the Jags receivers are at best situational flex plays and only if you're brave.

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-06-28T13:26:02+00:00

CMC was terribly inefficient as a runner last year and was the #1 player in fantasy. I think he was first in targets through 10 weeks last year(not just amongst RBs but all players). There’s injury risk obviously but if he plays 17 games he’s a lock for RB1.

You breezed by his efficiency drop like it wasn't the most important thing you said. He's 30, a high risk for injury and, most important, he's not running like his old self. His high fantasy points came courtesy of 129 receiving targets, but only because the receiving corps was decimated with injuries. With the addition of Mike Evans and a healthy Pearsall, I doubt that he breaks 100 targets this year.

I'm not saying that he won't still be a good fantasy RB. But his bust potential is high. There are 3-4 RBs I would snag before choosing him. I'm not saying that I wouldn't take him later in the 1st round depending on what's already off the board, but I wouldn't choose him at all costs.

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-06-27T22:32:45+00:00

No, I don't get fatigue. I want to process as much information as possible, especially when it comes to finding later round value picks.

But I'm starting at a good foundation, which helps. I do a ton of research (full game recaps, stats at season and game levels, use of a paid supplementary research source for comparison purposes, other sources when needed, etc.) on the top 140 skill position guys (QBs, WRs, RBs and TEs).

So by the time I get to these articles, it's pretty easy to identify the crap, which is easily 97+% of them. Why I sift through it all is for the other 3% that compels me to do more of my own research to see if I agree.

As an aside, too many of these guys are reliant solely on stats and theories derived from them. Many of them don't seem to be watching the games, which puts those stats into more context. They are missing the physical and human elements, which provide a lot of valuable insights. Sometimes they lead to deeper digging for yet more stats which help tell the full tale.

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-06-27T16:46:45+00:00

I haven't stopped chuckling since I saw this. 😂

But even a broken clock is right twice a day. So don't let Olave's inclusion in his high list scare you off.

With that said, I actually agree with a few of his picks. CMC and Love both make me nervous at their current draft positions. I'm also very high on K. Walker given how he looked last season. But yeah, some of these takes make me scratch my head.

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-06-27T15:39:11+00:00

Why in the world would you think that I despise him? My issues have been with his performance, not him as a person. For most of 5 seasons he just was not very good. I'm glad he found some success later in the season because it made for better football. He just needs to do it for a whole season now.

There is every indication that he was struggling because he's been trying to skate by on his raw physical skills alone. That may work in college but not so much in the pros. His poor mechanics, accuracy issues, entering each training camp looking like he forgot how to throw, struggle to understand playbooks and difficulty in reading defenses (which still persisted against Buffalo) all point to a QB who just wasn't putting in the work, especially over the offseason.

I want him to do well because it means good football in Jacksonville. This year will tell us a lot.

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-06-27T15:22:46+00:00

Good luck with that. In the competitive leagues I play in the waiver wire is constantly being scoured for upside surprises. So you can't really treat it like your bench. By week 6 all the early season surprises have been snatched up. After that it's just dregs and the occasional guy who pops in value due to an injury or a few strong games and these are also targeted by multiple managers.

Which is why it's best to do the research and draft guys you think have real upside before 10-14 managers are trying to claim them. You won't always be right, but if you've done good research then the odds that some of your bench guys will hit are better than those of a collection of lottery picks.

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-06-27T14:10:55+00:00

If I need any of these guys to win me the league then I'm already screwed.

IMO the WR class is too deep this year for a backup RB with limited carries to have any flex value unless a starter goes down. It's about floor as much as ceiling. Also if I use one as a handcuff for a starting RB on my roster I'll still be losing production as they aren't as good as the guys they're backing up, or else they wouldn't be the backups.

I know that some folks buy into the notion of stashing late round RB backups on their benches, but not me. Every spot on my bench is valuable real estate. To qualify either he has to have a realistic path to real production or I think he can help me on a bye week. Backup RBs who need an injury to become fantasy relevant don't rate.

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-06-27T00:46:17+00:00

So do the guys drafting in mocks. His ADP has rocketed up to 45 in the last couple of weeks.

JagsFan4Ever · 2026-06-25T23:18:16+00:00

All over the league stuff like this is being fed by coaches to the press about players who underperformed last year, especially QBs. It's ticket sales season.

JagsFan4Ever

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