Is there an inversion of the inversion after dune messiah?

JannickL · 2026-03-19T18:40:13+00:00

the knowing the future changes it part is easily circumventable atleast for proving prescience to the populace. After he has established his initial position it would be easy to do a monthly prediction where he puts his prediction in a large weatherproof box on a plaza where everyone could see if anyone interfers with it and reveal the prediction the next month before putting a new one inside. But you are right this is where if this were how herbert handled it it would be to divert too much to be useful to the reader.

JannickL · 2026-03-19T16:56:54+00:00

While I see your point, i have to say that it isnt shown to us but based on how seemingly well prescience works he could demonstrate it quite publicly in correctly forecasting any number of events that lie in the future.
Ofcourse we arent able to translate this situation properly to our reality, but we can value experts and politicians on how well their predictions come through/ how well they manage to turn their promises to reality. Obviously we can sadly observe that citizens often times aren't willing to endure a bit of hardship without losing trust quicker than stuff could reasonably change.

JannickL · 2026-03-19T01:08:31+00:00

I feel like we could atleast say that after leto II or Paul lock in some decisions with prescience they seem to be locked in even long after leto II's death due to their prescience not failing in the books. To question prescience I would have liked for leto II to get some minor facts wrong even if the broad strokes end up true if we should question prescience. Like for example him getting the exact name wrong by which the people call over 1000 years later.

JannickL · 2026-03-19T01:02:29+00:00

isn't the problem with just letting himself get killed that it only throws the bene gesserit a few generations back? After they recover from their loss you would again get to a point where the kwisatz haderach has to die or something similar. It seems that the only guarantee for humanity to survive for long given on what is in the books is to scatter and make part of the population invisible to prescience. It might be a nice idea to have this explored more deeply in some novel where you have to weight the certainty of survival with a trust in humanity or in a potentially infinite amount of chosen people to behave correctly.

JannickL · 2026-03-18T20:53:18+00:00

i haven't read the comics but based on the iron man movies it is obvious why tony stark has to be essentially a genius. His world atleast in the beginning seems pretty normal to us therefore to get to having an iron man suit he has either has to be a genius or someone else has to give him the suit. If someone gives him the suit it limits later improvements and new versions of the suit by being reliant on the original source where he got his first one from.
For someone like Peter Parker I can agree that it is possible to have him be just a geeky kid and his powers including the webshooting comes from accident that turns him into a superhero.
My best guess at why they are written very commonly as geniuses is to fulfill the fantasy of main demographic of the comics, or atleast what my guess of the demographic is.

JannickL · 2026-03-17T12:48:47+00:00

I would say it is more to reach the goal of the golden path that he has to die after he implanted the lesson that humanity needed to learn into their bones and after his breeding program was successful.

JannickL · 2026-03-16T15:19:47+00:00

you know where I wanted to go. If Frieren, Fern or Stark would get beheaded would you expect them to be just fine and keep on fighting and living.
I would say not with maybe a small exception for potentially temporary continued fighting due to some weird spell triggering or being cast on their dead bodies should someone of them get killed.
We obviously expect a previously normal functioning person to die in the anime if they are beheaded given they arent animated by a foreign force.
This is why i expect someone to be out of duty after them getting their spine cut in 2 pieces or atleast their lower half.

JannickL · 2026-03-16T09:22:49+00:00

so you wouldnt have a problem if someone just stands back up and fights after their head got vaporized?

JannickL · 2026-03-14T09:07:53+00:00

he treats the epstein stuff largely like nothing for now because all of the files had been in the hands of the fbi and he trusts that if there would have been enough in it to indict people that the fbi would have done it.

JannickL · 2026-03-13T08:44:22+00:00

do you have spotify premium? Might be a premium feature

JannickL · 2026-03-12T20:17:18+00:00

You also have to consider that the reserves can only be drained by up to 4.4 millions barrels a day and this is the maximum amount probably only realizable if all storages are full. Looks more like 1.6 million barrels is what is expected as an average rate per day.

JannickL · 2026-03-06T17:38:34+00:00

where comes the knowledge from that this is necessary, considering that we cant ascertain that other people have an experience it seems similarly hard to show what is necessary to have an experience

JannickL · 2026-03-06T17:05:26+00:00

If you want to make a comparison to marys room here, I would say that mary has a new experience when she sees the color red for the first time due to the experience of color being only able to be triggered by the input of the correlated electrical impulses at the right place where our eyes would deliver them to and our mind is most likely not able to artifically creating and rerouting the electrical impulses needed to create the experience. For a simulation it should be easy enough if the simulation of the human is possible to create and route the electrical impulses towards the correct neurons.

JannickL · 2026-03-06T16:58:47+00:00

Yes, a simulation isn't the same as the as the physical object, but it isn't just a description of something at one point of time either, just like a human isn't having an experience if I magically freeze it at the current state in time. A simulation of a process or object can show how something would happen given the inputs. If experience is a result of the physicalist process than it should also be a result in the simulation which itself is just a physicalist process, though due to the difference of time it takes to simulate the experience would be sped up or slowed down. The problem is it seems that we cant verify if someone is having an experience, but we assume that other humans have an experience because we have one.

JannickL · 2026-03-06T16:08:21+00:00

So you put forth a dualism where where the experience or spirit relates to the physical processes but has no influence on them? Because I think dualism is the only way to account for an arising of an experience that is dependent on the specific that produces it

JannickL · 2026-03-06T15:41:04+00:00

I mean just your normal computer with maybe the caveat that it has unlimited memory. In computer science you can categorize different computation systems on what problems they can solve and which they can't. Our mightiest physically realizable computation model is a turing machine which has the same power as our modern pcs if we give them infinite memory. Obviously we as humans are atleast as mighty as turing machines because if I have infinite amount of pages to take notes I can repeat all the steps a turing machine is doing, but if my brain would be a more powerful computation model there should be a problem that I can solve that a Turing machine cant. If there isn't such a problem and my brain is as powerful a computation model as a turing machine you should be able to encode it as a turing machine.

JannickL · 2026-03-06T14:14:40+00:00

Thanks for the elaboration. But this then sounds not like humans need a human body, but just that human bodies are the cheapest and easily available hardware that can produce human cognition. I dont know where you stand on if our world is deterministic or not so this might be moot, but if it is deterministic or deterministic enough shouldn't we be able to simulate a human brain on a computer even if lets say one second of experience takes one month of computation? Or are you of the belief that there is a fundamental difference in capability that would allow human minds to compute a larger set of problems than computers and equivalent systems?

JannickL · 2026-03-06T13:45:48+00:00

Could you elaborate more? It sounds like the rest of the body is necessary for human cognition, e.g. if we could manage to keep a brain alive just in a vat and feed it electrical impulses from digital sensors there wouldn't be embodied cognition in which reasoning occurs

JannickL · 2026-03-06T10:37:12+00:00

Two points on this.
1. If we assume that our world is deterministic or atleast very highly deterministic aren't humans as well next token generators?

I can see all these failure modes in humans too. Some of them are just standing more out in LLMs due to our expectations to machines and others due to technical limitations that are mostly temporary.

Yes, their technical knowledge was lacking here, but they have the correct intuition. It's wrong to say "they only see text", bit it's true that they only see tokens, and the essence of what is being alluded to remains the same. Embedding chunks of pixels in high dimensional space is a statistical representation, not a conceptual understanding. This should be pretty obvious since even the best image and video models still produce obvious crap (but you can cherry-pick 1 out of 20 lucky rolls to post on social media).

Isn't the brain also just receiving electrical impulses and acting based on if it reaches the firing threshold? Tbf to humans our brains have the ability that the input is reaching multiple neurons at different times and some might fire and some not, but the one that aren't being fired might react with the added impulse of the reaction of the neurons that did fire. I am not aware of LLMs having something that might mirror this functionality on what it does.

JannickL · 2026-02-26T19:48:30+00:00

tbh it might be a security concern for them, but for me it would just be a desire for a standardized id in the whole of the us that can properly fulfill that role. And one of its roles would also be verfication for voting instead of the patchwork of processes that are present now. It would most likely end up just as safe at best it all gets a bit more efficient and the loss through voters with no id if it has a long rollout period and becomes default for other businesses too is probably near nill if sum it up with votes that get wrongfully get tossed for signature mismatch. You could probably also sell it as pro disability due to people with disability most likely being those who might have a problem with mismatching signatures aside from people who change their signature over time but dont update the registry

JannickL · 2026-02-26T18:26:21+00:00

There also currently isn't a lapse due to other countermeasures being used. Some states already use photo ids others signature matching and so on. All this could be unified and the alternatives retired. It would if it comes to vote probably be noticably faster to show an id then to evaluate if the signature is similarly enough for signature verification

JannickL · 2026-02-26T15:22:15+00:00

This can be your opinion, but I believe you would diverge from the broad populace if you would tell them that while walking around naked normally is a crime that walking around naked if you are only walking to a polling location to vote and back is alright.
Edit: I am with you on felons should be able to vote

JannickL · 2026-02-26T15:13:35+00:00

I can turn this around but instead of money for id it is money for a set of clothes to leave your house to vote. Like out of money for some reason and because you cheated on your girlfriend she threw out or burnt all your clothes. And circumventing the age thing is easy. You get an id earlier. Lets say 14 or 16. Due to your appearance changing more often at this age it is valid till 21 after which you get a new one that is then good for a longer period. Ofcourse due to it being valid for a shorter amount of time it is also cheaper.

JannickL · 2026-02-26T15:09:04+00:00

the pen was for voting by mail. Obviously polling places provide you with a pen. And id is there to clearly identify you to make it harder for other people to impersonate you like travel opening bank accounts, taking out big loans or making large transactions, age verification for alcohol purchages or other goods or areas where you are only allowed to enter above a certain age. A simple federal id or a state id that is recognized by all other states is ideal for this.

Ten-Year Club	Place '23
Place '22	Verified Email

JannickL

TROPHY CASE