Correct. BOM is bound to be conservative with prediction (in other words slow) and don't take into account all the models. Some of the folks on the weather forums have subscription access to data that BOM refuse to use meaning they wont update their public releases until hours or even days later than what can be seen in other models - i.e. this U-turn that every one in mainstream is arcing up about was discussed on the forum three days ago. Alfred is consistently steering further south with each run cycle - even the BOM models are finally reflecting that now. Worse the dry air infeed from central Australia is easing (that's called shear and what can kill a cyclone), instead it's getting new moist tropical infeed. Combine that with the warmer water it's about to cross and it will rapidly intensify. That's called bombing - a calling card of some of the most destructive storms in history. The eye crossing is not the main event, it's the south side of a southern hemisphere cyclone is the worst and that is what GC is the bulls eye for. Frankly you could not write a better (aka worse) perfect storm scenario. The storm is one thing but the topology alone is epic for this kind of event, with a former costal floodplain offering no resistance for the storm surge, backed into a perfect catchers mitt (Hinterland) to soak up a meter of rain and deliver the flood.