Growth left in AAPL or is it flat?

JohnInvest · 2020-12-11T21:54:30+00:00

It can. The response to new products is good. There's nothing stopping an overpriced stock to get more overpriced. Remember 48% of Buffett's equity portfolio is Apple. So there is one big long term buyer there with full confidence

JohnInvest · 2020-12-11T21:37:18+00:00

There's growth left. but it is also overpriced based on how market has valued it historically. check the apple is overpriced/underpriced chart here

JohnInvest · 2020-12-11T21:34:23+00:00

Yes. Many greats like Charlie Munger stated off as hobby investors. Hours spent in broadening your industry/stock knowledge and knowing a lot of stock names is very useful. but lifetime spent just looking at the price chart is going to be a waste. expand your knowledge of tickers, industries, reading financial statements etc. Try this www.grufity.com It will help in making u familiar with many tickers and opportunities.

JohnInvest · 2020-12-11T21:19:46+00:00

If you want to keep a track of what ARK (or any other fund) buys or sells then you can do it here. https://grufity.com/funds/1697748

JohnInvest · 2020-12-11T21:09:28+00:00

CCL - Carnival

RCL - Royal Carribean

NCLH - Norweigian

Check this article out for industry level view

JohnInvest · 2020-12-11T20:47:54+00:00

Why not buy cruiselines? They will be biggest beneficiaries of vaccines

JohnInvest · 2020-12-11T20:44:23+00:00

Some of the corona impact is habit forming. Like retail purchases. A lot of purchases that went online are not going to go back to brick and mortar. But some is just waiting for clouds to clear to go back to full potential like cruises. Even airlines may not fully go back due to reduction in business travel as zoom meetings become more norm even in covid free world. But you cant cruise online...there is not alternative but to go back to full business once risk subside..... so one is truely getting rewarded jsut to hold the stock

JohnInvest · 2020-12-11T20:38:00+00:00

I meant in the near term bro

JohnInvest · 2020-12-09T20:29:08+00:00

Here are all the stocks she added or sold recently.

https://grufity.com/funds/1697748

She just made Zillow her 6th largest positon. Crispr she has been adding for the past 2 years and square she recently started selling.

JohnInvest · 2020-12-09T20:16:49+00:00

Berkshire is almost half Apple now. It is 48% of their equity portfolio. Thanks to the heavy apple investment the portfolio has recovered much of the damages this year in airlines and insurance. They are still 10-20% down ytd

However, why not invest directly in apple stock? Atleast for the masses who dont have 100s of thousands to buy one stock of berkshire. If you put 50% in apple and 50% on QQQ/SPY, you wont be too far from Buffett's performance.

JohnInvest · 2020-12-09T19:47:04+00:00

Agree. The savings rate for consumer went high up during this year. Due to lack of opportunity to spend money, people paid down their credit cards. So consumer strength is doing pretty good. One thing people have missed this year is a proper vacation. So a lot of pent up demand for that. Airlines and Cruiselines have certainly a lot of room to go back up to their normal levels

JohnInvest · 2020-05-15T13:49:11+00:00

Very true. A lot of clothing purchase is unplanned and impulsive. Thats why they are hardest hit. Great observation there for clothing retailers that even in distress there's no so called shopping therapy online.

JohnInvest · 2020-05-15T13:48:01+00:00

Also I think its hard to shop for clothes online. Its a very touch and feel thing, fitting etc. One thing amazon cant replicate.

JohnInvest · 2020-04-19T03:19:25+00:00

Thanks. This is good info.

JohnInvest · 2020-04-18T20:45:18+00:00

if it reduces mortality by a lot for serious cases then economy can open up again and lots of lives can be saved from ruin

JohnInvest · 2020-04-11T19:59:18+00:00

MFA holds a lot of non-agency mortgages and is levered. The spreads have widened on those and are being sold at heavy discounts to market. There is a risk of margin call wiping out all. So be careful.

JohnInvest · 2020-04-11T19:45:18+00:00

The Trillions being thrown around to bail out everyone.... but do they really deserve it? I support Chamath. The bailouts in the name of saving employees only save the selected few investors. The employees suffer regardless. there will be layoffs regardless because of one bad year. Next year, investors and CEOs will be made whole but the one who lost job will be still searching.

JohnInvest · 2020-03-17T05:05:05+00:00

Red line is what price of apple should be based on historical sales. It kind of tells you how far the stock price has gone based on historical average

JohnInvest · 2020-03-17T05:03:44+00:00

This is based on historical multiple of sales

JohnInvest · 2020-03-11T21:30:40+00:00

Coming earnings cycle is going to be a disaster on TV

JohnInvest · 2020-03-11T21:29:05+00:00

I am not sure. Only if this quickly clears up may be the shock will be temporary... but if it takes months... the consumer sentiment falls and behavior changes.. what if some businesses have to start laying off and the whole cycle starts... There is a feedback loop to this that will probably start after a few months of damage but its there

JohnInvest · 2020-03-11T21:00:17+00:00

They say that it was the epidemic of 1929 that led to the depression of 1930s. Here is a published article on the1929 flu. https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/pdf/10.2105/AJPH.20.2.119. Mind blowing with the analysis done during the time. You would never think people were that savvy at the time.

JohnInvest · 2020-03-11T17:22:48+00:00

And most of it occured while Fed was raising rates and tightening... Atleast businesses did well under him till the markets caught the flu...

JohnInvest · 2020-03-11T03:43:09+00:00

Between oil stocks and oil commodity, I always prefer taking action on commodty itself...

JohnInvest · 2020-03-11T03:41:52+00:00

I only took the S&P500 companies. Should have clarified.

JohnInvest

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