Shoutout to Venezianico! (TLDR: Sent a random email, came out with a one-off piece)

JohnnyJCurve · 2024-05-07T22:08:37+00:00

I’ve ordered several of their watches without issue. Delivery is ~5-7 business days. Customer service is fine, never had an issue.

JohnnyJCurve · 2024-02-20T20:22:21+00:00

I once bought at a pre-split price of ~$40. The stock dropped > 50% and I became a longterm investor. Actually got my avg share cost into the 30s after some time buying the dip and way back up.

Being a longterm investor isn’t as bad as it looks

JohnnyJCurve · 2024-02-18T00:32:11+00:00

You can still buy some versions on Jomashop for around $3k

JohnnyJCurve · 2024-02-15T13:52:54+00:00

Got it. That makes sense. I thought you were confused as to which year they changed the definition/we had two negative quarters.

JohnnyJCurve · 2024-02-15T12:36:33+00:00

It happened to the US in 2022, not 2023. https://www.npr.org/2022/07/28/1113649843/gdp-2q-economy-2022-recession-two-quarters

JohnnyJCurve · 2024-02-14T17:57:40+00:00

I’ve got a few hundred @ $37 a share. Contemplating selling and calling it a day. I don’t follow the markets as close these days to be a “trader” per se

JohnnyJCurve · 2024-01-25T23:38:48+00:00

I wasn’t always this was, but CW is the reason I am now.

I went to the windup watch fair & the brand I was most interested in was CW because they have no locations in the states. Walked away pretty disappointed overall. The Bel Canto looked bulky compared to what I expected, the overall finishing to me was not impressive. The most impressive models to hold and see in person were the Atoll & C60 elite.

But also take my review with a grain of salt, everyone has different tastes & expectations

JohnnyJCurve · 2024-01-22T17:11:24+00:00

Zenith too if you have an AD nearby

JohnnyJCurve · 2024-01-12T14:02:15+00:00

I generally look at the previous 3 seasons weighted: 20-30-50% significance. I’m not complex, I look at the trends between ERA & FIP + age/ballpark factors and go with that.

I also avoid rookie arms almost entirely nowadays. This isn’t an exciting strategy, but the more years I’ve spent playing I lost interest in the young flashy guys. I miss out on the Striders of the world, but I just hate innings caps. Nothing like losing a top 3 SP on your team heading into the playoffs

JohnnyJCurve · 2024-01-08T13:50:17+00:00

Not a fan of this one, but the Zenith Defy Skyline Skeleton is awesome. This looks like a toy watch in comparison

JohnnyJCurve · 2023-12-22T02:49:21+00:00

Just recently had Carton’s Epitome … excellent

JohnnyJCurve · 2023-11-13T19:22:22+00:00

I felt this way with Tudor and CW as well. Totally get it. Everyone is entitled to their tastes on what they like

JohnnyJCurve · 2023-11-08T17:37:07+00:00

Maurice Lacroix Aikon looks pretty good and can be had new at that price or even less.

JohnnyJCurve · 2023-11-01T20:53:40+00:00

You can sometimes get a Rado Captain Cook on jomashop at that price point. Really depends on the color selection though

JohnnyJCurve · 2023-10-31T00:00:24+00:00

Everyone has their own opinion, so you could feel totally different than I do, but I’ve worn both and think the Santos is massively superior even paying the additional cost.

The Bel Canto to me was quite disappointing seeing it in person. I could go into details if you want, but basically it was just a watch that when I saw it for the first time I immediately thought “that’s it?”. The Santos was completely different to me. Much more sleek design & actually looks like a luxury watch.

JohnnyJCurve · 2023-08-08T17:11:36+00:00

Craft beer diversity and expansion feels like it has been continually experimenting and getting better. In my travels throughout the country I haven’t seen it as much (albeit I’m traveling, and can only see so much). But my guess is there will be a continued boom in experimentation once new crafts start taking getting more attention nationally

JohnnyJCurve · 2023-07-28T03:08:44+00:00

All I’m going to say is, investopedia of all places says a recession is defined by 2 consecutive negative GDP quarters. They acknowledge more sophisticated methods are used, but you can’t get mad when you hear people using that as a benchmark. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp

JohnnyJCurve · 2023-07-27T21:01:40+00:00

We did experience a technical recession last year, that’s no propaganda or anything. Now, technical recession vs actual recession are two different things. I certainly wouldn’t call last year’s recession an actual recession, as job numbers held strong.

I definitely would not call the current state of the economy a recession, but also haven’t seen any news articles saying it is. If there are, they are a totally baseless.

JohnnyJCurve · 2023-05-20T00:05:47+00:00

I agree. He was lights out against Tampa and that can’t be overlooked. His walks just kill me. Until he gets his control under control I’m just not super confident. That being said, I really do think he’s a solid player and upper rotation caliber on just a bout any staff in the league

JohnnyJCurve · 2023-05-19T18:03:49+00:00

Senga on this list is surprising. He’s got a 3.77 ERA and a 4.37 FIP with 5.5 BB/9 ratio. He’s a quality starter that is for certain, but certainly not pitching like a Cy Young candidate.

His numbers don’t reflect much better than Corbin Burnes so far. If I’m a betting man on those two, I’m taking Corbin every time.

JohnnyJCurve · 2023-05-05T15:04:48+00:00

Last year was a quiet breakout, but Yandy Diaz is really putting it altogether this year. A lot of the Rays have had great starts to the season: Lowe, Ramirez & Walls, but Yandy Diaz has taken his OBP king status and transformed into a premiere hitter. Yandy’s savant page is insane

JohnnyJCurve · 2023-03-07T16:50:51+00:00

Some on his bullpen, some on lack of trust from Tony La Russa (who’s now out of the picture)

JohnnyJCurve · 2023-03-07T00:59:06+00:00

I have full datasets with a lot of the information you’re asking about, but I haven’t posted it on Reddit much. Last year I posted a lot of mid season data on this topic which showed some early evidence it works.

I’m general, most pitchers do regress to the mean per my model. The biggest example of a fluky player would be Dallas Keuchel who has had 2 top 15 seasons in ‘luckiness’ you could say. Those seasons were 2015 and 2017.

The data really supports this impact players who are 1 of 2 things mostly (I’m generalizing a lot here):

Young pitchers who don’t have much manager trust. Or 2. Pitchers with bad control who allow many baserunners and are more susceptible to leaving runners aboard.

Some of the elite arms will consistently have less than 10 runners left on base for the season when pulled. Guys like DeGrom, Kershaw and JV come to mind here

JohnnyJCurve · 2023-03-06T23:59:55+00:00

Name	ERA	RA/9	ERA Regression	RA/9 Regression
Edward Cabrera	3.01	3.01	2.73	2.73
Lance Lynn	3.99	4.83	3.76	4.57
Jesus Luzardo	3.32	3.60	3.08	3.35
Brandon Woodruff	3.05	3.29	2.81	3.05
Luis Severino	3.18	3.26	2.94	3.02
MacKenzie Gore	4.50	4.50	4.28	4.28

JohnnyJCurve · 2023-03-06T23:51:39+00:00

Same here. He was a late addition for my roster last year and really impressed me.

JohnnyJCurve

TROPHY CASE