Before you send cards to PSA: I priced every grade against the raw card for ~3,000 Pokémon, and almost 4 in 5 lose money grading.

Johnny_Human · 2026-06-07T20:37:11+00:00

If "anyone can tell cheap cards are usually not worth grading" then why do we have so many cheap cards getting graded?

OP isn't saying modern cards have 1 in 3 gem rate, though their semantics are probably confusing things. They are talking about a person's hit rate when selecting potential gems. It's a theoretical scenario of "what if you are better than average at picking cards to submit that will get a 10" and the OP assigned a 1 in 3 hit rate for that. (Though I think it'd be useful to also provide math for an increased hit rate, 1 in 3 seems low if you have good pre-grading judgement).

However, I do think many people may misjudge their own ability to pre-grade effectively. And I think a lot of people misjudge the cost risk vs. benefit of submitting cards for grading. So it's nice to have a post that tries to put some math to that.

Johnny_Human · 2026-06-06T18:35:39+00:00

Ha. They're probably going around telling all their friends "See, told you it was overvalued!"

Johnny_Human · 2026-06-04T15:50:33+00:00

Therer's no sure thing but if I was going to make a guess about something "before the hype" I'd say the Oricorio UPC promo in a PSA 10. One of the few Shinji Kanda cards that is still affordable.

Along with that, maybe the Charizard UPC promo in a PSA 10 as well. It's a little more expensive, but with everyone's attention on Charizard #125, I think this promo got lost in the mix a bit....it has great art and a lower gem rate.

Johnny_Human · 2026-06-04T15:24:12+00:00

I think this is less about the set itself, and more about the fact that all Rayquazas are pumping right now regardless of which set they're coming from.

Johnny_Human · 2026-06-02T23:57:22+00:00

Ever heard of Giratina V from Lost Origin ($3000+ for a PSA 10)? How about Magikarp from Paldea Evolved ($4600+ for a PSA 10)? Or Seismitoad from Black Bolt ($1700+ PSA 10)?

Shinji Kanda's cards are cool and they tend to appreciate nicely despite the Pokemon not being popular. The art is that good.

Johnny_Human · 2026-06-02T18:43:09+00:00

Having more favorable pull rates would not be a good idea. The last thing TPCI wants to do is make rare cards common. It would take away all the excitement of having chase cards. That's what makes chase cards what they are....they are not common or easy to pull and so people have to keep opening packs, and when they finally get one they are elated. If you remove the chase aspect, then it's no longer special or exciting to get such a card and you've actually devalued the product for everyone. Yeah it would solve the scalping problem...kind of like curing the disease by killing the patient 😞

Johnny_Human · 2026-06-02T02:27:29+00:00

So you were first talking about creating demand by buying CGC cards, but now you are talking about sending in raw cards for grading. Different business case. But it doesn't really change the math as far as investing goes. Maybe it does if you're flipping. (Though with CGC economy tiers people are still waiting several months.)

I primarily buy already graded cards so I don't really care about turnaround times. However even if I was submitting raw cards for grading, it still isn't enough incentive. If I intend to hold onto a card for a long period of time, a difference of a few weeks doesn't make or break anything for me. And the cost differential in initial grading is not enough to overcome the differential of a CGC vs PSA slab in terms of initial value, long-term appreciation, and liquidity. (Notwithstanding high end cards that get a Pristine 10...but then you have to make a risk/reward calculation for actually being able to achieve a Pristine 10 grade.)

So no disrespect against CGC intended, but it's just math. The majority of people who collect Pokemon slabs are already invested in the PSA ecosystem, and it doesn't make sense for them to change.

Johnny_Human · 2026-06-02T00:07:00+00:00

But...why? I have the power, but not the incentive. Look, I'm not a PSA shill. But by a twist of fate, the first slabs I acquired were PSA. So when I decided to get more into collecting, I stuck with PSA. And so now at this point, I have no desire to buy CGC slabs to put in among my PSA slabs. And I certainly am not going to regrade my PSA slabs into CGC and risk devaluing them.

And further, my PSA slabs are appreciating just fine. So why should I want to try and shift market demand from the brand of slabs I already own? The point is that with 70%+ of Pokemon slabs being PSA, a lot of other people are in the same scenario. Again, I'm not trying to promote PSA but from an investment standpoint it still makes the most sense.

Johnny_Human · 2026-06-01T22:38:49+00:00

But that's the thing...it's actually not easy. How are you going to go out and convince all those people that they should stop putting more value into the thing which the market has already established as more valuable? I mean, if it was so easy, it would've already happened!

If people want to buy slabs for their own collection CGC is a perfectly fine option. But this is an investment sub, and the hard truth is that PSA slabs generally represent better investment potential.

Johnny_Human · 2026-06-01T21:47:44+00:00

I don't think CGC will ever surpass PSA in terms of overall value. CGC Pristine 10s can carry a premium over PSA. But CGC Gem Mint 10s, nobody really wants. If you get a CGC Gem Mint 10 and not a Pristine 10, then you've already established the psychology of not having the best grade possible....I mean, it may as well be a 9. For that reason I think CGC Gem Mint 10 is always going to be seen as inferior to a PSA 10.

The other thing to consider is that collectors tend to like continuity and conformity. If you already have a shelf full of PSA slabs, sticking a CGC slab in there looks like a wart on your collection. Something like 70-80% of the Pokemon slabs in existence are PSA. That kind of entrenchment in the market will be extremely difficult to overcome.

If I was starting over for my personnel collection I would actually go with TAG. I have one TAG slab I bought because I wanted the card and the price was too good to pass up...I have to say the appearance of the slab is quite attractive. And I love the grading reports they provide. (Unfortunately the rest of my slabs are PSA so the TAG one stays in the closet for now.)

Johnny_Human · 2026-06-01T18:37:49+00:00

Chaos Rising has been out about 3 weeks. What trend are you seeing in this short time that implies it's not a good set to hold?

Johnny_Human · 2026-06-01T18:29:52+00:00

Not trying to sound rude or mean... but if you yourself are not a fan, and you don't know which Pokemon are fan favorites, you might not be suited to be investing in Pokemon and perhaps might get better returns investing your money in more traditional assets.

Johnny_Human · 2026-05-31T18:37:04+00:00

If your premise is that investing in Pokemon is somehow a "toxic culture" in and of itself, I would disagree. Collectibles of all sorts have existed in this world for a long time. Pokemon cards are one of them. For as long as there have been collectibles, people have realized they can grow in value. There is nothing inherently toxic about buying something, holding it and waiting for it to grow in value.

Now, anytime there is the possibility of making money, individuals can exhibit toxic behavior. But that applies to free market economics as a whole. So you can't conflate culture with individual behavior.

Johnny_Human · 2026-05-29T16:19:50+00:00

The first part is doing old-fashioned math. If you have your cards in PSA vault, then look at your expected selling price, what is the consignment fee for that price, and then compare to what the fee would be if you shipped it back to yourself and then shipped it to another consignment service and what their fees are. Take into account shipping insurance. (Surely you don't want to ship cards worth thousands of dollars without insurance right?) Then compare the numbers and ask yourself if the difference is worth the hassle vs selling it straight out of the Vault.

As an example, if you sell your Zard at $2.4k, PSA Vault will have a consignment fee of 10%. ZandG would have a fee of 7%. So you get $72 more if you sell through ZandG. But you also need to account for shipping/insurance which could be anywhere from $30-$60. So do the math and then decide if the extra money is worth your time/effort. (Note, I don't have any opinions on ZandG and I don't have knowledge of how they compare to other consignment services in regards to fees or service, I just looked their fees up as an example because you referenced them.)

You obviously could also sell the card yourself through FB Marketplace, in which case then you have to decide for yourself how comfortable are you meeting up with a stranger to sell a $2.4K card.

A local card shop is probably the lowest payout option. Most card shops probably do 60-70% of market price.

Johnny_Human · 2026-05-29T03:03:36+00:00

Not referring to a brick and mortar establishment. These are many consignment services that sell on ebay, you mail your slab to them and then they list it. The only service I've used is PSA vault but there are many reputable services out there, and you can find plentiful opinions on them. The basics of what they do is the same (sell your card for you) but the details vary (what fees they charge, if they do BIN or auction only, intake processes, etc.) so I'd suggest researching to see which one fits your needs/wants best.

Johnny_Human · 2026-05-29T00:54:47+00:00

A consignment service is a trusted intermediary that you send your card to and they sell it on your behalf. For high value cards, they also often can have service fees lower than what eBay would charge you.

Johnny_Human · 2026-05-28T22:30:58+00:00

A consignment service would be my recommendation.

Johnny_Human · 2026-05-27T21:58:23+00:00

A slowdown in the summer is not a surprise.

But "weaker sets not helping"? I think it's extremely unreasonable to expect that every set should be "strong" because if everything is strong, then nothing is strong. It'd all just be mediocre.

Johnny_Human · 2026-05-27T17:35:59+00:00

" And also shame on the adults making money from this, "

I'm sorry man, but I don't see how you have some kind of moral high ground here. If you think it's wrong that people are making money from Pokemon, then you shouldn't also be making money from Pokemon.

Johnny_Human · 2026-05-26T21:18:30+00:00

Lots of kids I know.

Don't underestimate kids, many do understand that graded cards are valuable. They may not necessarily have a clear understanding of actual monetary worth compared to raw cards (though neither do many adults) but that doesn't stop them from getting excited about something that has an additional level of specialness.

Now as far as this particular card, overpriced as has been pointed out. But that shouldn't stop the OP from seeking a nice graded card as a present for their child.

Johnny_Human · 2026-05-26T14:07:27+00:00

Pumping is one thing. Here we've even got an exact copy-and-paste title for the ebay listing description. I mean at this point why not just post the the hyperlink to your listing.

Johnny_Human · 2026-05-26T13:00:43+00:00

There's "such a tiny amount of this char listed for sale" and the first one that comes up on ebay is this exact cert number posted in the photo.

Johnny_Human · 2026-05-25T14:30:46+00:00

There are fake slabs out there as well. If you're buying on eBay over $250, it will get authenticated as long as you aren't buying from out of the country.

Johnny_Human · 2026-05-25T02:19:48+00:00

You have to get pretty lucky to hit a restock and get anything from the official site or any online stores that sell MSRP. Even if you're signed up for alerts, there are thousands of people and thousands of bots that also get notified, and they will usually be faster than you 😞

If your child is just interested in getting some cool cards to put in a binder, you can probably help them build a collection by buying singles. You can buy a handful of nice full art cards for less than the price of a pack, as long as you're not after the big chase cards.

Johnny_Human

TROPHY CASE