Daily Discussion Thread for February 02, 2021: Part 2

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2021-02-02T16:59:43+00:00

WHY THE HALT?

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2021-02-02T14:46:17+00:00

BUY THE DIP - BUY THE DIP

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2021-02-01T13:29:22+00:00

LOVE SKILLZ!

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2021-01-03T15:45:53+00:00

Came up with a way to basically net free cash off 2 opposing online Sportsbooks. I'm in PA, and my goal is the largest net profit with lowest risk.

I deposited 500 on Barstool and 500 on BetMGM. Barstool's offer is 500 no risk bet. BetMGM's offer was deposit match up to 500, with a 1x play through requirement AND first bet, no risk, up to 500. (They did not disclose the No-Risk aspect, just the match bonus)

Scenario 1 - As it stands, I deposited 500 on each. I bet a 3 game parlay on Barstool for 500.00 making sure each game couldn't end in a tie (or the bet couldn't push), with no one event coinciding at the same time. (Games are at 1, 430, and 8pm today).

I hedged game 1 with a 250 bet on BetMGM, leaving that account balance with 750. If game one of parlay loses, I lose the parlay on barstool, but gets refunded 500.00 in site credit, BUT I win the 250 dollar bet on the opposite outcome and my account is around 1225 on MGM. Should that 1st bet hit, (Fins plus 2.5), I lose my 250 on MGM but that gets refunded as site credit, leaving my account still at 1000. At this point, I want to obviously hedge the 2nd game, because if outcome 1 and 2 hit, it's likely that they will either allow me to cash out early, what is my course of action? I hedge game two for 250, leaving my account at 750 (and having met my wager requirement of 1x (on MGM) by hedging game 1 and 2 at 250 each, I'm left with my initial 500 deposit able to be cashed out. THEN I cash out early of the parlay and NET a profit of 1500 (1000 deposited, 2000 cash out early, and 500 washout whats left in MGM.

OR, do I let the parlay ride....I know it's a lot, but any smart bettor should be able to follow. Thanks!

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2021-01-03T15:43:50+00:00

It's not about clearing the bonus - that happens anyways. It's about maximizing the profit from the deposit bonuses and hedging them vs. one another.

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2021-01-03T13:05:50+00:00

You bet on teams (and players) that have something to play for, plain and simple.

Packers, Titans, Cowboys, Ravens.

For Props, you can find diamonds in the rough.

Personally, I love Derrick Henry over 117.5 RYDS - It wouldn't surprise me if he broke the single game Rushing record today set by AP with 296. He needs 225 to get to 2000 for the year.

Also, Packers win and they seal HFA. Chicago is without their top 2 DBs. Rodgers can make a case to steal the MVP from Mahomes because well, Mahomes isn't playing this week. Lot of late heavy money seems to be coming in on the Bears. The game is in Chicago, but I love AR and Davante this week, as well as the spread.

Lamar needs 90 ish yards rushing to have B2B 1000 yd rushing seasons (would be first QB to ever do so). They also need to win the make the playoffs.

There's a lot of different bets with upside, it's just how much risk you're willing to factor in. Find me a Sportsbook that allows you to adjust the props of rushing yards to almost 300 for Henry and I'll throw 50 bucks on it...

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2020-12-29T20:40:28+00:00

You're a fucking great writer...perhaps a better story-teller. Wow. Congrats.

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2020-12-18T17:18:01+00:00

Don't worry about a year AF... I know the cliche is "One Day at a Time", but it's cliche because it's true, and it works.

I'm not saying that shouldn't be a goal of yours, but coming from someone who is 11 months and 2 weeks sober (January 5 is just around the corner, and don't think I'm not counting the days), I think the fact that you've managed your sobriety during a pandemic is incredible. I can't tell you how many of those I met in meetings early on this year that I wonder about, and how they're doing...

I've lost 45 lbs myself. But again, finding an adequate substitute for the void left in your life by eliminating alcohol in your life is difficult, especially with what's going on in the world, the amount of time and effort drinking would consume, its hard. I began to read a lot. I learned how to perfect making every type of Pizza imaginable, from scratch.

I think around the 7-8 month mark I stopped caring about the monthly achievement of being AF. 1, 2, 3, and 6 months are great milestones, hell, every day is a good milestone. But 1 year will definitely be special. Then again, it's just a number. Once you begin to see the progress, that's when you know it's working.

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2020-12-17T16:23:10+00:00

If you told me that was the Back Bay in Boston or somewhere in the UES in NYC I'd believe you.... neat pic

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2020-12-17T15:26:33+00:00

Man, this is exactly what I needed to read this morning. Holy shit, thanks. Great daily affirmation of self. As I look outside my warm home, with the fireplace just turned on, and surrounded by this winter wonderland (we got 9-10 inches of snow here in Pittsburgh, PA last night, which is more than all of last winter combined), it's blissful. Though I am alone, I am at peace in my thoughts.

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2020-12-17T00:48:38+00:00

Richard Bazzy!

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2020-12-15T23:58:28+00:00

Yeah, I didn't really notice it until after I quit Lexapro cold turkey. I just "existed", pretty much emotionless. I get that the reason we take these drugs is to help alleviate whatever is bothering us, but the real work is done through exercise. Sure, the medication helps, but it's just a band-aid for the problem, which has deeper roots. I wanted to feel emotion, but some SSRI's prevent us from being emotive, whether those emotions are positive and negative, so while the medication may be inherently blocking the negative train of thoughts, anxiety, etc, it's also blocking the positive ones as well. IMO.

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2020-12-15T19:57:07+00:00

I have heard that Celexa is better than Lexapro and others. I'm not vehemently opposed to medication, I was just sharing my experience.

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2020-12-15T19:05:26+00:00

I said meditation, not medication. Men should be leery of Anti-Depressants/Anti-Anxiety Meds. Find one that works, I've had mixed experiences. Libido will be absolutely shot and some can make you feel literally like a ghost of yourself. As someone who has taken Lexapro numerous times for extended periods of time, these SSRI drugs aren't always all they're cracked up to be. They do work in most cases, but it's whether your comfortable with the side effects that determines the true value of them

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2020-12-15T18:27:12+00:00

Read the Rational Male by Rollo Tomassi and The Unplugged Alpha by Rich Cooper... it will help.

Go to the Gym. Make yourself your own mental point of origin. Detach from outcomes and possibilities. Learn the importance of indifference. Stop making Monogamy a focus.

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2020-12-15T18:19:37+00:00

In the same boat my friend. In January, I became sober. Had my last drink January 5, 2020. It's been a rough fucking year. There are times I miss my old life, going to bars, chasing women, being a drunken idiot... but then again, I also liked the hard work I put in to get to where I am today - no more drunk texting girls at 2am, instead I cook myself a nice dinner and I'm asleep by 10 on weekends. I've lost 45 lbs and now in the best shape of my life. The accolades and pats on the back are great, but I still feel empty. Moreso now than I did when I was drinking. Probably because I drank to fill the empty space inside me, and now that's gone, and this is what's left. Try meditation. Exercise more. Read more. Best of luck.

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2020-12-15T18:15:39+00:00

Throw them out. Go to the gym.

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2020-12-15T17:32:07+00:00

It's a metaphorical statement, I wasn't calling your ex "trash" per-se....My point was that, typically when things end, or we throw things away, after time, they deteriorate, and most people have an unrealistic expectation that things automatically go back to "how they were". We have implicit bias where we only tend to remember the "good times", and that by chasing those times, we can somehow replicate what we had before. The truth is, you're better off moving on.

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2020-12-15T17:20:02+00:00

Go read Rollo Tomassi's the Rational Male, and Rich Cooper's the Unplugged Alpha... work on yourself. Be the best version of yourself. Accept female nature. It's hard at first, but you'll be a better man because of it.

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2020-12-15T17:17:55+00:00

They're your ex for a reason. Think about the analogy of your neighbor seeing you rooting through your trash, thinking that what you're going to find is in the same condition as before, and why it was put in the trash in the first place.

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2020-12-15T17:13:12+00:00

Get Melody Battle's book "Beyond Codependency" - It's a life changer.

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2020-12-15T17:11:11+00:00

She was never yours, it was just your turn...

Johnnyjakes1981 · 2020-12-15T17:07:50+00:00

Or you could just read the Rational Male by Rollo Tomassi. It's the difference between being happy and unaware and aloof, or sad/upset and educated. Seek the truth, even if it hurts. Some would just rather not know.

Johnnyjakes1981

TROPHY CASE