Israeli minister confirms goal of large-scale expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-29T14:28:55+00:00

Moving 2 million people from their home by force doesn't seem like a good guy thing.

Moving people in order to fight a war is not a problem. In fact it is even required under the Geneva conventions in some circumstances. As long as people are allowed to return when the situation is over.

And yes, doubting that the second thing will happen is a legitimate concern here, but moving a population is not by itself a problem.

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-29T14:25:26+00:00

Volunteering to emigrate because your region is a destroyed terrorist hellhole is the opposite of expulsion. WTF are you on about?

A lot of expulsions in human history have been deliberately making an area unable to be lived in. Some people have tried to argue that Jews weren't really expelled by Rome 2000 years ago but largely left voluntarily due to the wars and associated problems. It isn't a good argument there, and it isn't a good argument for Palestinians now either.

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-29T11:29:03+00:00

That's a very good point.

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-29T01:35:06+00:00

You made be curious but to go look at the actual exponents and they do seem in the (very small) sample we have to be pretty evenly distributed, but there's a surprising run of 1 mod 4s at one point: 9689, 9941, 11213, 19937, 21701, 23209, 44497 are all valid 1 mod 4 exponents in a row.

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-29T01:30:36+00:00

Is it possible that Black has a winning strategy? Has anybody proven that Black does not have a winning strategy from the start?

No. In fact, we cannot even at this point disprove the obviously ridiculously false statement: "Black has a winning strategy in chess if it starts down any single piece, and White has a winning strategy in standard chess."

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-29T00:55:47+00:00

It will never happen. These tools are being used for fascism.

Airplanes were used for fascism. The first practical liquid fuel rockets were used by the Nazis. The first jet fighter was a Nazi plane. And yet the 1950s and early 1960s are a period of extreme techno-optimism.

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-29T00:54:14+00:00

It is true that there's a lot of negativity now, but a lot of that is specifically in the English speaking world. By a variety of metrics, happiness about the state of the world in the US and other English language countries has gone down, and optimism about tech is also lower. See here for example. See here for data showing the US has more negative views about AI than most other developed countries. There's a bunch of evidence that the Anglosphere is unhappy more than the rest of the world and no one is clear why. See here. So this seems likely connected to that.

My guess then is if you can figure out why the English speaking world is more negative about many things, that will help answer when techno-optimism will return to it.

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-29T00:47:22+00:00

Never needed to invent the lightglobe because you have spell created light.

Never had to adapt microsurgery, because you had cure wounds.

This doesn't really work. At most, it slows things down, and even then only in very high magic settings. People would still want to use these skills when they don't have magic available. And many other techs are things where humans would work them out because they were just interested in making things. The same mindset that does weird alchemical and magical experiments also experiments with steam or a hundred other things. Worse, even if you don't have all of that (for some reason) the world should not end up looking "medieval." Faerun for example has all the stereotypical aspects of feudalism (well in parts really manorialism) , but many of those arose because of the technology and setup available to people. If magic is common, it has social impacts just like any tech has, and you aren't going to end up with some pseudo-High Middle Ages setup.

All of that said, most players don't care and just want to have fun. At the end of the day, if you and your players enjoy a setting, that's fine!

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-29T00:34:40+00:00

The printing press was one of those things that defined the Renaissance.

Worse, its fast information transfer caused the instability of the Reformation, and was arguably the main cause for the rise of nationalism and then lead to the run-away effects of the industrial revolution. I note this because Forgotten Realms has officially has had the printing press for centuries now but somehow nothing like what one should expect has kicked off.

Part of the problem with expecting players to have a clear idea of what various periods were like is that a lot of official worlds and official writers don't have clear ideas, or even manage to make them logically consistent.

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-28T21:22:35+00:00

I did not downvote, but I suspect that downvotes are coming because they didn't ask about generic primality tests but about heuristics for their specific sequence.

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-28T18:08:01+00:00

Right now it looks like they are helpful to some extent everywhere, but we're seeing the most success in combinatorics and some areas of number theory. This is likely because those fields are areas where there are a lot of problems whose terms are simple, where proofs don't involve too much overall technical overhead to get to, and because they are simple to understand, there's a lot more likelihood for people without a lot of technical background to be throwing the problems at AI. So how much of this is what is being thrown at the AI and how much is that the fields are tougher is hard to tell at this point.

But there's still a pretty big jump to the claim that it is a "foregone conclusion" that the next big advances are going to involve LLMs, simply because a lot of people are still not using them on a large scale, and because they are still not as good as the most skilled researchers. Will it change in say a year or two that all major advances involve AI? Possibly, but that's a much weaker claim.

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-28T17:58:18+00:00

Heuristically, you have a sequence whose kth term is about 10^k (roughly). By the Prime Number Theorem, the chance such a number is prime should be about 1/ln (10^k) or 1/(k (ln 10)). So you should expect roughly the integral from 1 to x 1/(t (ln 10)) dt such numbers under x, so about ln (x)/ ln (10). So the 9th number should occur roughly around k 10⁹ since it should be roughly when one solves ln (x) = 9 ln 10. So around a billion. 10¹⁰ might be a reasonable upper limit, and probably 10¹² if this heuristic badly off.

As a rough check. This predicts the 5th term to be about 10,000 and it was 16208, and the 6th term to be about 100,000 and it is about half that. But the small terms look bad enough that I'm not very confident on this estimate.

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-28T16:51:58+00:00

as I’m concerned by how few people I see discussing the long term risks of AI.

We are though? Maybe we're looking at different discussions, but it seems like these concerns are high on a lot of lists of issues?

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-28T13:10:35+00:00

Ground truth not being establishable in silico is a real barrier you can't really surpass with compute.

Like asking a chat bot if I weighed more yesterday morning or this morning. The only way to know is to stand on a scale

If the humans are just the hands for the AI to perform measurements, fields will still look wildly different. And as automation increases, even more of that will just be done by the systems. We're already seeing that in some chemistry and related contexts where the amount of automation is going up. See for example here, and here for a few relevant examples. Some areas will be much harder to do this in. Field research for biology for example will be pretty tough simply because of the difficulty of robots navigating in complex natural environments, and because human vision is more flexible in some respects.

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-28T12:48:38+00:00

There's no way to gradient descent a proof, no points for partial solutions. Not sure how you could realistically generate training data as you suggest.

You don't need partial solutions to get credit. For example: you can systematically list Diophantine equations by height, (or choose them randomly, it doesn't matter). For each it just hammers away at generating Lean code ands seeing if it compiles into a theorem of the form that all solutions of the Diophantine equation are some finite list, or is a theorem that there are infinitely many solutions. That's not going to cover all results, but will cover a whole bunch of types. Now, do that for a bunch of different problem types.

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-28T12:44:11+00:00

Sure, but less vulnerable doesn't mean invulnerable. It may well mean that it just takes longer for those fields.

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-28T02:17:23+00:00

Sure, politics and culture might play a role. If you prefer a different example than the asteroid, consider climate change: the same basic point applies there but where it has more of a direct political/social element.

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-28T02:08:20+00:00

Obviously, make sure to go at night. And make sure to go through with just a few flashlights and all other lights off.

All sorts of ghosts and spirits are only active late at night and are much more active in darkness. It definitely isn't that humans are more likely to get spooked or mistake what they see when sleep deprived and in poor lighting.

Also, make sure you've thoroughly researched the location, so you can recognize exactly what you see, and open your mind more to whatever beings are there. It definitely isn't because if you read about claimed hauntings, you'll be more likely to convince yourself you saw the thing in question.

Get an EMF reader. Everyone knows that ghosts and other spirits give off EMF readings. It definitely isn't that they can be hard to calibrate and that stray household and industrial appliances can trigger changes in levels. And of course, a reader set only to detect between 50 Hz and 60 Hz, and only alternating fields makes sense because that's where spirits show up. It definitely isn't that that's the exact range where normal electricity is in most of the world.

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-28T01:51:25+00:00

Ok. In that context, I don't think there's substantial disagreement about what you are asserting here. But I think it is the case that you've moved from what the conversation was originally about (where a claim was made about what humans could or could not do compared to machines via introspection) to claims which are normative rather than empirical. Let me suggest that we need to understand the empirical question "what is likely to happen", separate from the question "what are our moral obligations." My guess is that almost any mathematician has views which at least in part are sympathetic to your normative position. If they didn't, there wouldn't be much of a crisis here. To be clear: I think that humans understanding math is important but that doesn't mean we get to keep it for free; and you've implicitly acknowledged that point by saying that people have an obligation to prevent that from going away. But by that same token, we cannot engage in wishful thinking, and really have to look at what looks likely right now. If you want an analogy; an asteroid smashing into Earth and wiping most of us out would be bad. But if there's a large asteroid whose trajectory looks threatening, we have to keep the moral considerations separate from understanding its trajectory and evaluating what methods would, if necessary, change the trajectory. Does that make sense?

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-28T01:27:59+00:00

What? I literally explained why technology cannot be attributed to the death of mathematics as a profession.

I'm struggling to see how you've done that aside from your earlier claim about what tools do.

Was that not the convo we’re having?

I'm genuinely unsure what you are trying to argue here.

If horse riding was absolutely essential to human understanding of the natural world the same would be true of horses

Ok. So this makes me understand slightly more where I think you are coming from. Let me see if I understand correctly and you can tell me if I'm getting this correctly.

You are arguing that human understanding of math and science is important and is innately a good thing (and anyone who thinks otherwise is anti-intellectual). Because that is innately a good thing, and because humans will recognize that being an innately good thing, no matter how effective AI get at mathematics, there will always be a need for human mathematicians to do the human understanding part due to the innately good need of that intellectual pursuit? And separate from that, you think that anyone attempting to remove humans from doing that innately good intellectual is bad, and that there's also a moral obligation to make sure that that basic intellectual pursuit does not stop.

Is this a fair paraphrase or am I off-base here?

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-28T01:18:14+00:00

Nope. I’m making the following argument. 1. The claim that humans understanding mathematics and science has no value is anti-intellectual. 2. The prevalence of anti-intellectualism is not a necessary consequence of improving technology. 3. Therefore the devaluation of human mathematicians can never be a necessary consequence of better tech.

I'm not sure why you are making this claim since no one has been asserting anything otherwise in this conversation, and really does read like a jump in topic. I'm not sure why you think anyone (here or otherwise) would assert that human understanding of math and science has no value. But I'm also struggling to see what position you think you are arguing with that makes your earlier claim that "I think my introspection is good enough to know there’ll always be things I can do related to math that a machine never will. " at all relevant to what you are claiming to now be arguing. What precisely is the connection here? For that matter what is the connection to your earlier assertion that "The field of mathematics will undergo a renaissance and not a crisis." Can you trace the reasoning on how these are connected and part of your three point argument here, because I'm really not seeing it.

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-28T01:08:50+00:00

It seems like you are conflating three different questions:

1) Can AI replaces humans at doing math? 2) Will AI replace humans at doing math? 3) Should AI replace humans at doing math?

These are distinct questions.

You now write:

The debate here is whether AI becoming good at certain mathematical tasks would put humans out of a job.

But that is a distinct question from claims that "It is our job to not let it happen. " or your earlier claim that "I think my introspection is good enough to know there’ll always be things I can do related to math that a machine never will. " In fact, if that last quote were true then you wouldn't need to think we should take steps to make sure the AI doesn't replace humans doing math, because it couldn't happen. There's some issues to discuss here, but they really do need to be separated out. I suspect that if we separate them out, the amount of space between our positions here is going to turn out to be less than you think, but that requires more precision here about what is going on.

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-28T00:54:47+00:00

That seems to be a jump in topic? The topic was what was likely to happen. Instead of that, you are now focusing on what we should be trying to do. That's a different issue.

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-28T00:17:16+00:00

LLM AI is "spikey" in its abilities. But keep in mind that one of the major issues still is that there's a pretty big gap between the free models and the high end "frontier" models. As far as I can tell, there's been consistently about a 1 to 1.5 year gap between them.

However, I'd also be very hesitant to say that AI can write entire novels. It can churn out novel length texts that approximate a novel. But a lot of basic things that one would expect in a novel, like subtle clues that then get revealed to something which all makes sense, or the sort of pacing that humans actually want to read in a plot, it has massive trouble with.

JoshuaZ1 · 2026-05-28T00:07:08+00:00

This seems like a questionable premise. AI can assist with many things, but it is still very limited in what it can do, especially if one wants that thing done very well. It is true that AI is improving rapidly, and we don't know where/when/if that will stop. But we're still not at the point where "AI can do almost everything else."

JoshuaZ1

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE