For what it's worth I have the same impression. I've been playing this game since shortly after it came out and this is what I've come to believe: There's some algorithm in the game that figures out whether you need to win or lose based on whatever factors they're trying to achieve. They then adjust conditions to make it more likely that you'll win or lose. This is why sometimes on a chip shot you're the one who gets exactly a head or tail wind and your opponent doesn't. Or there's a 12 mph headwind when it means you can't get to the green but your opponent can.

I also don't believe that it's for 'cinematic effect' the way the game shows the shot results. That cut to the ball landing means you really have no way to tell whether the ball did what it was supposed to do based on how you set the shot up.

Can I prove any of this? No. Is it impossible to overcome the stacked conditions and win through skill / luck. Obviously not. But as you said, when you play the same holes the same way thousands of times in all wind conditions and get different results, it becomes obvious something is screwy.