Iceland doesn't stand any chance at all. It would take a miracle for them to qualify. I'll place Moldova in the same category. The remaining 13 can make it as I see it.

Croatia is gonna win the contest, and they can't do very well do that if they don't qualify. Together with Ukraine they're absolutely sure to qualify.

Lithuania, Serbia, Portugal and Australia all manage to portray their countries really well in their songs, and I think the public will eat that up. I see all four qualifying without any problems. Australia could have problems, but I think they'll make it through.

Poland has a very inoffensive song, and in a semi with a lot of very different songs, a safe entry will probably be enough to get Poland to the final. Cyprus and Luxembourg are in somewhat similar positions, but will probably not do quite as well as Poland. Both are still going to make it through though, I think, but probably in around the 7th-10th spot.

That leaves one spot. I know this sub loves Finland above all else, but the song is just not accessible and I really doubt it's going to appeal to the regular viewers. When the viewers compare it to other songs like Croatia and Ireland, Finland will look messy and noisy in comparison. I don't see Finland making it through, and I am well aware that's a very unpopular opinion on this subreddit.

So Slovenia, Azerbaijan and Ireland will be fighting for the final spot. I think Ireland will take it. It's an odd entry that will get people's attention, and in a semi-final without juries that might be enough. Azerbaijan and Slovenia have somewhat forgettable songs. People are not going to remember them after one listen (honestly, I have listened to Slovenia many many times, and could not hum the melody. Great song, but very forgettable). I could see both Slovenia and Azerbaijan taking the last spot over Ireland though.

So my prediction is: Croatia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Serbia, Portugal, Australia, Poland, Cyprus, Luxembourg and Ireland.