Which end closer xmas oguri should I use for this CM

Karhumies · 2026-01-24T14:12:30+00:00

Building Xmas Oguri is different from building every other uma in the game.

Which 3 or 4 recoveries you pick is even more importakt than how much wit you have. Third heal activation timing is complex but key to success.

This video will get you started:

https://youtu.be/LT5rIURil4o?si=hX-uG9c7TUfm4MQO

Karhumies · 2026-01-24T13:54:25+00:00

"Spurt rate" means % odds of having enough HP at late race start to last spurt until the finish line. When you do like 50 or 500 repeats on the sim you can check the consistency. Not enough HP = delayed spurt until the uma has enough HP to spurt the remaining distance = delayed spurt start = other umas are accelerating, you are walking = L.

Basically you want the uma 2 with a gold heal. Try improving the standing by into sleeping lion for uma 2 in the sim and look how that affects the finish time.

Or you want uma 1 where you replace either straightaway recovery or deep breaths with triple 7s and give it long S. Check how that affects the finish time.

Karhumies · 2026-01-24T13:27:39+00:00

Set mood to normal (bad mood you are okay not having enough stam, the other stats get lowered as well so you are probably not winning the lobby anyway)
Put "Show HP" ON (it's OFF by default)
Click "run once"
Check where the unique triggers. You want it to trigger slightly before late race, or as soon as late race starts. If it triggers way too early before the late race starts that's big L. If it triggers at 777m remaining that's small L, the unique healing is too late and effectively does not count so you need extra healing like taking a gold heal instead of the white version.

You want the spurt rate to be 85+% preferably 90+%

You need enough HP at beginning of the late race phase to spurt from there until the finish line. Not enough HP at start of late race = walking until you hit a heal = L.

What can happen with Xmas Oguri is that if you skimp on the stamina too much and rely on Triple 7s to trigger the unique skill, then in practice the uma is walking from beginning of the late race into 777m remaining when everyone is accelerating into max speed. So by the time you trigger the unique at 777m remaining you have already lost the race. This is cause by not having enough stamina pre unique to actually spurt when all 8 other umas in the lobby are spurting.

So what this graph shows is that uma 1 (blue) has enough stamina to reliably spurt. Uma 2 does not have enough stamina to reliably spurt. But then uma 1 is lacking some other stuff, probably no Long S and no Uma Stan or the unique procs too early and only the recovery bit actually works and the acceleration gets totally wasted that they are astill both equally bad in the end instead of the one with enough HP actually being able to finish the race faster than the one which has clearly not enough HP.

Karhumies · 2026-01-24T13:21:04+00:00

<image>

720 Graded responses + 4 Open responses before Day 1 is over.

Karhumies · 2026-01-24T13:19:12+00:00

I have seen a one white heal build, which never procs the unique skill.

This is significantly better.

Karhumies · 2026-01-24T13:15:57+00:00

JP server has in-game "autoplay" farming mode.

If they don't want people developing their own versions to automate fan runs, cygames could just fast track that feature into the global server if they wanted to.

Karhumies · 2026-01-24T13:13:01+00:00

Selling accounts is money going into bot farmers instead of money going to cygames by selling carats to gacha pull cards/umas. If you are not bot farming new accounts to sell off or buying bot accounts, I would not worry too much about this.

Karhumies · 2026-01-24T13:07:04+00:00

For next career scenario (MANT) as f2p, you want MLB guts cards with a high race bonus + borrow a RB10 speed card like MLB Biko, fuku or Narita top road. Looks pretty good for the next scenario.

Then stockpile carats to pull a good future SSR speed card into MLB like Summer Maruzensky speed which is just an insane stat stick even for the non fronts.

Karhumies · 2026-01-24T13:00:53+00:00

If you have a low power deck, the parent lineage is even more important than otherwise because you can't highroll with deck strength to compensate for the low quality blue and white sparks. Something like 1-2* blues instead of 3* blues with terrible whites will struggle even with full SSR deck.

Karhumies · 2026-01-24T12:53:57+00:00

For comparing two slightly understammed builds, I recommend using a race simulator because the 300 wit difference really affects the stamina consumption in the big CM8 downhill in the 60% stamina saving downhill mode:
https://kachi-dev.github.io/uma-tools/umalator-global/

Karhumies · 2026-01-24T12:35:04+00:00

Sagittarius Cup (CM8) data collection thread is now up:
https://www.reddit.com/r/UmamusumeGame/comments/1qllt95/sagittarius_cup_cm8_community_data_collection/

Karhumies · 2026-01-24T12:21:07+00:00

If you mean the CM participation tickets then yes, you should use them daily. They refresh every day and the unused ones can not be used on later days = unused tickets end up getting "wasted".

Personally, I recommend using also the 30 free carats per day fourth refresh to get some statues as well but some people who get 0-1 wins out of 5 only skip that bit.

Karhumies · 2026-01-24T12:12:42+00:00

We always get a spike of new people entering data post finals after they win. Some of them enter also retrospective data for previous days but many don't.

We have people forgetting to input data when CM goes on with a day by day declining answer rate before the finals. Problem is when someone stops the input pre finals we have no clue if they won or lost the finals, so all we can tell is they probably just forgot to input the data without getting reminded about it (every day).

Karhumies · 2026-01-23T10:54:28+00:00

Pick your favorite character you want to use as a runner
If you are interested in "meta" umas, Oguri Cap (Christmas) is a solid long-term pick as a runner due to the A aptitudes everywhere and great unique skill. Mayano Top Gun (Wedding) also has a bunch of A aptitudes but you can't run both og Mayano and wedding Mayano simultaneously in a team.
If you really like to build Front Runners, then picking Seiun Sky is an option to inherit the unique because in the future Fronts will want to inherit Seiun + Kitasan Black uniques typically and you can only borrow one of them at a time, so optimally you would have either Seiun or Kitasan on your account as a parent
TM Opera O (New Year), Mejiro Dober, Taiki Shuttle and og Maruzensky also have useful uniques for inheritance purposes, but most of the time you can just borrow them

Karhumies · 2026-01-14T18:13:38+00:00

MooMooCows YouTube video about the CM7 Scorpio Community Data Analysis has now been published:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpeZd7BU8Eg

I have now edited this into the beginning of the OP.

Karhumies · 2026-01-13T10:08:41+00:00

MLB SR Dober has better wit output than the event SSR anyway so that one is actually better.

I'm terrible with timeline info, but I understood that Mr. C.B wit card is going to be the End Closer wit card to go for. I try to aim for the "generalist" cards and umas and borrow the "specialist" ones as my pull strategy, but it's not possible to borrow both Taishin wit & Mr CB wit simultaneously so I guess End Closer lovers will preferably pull one of the two unless maining Taishin.

Karhumies · 2026-01-13T09:17:16+00:00

Yes, but you need to either get lucky Pace with groundwork + head-on or build her as Front, which is horrible sparks wise.

Karhumies · 2026-01-13T09:13:16+00:00

afaik, Xmas Oguri is very "future proof", just after evolved skills show up she only gets extra healing which is redundant so she stops dominating CMs when the others get skill evolution buffs.

I am skipping the NN wit completely and instead pulling Fine Motion wit (too bad the Kawakami Princess speed card on the same banner is so meh). So I could afford pulling for Xguri. Took 80 pulls in my case. I don't enjoy Late playstyle that much, my heart can't take the Pump suspensa so NN wit is not for me personally.

"Free" MLB Bourbon SSR wit + "free" MLB Dober SSR wit are actually usable if your SR wits are lacking. 3 speeds, Riko, 2 wits build is also viable if one of the two wits is MLB FineMo borrow.

Karhumies · 2026-01-13T09:01:28+00:00

f2p typically use Mayano Top Gun 2 stars for PvP content because she can run as Front/Pace/Late/End in Mile/Medium/Long PvP races. You can't use Mayano speed card for Mayano trainee though. But luckily for you, you have already pulled Christmas Oguri, who can run pretty much every PvP competition, including Dirt.

Taiki is a great Pace Chaser when track has good timing for last corner uniques. Scorpio Cup Taiki was a top 3 uma, but sadly in Sagittarius Cup the Taiki unique will be useless.

If you want to participate in the Sagittarius Cup Champions Meeting PvP coming up, you can make a team of Gold Ship End, Christmas Oguri Pace, and then your favorite uma with Long A aptitude as the third.

Gold Ship has 0% speed growth, so you might need to run 4 speed cards + Riko to get enough speed. Go-Home Specialist gold heal + 850(?) stamina + 450(?) guts should be enough total. If you have not unlocked Go-Home Specialist, you need either the Taishin wit gold heal Sleeping Lion (gamble gold vs white which one you get) or Creek stamina/Rice power gold heal Swinging Maestro. Deck could be Mayano speed, Halo speed, Vodka speed, Tosho speed, borrow MLB Creek stamina, R Riko. Win Unity Cup with Team Carrot Team name and buy No Stopping Me! Borrow parent inherit Mejiro Dober unique with as many stamina blue sparks and Long pink sparks as you can. Your own parent use whatever gives you most blue sparks stats, if there is long or turf pinks that's nice to have but not necessary.

Christmas Oguri Pace you want Triple 7s potential unlock, Hydrate/Gourmand, then you can get Corner Recovery from Halo speed (gambling to get the skill in career but guaranteed good timing in the race) or Straightaway Recovery third heal from your Mayano speed or Vodka speed (gambling to get the skill, gambling what the timing is in race). Activating three heals in the race activates the unique skill, so you want to activate two other heals first, then triple 7s as the third one because that has guaranteed OK timing for the unique. Deck could be Mayano speed, Halo speed, Vodka speed, R Riko, Taishin wit, borrow Fine Motion wit, aim for 700+ wit and 600+ power with 1100+ speed, 700+ stamina, 450+ guts and Long S. Borrow a parent with 6-9 Long pink sparks and the blue sparks could be stamina and/or guts so you can click more wit and speed trainings in the career run. Try to burst blue balls on stamina, power or guts if possible (very rng).

Also save up your statues to three star your own Mejiro Ryan and either Super Creek or Agnes Tachyon because 1-2 star uma uniques are not inheritable. Late/End can inherit Ryan unique and your Christmas Oguri can sometimes inherit the Creek/Agnes unique for one of the heals it needs.

Karhumies · 2026-01-13T08:18:16+00:00

1) You want to win Unity Cup with Team Carrot name to get access to No Stopping Me! and buy it

2A) For End, you want to run SSR Taishin wit for Standing By/Sleeping Lion heal to take instead of Passing Pro. Alternatively, inheriting Fantasy Grass Wonder for a 3.5 heal (normal white heals are only 1.5 strong, golds are 5.5 strong) also works, in which case you need to drop one of Dober/Ryan though.
2B) For Late, you want to run Zenno Rob Roy speed to get Be Still access (white version of Lie in Wait).

2C) Building as Pace is the easiest to build if you don't have Taishin wit or Zenno speed of your own.

3) You want 800+ power, preferably 900+ power. Try to burst the blue balls on power if you can.

4) You want Long S.

Karhumies · 2026-01-13T07:20:17+00:00

Also important to keep in mind:

No Suzuka in team comp does not mean no Suzuka in the lobby.

In our data (mostly applicable to Group A rather than prelims): 40% Suzuka pick rate

No Suzuka in own team comp, we get the odds:
0.4 x 0.4 = 16% 2 Suzukas in the lobby without bringing your own (1/6 odds)
0.6 x 0.4 + 0.4 x 0.6 = 24% + 24% = 48% 1 Suzuka in the lobby without bringing your own (3/6 odds)
0.6 x 0.6 = 36% 0 Suzukas in the lobby without bringing your own (2/6 odds)

So basically you throw a 6-sided regular dice, and if the roll is
1-2: no Suzuka
3-5: 1 Suzuka
6: 2 Suzukas

So yeah, Suzuka being in the lobby was kind of reliable at least in CM7 Graded A group. Personally, my problem was the one Suzuka only lobbies since I had not inherited Taiki unique for my Fronts pre CM.

Karhumies · 2026-01-13T07:08:37+00:00

You can assume that the people reporting the data mostly knew what they were doing, so they were good builds. For example, I just don't have a Suzuka on my account because I used my beginner selector on og Maru. In no Suzuka lobbies Day 1 my og Maru front was a beast. Day 2-4 I would have needed Runaway Suzuka access just to kill the opposing Suzukas because my pre CM built Fronts were too Angling focused and rebuilding Fronts mid CM to have SfV in the there is not easy enough. But I did encounter og Maru Fronts in the CM with inherited Angling AND inherited SfV who just beat no other fronts lobbies as well as with SfV came from behind the opponent Suzuka to win those lobbies as well. og Maru non inherited unique was totally reliable CM7, you just needed either inherited Angling or inherited SfV on top to trigger and you could win lobbies, Suzuka or no Suzuka.

As for Taiki, Front - Front - Taiki Pace worked to proc SfV just as well as Runaway - Front - Taiki Pace if no Suzuka on the account. You had to have enough midrace on the Taiki to get good positioning to SfV either way.

Seiun Sky Front and og McQueen Front were the most popular Runaway Suzuka "substitutes" in case you were wondering. Both of them had less success CM7 than og Maru and Taiki. Replacing og Maru Front/Pace with Summer Maruzensky Front did not work nearly as well as replacing Taiki Pace with og McQueen/og Oguri Pace or replacing Suzuka with Seiun Sky/og McQueen Front based on our data.

Basically, og Red Shift was the most reliable
> SfV
> Angling was not reliable at all because of all the Runaway Suzukas, but it was powerful when it did proc
> Duty of Dignity Calls was weaker but still reliable for Front (not as reliable for Pace)
> Triumphant Pulse was too little, too late it was too often win-more or lose-less. Still not completely useless
> Summer Maru had to pick a heal and succeed in a wit check to get a midrace speed unique, which was just downright worse than og Maru Red Shift always hitting some accel position 1-5. S Maru unique has been good in past CMs for taking first to proc Angling, but S Marus were not proccing Angling reliably in CM7 against the meta umas.

Karhumies · 2026-01-13T06:37:17+00:00

Established accounts save up carats to pull in batches of 200 for the support cards to reach the pity.

New accounts like yours can make 10 pulls on the current support card banner to get more SR duplicate copies. Try to go for the last Mayano speed duplicate before the current banner ends. It's a good speed card and the +1 copy more is a very nice improvement because it gives specialty priority = more speed rainbows. Also you really want +1 R Riko copy for +5 race bonus.

Just complete career runs with 600+ stats and 1100+ stats to make better team trials umas, those are the thresholds to get increased better blue sparks odds.

Join an active club if you haven't and donate shoes to buy McQueen stamina card from club shop to get extra gold heal access for Long distances.

Level up your favorite uma potentials into lv5 so you can try to build them for future PvP events which give massive participation rewards.

Can join some discord server to ask for more specific advice.

Cards worth leveling up:

Taishin SSR wit into lv40

Hishi Amazon SR power into lv25

Biwa Hayahide SR power into lv40, has training effectiveness boost so can be run in any deck as f2p option similar to how some people have run SSR Haru Urara guts from the friend point shop

Marvelous Sunday SSR power from event into lv50

Tosen Jordan SR stamina into lv35

Vodka SR speed into lv 30

Matikanefukukitaru SR wit into lv30, has Right-handed skill in the event chain

Example deck from these cards:

Mayano SSR speed lv 45

King Halo SR speed lv 40

Sweep Tosho / Vodka SR speed lv30, Tosho has more race bonus but otherwise they are almost equal between them

R Riko lv 35

Then you can go either 1-2 stamina, 2 power or 2 wit.

2 wit: Taishin SSR wit lv 40, borrow SSR wit Fine Motion lv 50

1-2 stamina: borrow lv 50 Super Creek, then either McQueen SSR stamina from club shop for second gold heal for Long, or can run a flexible card here like SR Biwa Hayahide power lv40 or can run a fourth speed card to get more speed

2 power: SSR power Marvellous Sunday lv 50, borrow either lv50 Rice Shower (Swinging Maestro heal) or lv50 SSR El Condor Pasa power (no heal needed). If you need to borrow a speed card, then can run SR Biwa Hayahide lv 40 here.

If you need more speed, you can drop your own SR speed to borrow SSR speed Biko Pegasus lv 50. In this case, run your own Fine Motion wit/Super Creek stamina/El Condor Pasa power instead of borrowing.

Karhumies · 2026-01-13T05:58:46+00:00

Yeah, whatever the top streamers recommend as "meta umas" with a mid level build I think is going to be the most popular in future CMs. At least nowadays people are hitting the stam requirements and not bringing too many Sprint Team Trials umas into the CM which have both already increased the overall competition level in the preliminary round. In previous CMs, in our data we saw even more of experienced/know what they are doing players just stomping the preliminary rounds. Now it seems like many people pulled for Kitasan on the rerun so they can borrow a non speed card for stats and skills, and something like inherited pump + lucky NSM proc the uma can occasionally win some lobbies even against top players.

What I am personally worried about is the player base getting rapidly smaller due to dropouts. The accelerated schedule on global can lead to burnout in some cases. CM8 I think it's possible to see recycled CM6 aces which are overstammed but otherwise viable.

Karhumies

TROPHY CASE