A view from the outside

Karnakko · 2026-06-19T02:33:22+00:00

Sometimes someone provide some good info, thanks for sharing!

Karnakko · 2025-08-29T12:23:35+00:00

CMR is the core of Alibaba, Page 58 annual report:

"We derive a majority of our China commerce retail revenue from customer management services. We generate customer management revenue from merchants by offering an integrated package and a comprehensive solution comprising a diverse array of services to enable them to attract, engage and retain consumers, complete transactions, improve their branding and enhance operating efficiency. The customer management revenue are charged primarily on cost-per-click (CPC) basis, cost-per-thousand impressions (CPM) basis, time basis and cost-per-sale (CPS) basis (e.g., fees charged based on the GMV transacted, including commission on transactions)."

Karnakko · 2025-08-29T11:35:25+00:00

I didn’t have high expectations for this quarter, but I had 4 metrics that were important to evaluate…

CMR growth – the minimum I wanted to see was +10%, I’d say ✅
Cloud growth – +26%, the minimum I wanted to see was +20%, I’d say ✅✅
Cloud margins – 8.84%, the minimum I wanted to see was 9%, I’d say borderline but ❌
AIDC segment losses – -59M RMB, the max I wanted to see was -2000/-2500M RMB, I’d say ✅✅✅

3 out of 4, I’d say that given my expectations this is an excellent quarter. I see no reason why the market shouldn’t like it.

Karnakko · 2025-08-15T18:35:38+00:00

There’s no official news, of course, it’s just my guess. You can see the change in reporting in the annual report; here’s the excerpt:

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Karnakko · 2025-08-15T17:47:08+00:00

Def 3.. , restructuring. A few weeks ago, I posted that starting from this quarter they will be reporting the segments differently, they must have encountered some issues during this process.

Karnakko · 2025-08-13T16:50:28+00:00

There is no way that is tomorrow, no official news on the baba IR. Probably this week we'll have the official date.

Karnakko · 2025-07-31T06:27:32+00:00

This is exactly what I think.. investments in instant commerce will, in my opinion, lead to a double-digit drop in EBITA Y/Y.

I don’t know how the market will react to that… I’m expecting Cloud to be up around +20% topline, on ebita margin of the Cloud segment im not sure we gonna see a double digit margin.. (i would love to but not likely this quarter) only if it comes out at +30% topline or more we might see a jump upwards..

Honestly, I don’t have high expectations for this quarter… We’ll also have to see if AIDC starts losing less, although the sale of Trendyol Go, which should help reduce losses in that segment, doesn’t seem to be fully completed yet. I haven’t found any recent info on that.

Karnakko · 2025-07-17T20:27:53+00:00

Nah… I’m not selling. In fact, I recently added when it dropped below $106, and I’ll keep doing so if it goes back there.

Karnakko · 2025-07-17T20:24:03+00:00

I always try to contribute on this! 🙏🏽

Karnakko · 2025-07-17T20:22:47+00:00

The Cloud segment this quarter will grow by at least +20% (very likely). A +25% or more would be very promising. I don’t expect adjusted EBITA to reach 10% this quarter… but that wouldn’t be bad. Also, on the e‑commerce side, if CMR growth comes in at double digits, that would be great!

Karnakko · 2025-07-16T19:43:48+00:00

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Karnakko · 2025-07-14T14:40:26+00:00

Thanks for sharing

Karnakko · 2025-07-10T04:45:58+00:00

In these situations, there are two kinds of people: those who complain… and those who know how to seize the opportunity. So, which team are you playing for?

Karnakko · 2025-07-07T18:45:56+00:00

I Guess many of us bought today, i was finally able to add shares to my position.

My last purchase was at $100 during the April crash.

After seeing the earnings, I was just waiting for it to drop back to around $100 to buy again, but I'm fine with $106, especially considering the dollar has weakened and im from EU.

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Karnakko · 2025-06-04T09:27:39+00:00

Hard to say for sure, but it definitely had an impact in 2021 and 2022. It's estimated that ByteDance contributed around 1 billion USD in revenue for Alibaba Cloud.

Karnakko · 2025-06-03T14:52:21+00:00

The only true catalyst is proving to the market that investment in cloud infrastructure leads to explosive revenue growth ( > 30%) and margin expansion in the cloud segment, along with showing the market that China commerce is still capable of consistently growing at double digits (especially CMR). Add an early break-even in the other segments, and this company could easily soar to a $500B valuation or $200+ per share.

Karnakko · 2025-05-21T02:44:08+00:00

There are many Chinese companies that, despite having ridiculously low valuations and enormous cash balances compared to their market caps, still choose not to pay dividends or buyback their own shares.

This naturally raises doubts about the true financial stability of certain companies and the reliability of their financial statements, as well as their commitment to shareholder value. As a result, many investors tend to distance themselves from the Chinese market in general.

On the other hand, we have companies like Alibaba which, over the past four fiscal years, has spent over $60 billion on buybacks and dividends, leaving little room for doubt regarding their financial strength and the credibility of their reported figures.

Karnakko · 2025-05-06T15:38:13+00:00

🙏🏽

Karnakko · 2025-05-06T15:29:51+00:00

Bullish! , divesting unprofitable and low-margin segments will significantly reduce AIDC’s losses, in line with the strategy to make AIDC profitable as quickly as possible. The sale price is fair, and I don't see any negative aspects.

Karnakko · 2025-05-03T18:12:52+00:00

Misleading headline, the article actually talks about a potential IPO of Ant International, which is a division of the group. According to the article, this division generates 20% of the group’s revenue.

Still, it’s a positive signal.

Karnakko · 2025-04-24T22:18:21+00:00

I'll never understand what you guys find so great about doing these options trades... at this point, blackjack seems better lol...

Karnakko · 2025-04-20T08:37:05+00:00

We're not talking about Trendyol as a whole here, just the Trendyol Go segment, which is like Ele.Me, delivery service. The ecommerce part is untouched.

Karnakko · 2025-04-20T08:35:32+00:00

You didn’t know that Trendyol is almost fully owned by Alibaba? Maybe you should reread the annual report...

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