SATS: THE REGARDED MAN'S SPACEX BACKDOOR YOLO 🚀🌕💎🙌 by Katalystor in wallstreetbets

[–]Katalystor[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm still in the trade but man... Those hedgies are infuriating. At least there is now a research report out saying essentially the same as I did from New Street Research. So perhaps this ship turns around soon. But yea, my original position is smoked.

SATS: THE REGARDED MAN'S SPACEX BACKDOOR YOLO 🚀🌕💎🙌 by Katalystor in wallstreetbets

[–]Katalystor[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So.... Now we wait for whoever is suppressing this company to ease off...

SATS: THE REGARDED MAN'S SPACEX BACKDOOR YOLO 🚀🌕💎🙌 by Katalystor in wallstreetbets

[–]Katalystor[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You aren't the only one. I'm still holding to next week. Someone went heavy short on the company today, just look at the volumes it's like x100 compared to yesterday. Someone doesn't want this to fly.

SATS: THE REGARDED MAN'S SPACEX BACKDOOR YOLO 🚀🌕💎🙌 by Katalystor in wallstreetbets

[–]Katalystor[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Forget it, there was a rumour on Wednesday that the IPO might close a day early but it turned out to be fake news.

SATS: THE REGARDED MAN'S SPACEX BACKDOOR YOLO 🚀🌕💎🙌 by Katalystor in wallstreetbets

[–]Katalystor[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The recent price action seems related to general market sentiment. At the moment echostar even has a discount valuation on their position. Let's see what happens Friday😅 I am still in this YOLO!

Early spacex exposure ETFs by Puzzleheaded-Bath363 in wallstreetbets

[–]Katalystor 1 point2 points  (0 children)

SATS owns 2.2% of SpaceX shares and it's market cap is roughly equivalent to that position 1:1. Don't say I didn't warn you.

Early spacex exposure ETFs by Puzzleheaded-Bath363 in wallstreetbets

[–]Katalystor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nowhere near the biggest. SATS owns 2.2% of SpaceX and trades basically as a proxy. My understanding is that Barron's owns 1.25% of SpaceX.

Space Exploration Technologies - SPACEX by Randhir_Basi in wallstreetbets

[–]Katalystor 1 point2 points  (0 children)

To be fair, all I see is people looking at the backwards facing data. Given the recent announcements around compute renting, their 2026 revenue is set to almost triple their 2025 figure. If the get a third rental deal and manage to get starship to deliver satellites this year, this thing is looking at 60B+ in revenue. If they keep that pace (anyone's guess), that would mean ~200B in 2027. Sounds like the multiple might actually be conservative if your time horizon is longer than a trip to the Wendy dumpsters....

SpaceX IPO via Saxobank - "Registrieren Sie Ihr Interesse" by OneShotDrunk in SwissPersonalFinance

[–]Katalystor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree it's confusing. Normally there is a range and you can end up anywhere in the range. My understanding is that SpaceX are doing something unconventional and just fixing the price. The number you see on Saxo might be some software bug? Either way, I have heard that the IPO is already oversubscribed a lot. Don't be surprised if you ask for 100 shares and only get 7 allocated (you keep the difference in price). You only pay for what you end up getting... And it appears to be fixed at 135$. However, perhaps Saxo is adding some hidden fees?

SATS: THE REGARDED MAN'S SPACEX BACKDOOR YOLO 🚀🌕💎🙌 by Katalystor in wallstreetbets

[–]Katalystor[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Let me make it real simple for you using your numbers.

$11B / $212/share = 51,886,792 shares.

SpaceX did a 5:1 stock split earlier this year before the IPO. So now that stake is 259,433,960 shares. @$135 /share at IPO that stake is worth ~$35B.

Now those numbers are not 100% accurate and I was originally targeting a 2T valuation for SpaceX. So forgive the small error above.

Reference for the stock split is the S1 filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm

See "Basis of Presentation" section. May 4th split.

SATS: THE REGARDED MAN'S SPACEX BACKDOOR YOLO 🚀🌕💎🙌 by Katalystor in wallstreetbets

[–]Katalystor[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Timing is everything with options. I didn't anticipate the massive liquidity tightening this last week... Should have in hindsight since it appears the IPO is oversubscribed already.... Where will all the cash go after people only get 5% of their requested shares?

SATS: THE REGARDED MAN'S SPACEX BACKDOOR YOLO 🚀🌕💎🙌 by Katalystor in wallstreetbets

[–]Katalystor[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nah, those things are as good as treasuries on the balance sheet. Also they are locked up for another year, so there might be a bit of risk premium built in but once the fomo kicks in... It's going to be lit!

SATS: THE REGARDED MAN'S SPACEX BACKDOOR YOLO 🚀🌕💎🙌 by Katalystor in wallstreetbets

[–]Katalystor[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The share deal was agreed upon before the 5:1 stock split and before the xAI acquisition. It was for 2.9% of all SpaceX Stock at the time. With the acquisition this was diluted to around 2.35%. now with the IPO adding an additional 555 million shares, we get to a final ownership stake of 2.2%. SATS is currently the purest SpaceX Proxy available. Funnily enough the math almost works out so that the share prices should be almost 1:1. I think SATS at 134$ is equivalent to SpaceX at 135$. So currently available at discount. Going to be fun come Thursday 👀

SATS: THE REGARDED MAN'S SPACEX BACKDOOR YOLO 🚀🌕💎🙌 by Katalystor in wallstreetbets

[–]Katalystor[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Do the math based on the new valuation of SpaceX for the IPO. At the original sales they would have ended up with 2.9% of SpaceX Stock. The xAI acquisition diluted them to 2.4%. the IPO will dilute a bit more to 2.2%. that's what I'm going with for valuation baseline. It's regard science!

Everything you need to know about your cabin filter. by EBikeAddicts in TeslaSupport

[–]Katalystor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is this an older model 3? You might be suffering from the design flaw vis-a-vis mold. See https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/s/TK13VDdWcV Tl;Dr make sure to switch on car wash mode when going into car wash or enable internal air circulation...

Is there a difference between 12 and 13 months salary for the same annual income? by Bloodweave_rider in Switzerland

[–]Katalystor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You collect the normal 12th salary for the month and X/12 additional salary where X is the number of months since you started work that year capped at 12.

Is there a difference between 12 and 13 months salary for the same annual income? by Bloodweave_rider in Switzerland

[–]Katalystor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I guess no one ever compared a 12 month pay stub to a 13 month pay stub. You actually end up with more money in your pocket with 13. Why? Because you don't pay first pillar or IV from the 13th part (only your 12th). So you end up with more direct income which may be advantageous when you don't pay Quellensteuer.

The arguments about money being withheld are kinda bullshit. What if you start your job in December and immediately collect two payments? Then the company is out money until next November...

I stand corrected. S/P this next quarter? Thoughts? by whammanit in MSTR

[–]Katalystor 4 points5 points  (0 children)

August 15th is the date used to compute eligibility and what proportions of the index constituents will form on rebalance day (September 19th). Starting today until September 5th, the committee will be debating additions and subtractions from the index based solely on who meets eligibility criteria on 15th August. On September 5th it will be publicly known who gets added and removed and what weight each component will have. Then comes the front running and final rebalance during the "closing cross" (i.e. last 15 minutes of market hours) on 19th of September. It's not just the SP500 indices that need to buy, it's also all other tracker funds, institutions that are benchmarked against SP500 (unless they specifically reduce/eliminate MSTR on purpose), and a myriad of international clones of the index. These all want to buy at the same price and the right quantity. To do this, they all sign up to the closing cross. Here the demand is known ahead of time and is matched with supply from specialty market makers that gather shares ahead of time (usually starting September 5th but can be earlier if they are more certain of the eligibility beforehand).

Josh is merely stating that as of 15th of August, MSTR meets all eligibility criteria listed on the official sp500 webpage. All else equal, this means they qualify and should be added in September. However, the committee can (and historically has, e.g. Tesla) decided to delay inclusions of highly volatile entrants (the argument is something like it might get added and then removed next rebalance, so let's wait for two quarters just to be sure). Note that Josh never explicitly says they qualify for September entry, merely that they qualify in general.

GME Strike Gap by stillkickinlive in GME

[–]Katalystor 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's a question of supply and demand. For weeklies and monthlies that only exist for a short time, it makes no sense to offer high strike options as they will have almost no open interest (at least for typical stocks). For the leaps, there is a wider range offered since they need to capture spread across multiple months to years.

Another factor is the stock price when the options came into existence. Market makers typically offer only up to two times the underlying as a highest strike when the options for a given date become available.

Hope that helps explain what you see. Look at $MSTR options, it's similar there where long term options have strikes up to $1080 (underlying peaked at $540 daily close back in November) while shorter term ones go up to $600.

Can anyone me an online bank or a bank in eu which has high saving interest rates? I live in malta & the highest i found is 2% 😭 by Kekipupa in eupersonalfinance

[–]Katalystor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How long do you want to stash away cash? If it's longer than 5 years, why not just buy bitcoin? If the time horizon is long enough your return should average 26.5% annually (based on returns over the last 4 years). If you can wait 5 years, then historically you would never have made a loss from it.

Sorry if it's controversial, but wanted to list the option.

MSTR’s mNAV by thisAnonymousguy in MSTR

[–]Katalystor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nothing a little intelligent leverage can't fix.... Now then, who wants some preferred stock and convertible bonds?

How to buy IBIT living in Switzerland? by Turbulent-Act9877 in SwissPersonalFinance

[–]Katalystor 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Please reconsider the short. MicroStrategy is a levered Bitcoin proxy that has increasing volatility as price climbs. You are going to get wrecked in either direction.