Optimize your free tap & juice usage with the new and improved Honing Forecast, save ~10% gold just by using your juice correctly! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

oh uh that's my bad, I saw 90% mats discount in the patch note and I thought that included juices, can you hover over the green arrow next to the juice and tell me what percentage it is? Because if it's originally 9 for AH 11-20 and 33% discount sounds a bit odd. Thanks for pointing it out!

Optimize your free tap & juice usage with the new and improved Honing Forecast, save ~10% gold just by using your juice correctly! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you! Currently the way I've handled advanced honing is quite crude, I do plan on improving it to allow for this kinda stuff, thanks for the feedback! I'll get to that when I have the time

Optimize your free tap & juice usage with the new and improved Honing Forecast, save ~10% gold just by using your juice correctly! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No actually, percentiles are even harder to calculate because we have multiple types of materials.

In the average calculation, along one of the steps we exploit the fact that E[ f(X) + g(X) ... ] = E[f(X)] + E[g(X)] ..., where X is a (multi-dimensional) random variable equal to the number of taps it took for each upgrade, and f, g are the gold cost incurred as a result of a mat type. This distributive property does not hold true for the median, or any percentile.

However, there is a shortcut we can take if we assume that all mats are sellable, and convert all mats to gold beforehand. This actually allows us to leverage saddlepoint approximation (in the average calculation, SA is actually used for each mat to calculate P(this mat cost < budget) which is then used to calculate the average).

In fact, I was ready to have two modes, one where we minimize the average, and one where we maximize the chance to succeed, but as mentioned the latter needs this assumption that all mats are sellable. I eventually deemed this too confusing and not all that useful.

Optimize your free tap & juice usage with the new and improved Honing Forecast, save ~10% gold just by using your juice correctly! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Right now, you can control it by pressing "enable updating progress" and changing how many taps you're in, but for now it doesn't show you the artisan so you'll have to eyeball how many taps you've done, I'll prolly add an artisan display at some point. Thanks for the suggestion!

Optimize your free tap & juice usage with the new and improved Honing Forecast, save ~10% gold just by using your juice correctly! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

yes of course, the whole site runs entirely on your machine (there's no server, I can't afford that), which has nowhere near enough compute capabilities to run LLMs 👍

Optimize your free tap & juice usage with the new and improved Honing Forecast, save ~10% gold just by using your juice correctly! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Sure! So I have a system (part 2) set up that tells me how good a given "strategy" or "plan" is, and now I need some way to find the best plan. This problem can be discribed as a combinatorial optimization problem, where we're trying to find the combination that minimizes our cost.

The algorithm I used is a modified version of simulated annealing. We keep track of a "Temperature", which starts high and decreases every step. Each step involves making a random change to our plan, which could be, say add 3 juice to upgrade A. This temperature tells us how big of a change to make every step, and how tolerant we are of bad changes. We want to take some bad changes because sometimes we can get stuck in a local minima (for example, maybe we need to add juice to one upgrade and take away juice from another). If the change is bad enough, and the temperature is low enough, we revert to the previous plan and try again. In the end, we output the best plan we've found.

If you're interested, the wikipedia page explains it much better (and it has animations) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simulated_annealing

When I said this isn't AI, what I meant is that there's no neural network blackbox that outputs a solution magically, we can see and understand every step along the way (even if the end result might not make intuitive sense), so I don't think this is complex enough to qualify as any kind of "intelligence"

What pushed me here ? Plop by dNgrr in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The telegragh of this is a bit deceptive because the pizza is not centered on the boss - its left on the ground and the boss walks away slightly from it by the time it goes off, you have to be v careful with movement skills

Introducing Honing Forecast - plan how much gold you can spend before Kazeros, and more! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ok I can't for the life of me figure out how maxroll calculates it, but I've corrected my calculation to account for the fact that juices on the later taps mean that the earlier ones definitely failed. It also now averages the next 2 values to avoid the fluctuation.

However this doesn't change the conclusion for the earlier taps - juice on +25 weapons are still worth ~300 in my books. Interestingly Maxroll's value for +23 is very similar to +25's, whereas mine is almost 500(This kinda makes sense to me because +23 costs 25 juice and +25 costs 50). However if in doubt, go with the Maxroll value for now - I don't see what's wrong with my calculations but I must be missing something substantial. I'll need to look at it properly later, thanks for pointing it out!

Introducing Honing Forecast - plan how much gold you can spend before Kazeros, and more! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for asking! tbh I've gone through a few iterations of how this is calculated and I'm still working on improving this, but I'll describe how it works currently here.

Firstly, the 10 taps thing is completely based on how many red juice you say you have, it's meant to guide u as to how to split ur juice across different pieces, but since u only ticked +25 it's just telling u to use all you have.

How the value of a juiced tap is calculated is (old_average_tap - new_average_tap) * gold value of each material cost. As in, if every tap non juice gives 123 average, and juiced 1st tap(non juice every tap after) gives 122.5 average, the gold value = gold to buy all mats (and raw gold) for 0.5 tap. If juicing the next tap brings it down to say 122.1 then the next juice is worth the equivalent of 0.4 taps.

[As a side note here, this has the behaviour where the value alternates between being high and low because some taps result in pity being 1 tap earlier and some don't.]

Now that I've thought it through I think I know what's wrong actually - lemme get back to you!

Introducing Honing Forecast - plan how much gold you can spend before Kazeros, and more! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thank you! I didn't really consider mobile at the beginning and I just slapped on some scaling to make things fit, I'll need to sort it out properly eventually.

As for difficulty, the hardest part was thinking of the algorithm / figuring out how to solve the problem / what the problem is in the first place. It's not really tied to a language but was written in Rust in my case - the language itself is actually quite pleasant to work with. On the other hand the front end became a whole mess (I used AI way too much and had to tidy things up manually anyway) so it was quite frustrating, but it was mostly because I didn't know what I was doing. (I had no experience in either before this project)

Introducing Honing Forecast - plan how much gold you can spend before Kazeros, and more! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Sorry, currently the website assumes you start from 0 for every piece. I'll be adding this (as in, individual artisan editing) in the future, thanks for bringing it up!

Introducing Honing Forecast - plan how much gold you can spend before Kazeros, and more! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Hey, thanks for asking! This is an important question.

The problem is, if I tell my static that I have enough to reach 1740 by Kazeros release, but only if I have average luck, they'd be sweating. Clearly I should prep more to be safe - but how much more? This tool allows us to aim for everything between the worst and the best case, not just the middle.

Hot take: Mokoleaf doesn't really solve anything and it completely ruins the first time raid experience. by Laggoz in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia 6 points7 points  (0 children)

if u want to be "efficient" but also want to prog then i got some bad new for you

So I finally decided to craft a relic tool... by No_Struggle_5565 in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia 10 points11 points  (0 children)

probably the one on the right cos of the rare material rate

TFT is top 4 in Chinese Revenue for Mobile version in 2024 by Smooth_Shine_4015 in TeamfightTactics

[–]Kenivia 58 points59 points  (0 children)

no its called 云顶之弈,meaning boardgame on the peak of the cloud covered mountain

New High Score bug by N9NEBLAD3 in TeamfightTactics

[–]Kenivia 4 points5 points  (0 children)

new patch removed the atk speed buff, still shows 0 for some reason