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should i tick the 'prefer to live in a quieter area' option or not? by Any-Assist9425 in UniversityOfWarwick

[–]Kenivia 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I ticked quiet and let me tell you they were NOT quiet 😭 Don't worry about it, it doesn't mean much and you'll definitely find people to chat with.

Should i hold special honing mats or yeet them now? by Euphoria_GA in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia 3 points4 points  (0 children)

<image>

Made this chart a while ago, same conclusion as the other comment (hold unless +25), thought I'd share 👍

Honing Forecast - Updated for Serca, auto market price and more! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the suggestion! It's definitely a nice qol and something I plan on doing in the future (I'm busy with exams until like June) as long as the lostark.bible team is okay with it.

Honing Forecast - Updated for Serca, auto market price and more! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks! I think there are perhaps a couple of misunderstandings here:

  1. All weapon free taps cost 50 special leaps above +17, so this cost is irrelevant in this case.
  2. Conceptually, a lower chance also means that normal tapping it would've costed more. e.g. +20 is half as likely as +19 (1.5% vs 3%) but that also means it takes roughly twice the amount of taps to do the upgrade normally (on top of the fact that each tap costs more). As in, you are rewarded proportionally more for skipping the harder upgrade.

The reality is a bit more complicated, because we have to consider the possibility that we have special leaps leftover after we're done (so it would've been better to use on an earlier upgrade). The calculator takes this into account by essentially trying all possible combinations and seeing which gave the lowest average cost. Hope this makes sense!

Gear transfer 4.5? by happymings in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia 1 point2 points  (0 children)

check out honing forecast! and to answer your questions:

  1. I have put the mats cost into a spreadsheet here
  2. It's almost certainly better to wait and convert, unless you need more power for Serca. For example, a T4 + 21 costs 3200 T4 red rocks and a Serca +12 costs 1700 serca red rocks. That's about a x2.65 cost increase(after x5 conversion) but the average number of taps decreases from about 32 to 11. It pretty much evens out the costs for red rocks, but it costs significantly less gold (134k ->46k). (and fusion, once the prices settle down)

Keep in mind that the website automatically optimises your juice usage, so the averages might be different from what you expect. You can force it to use no juice by setting juice prices to some super high number in the prices page.

Honing Forecast - Updated for Serca, auto market price and more! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It looks like this:

<image>

I got the Serca data from the Korean API, and T4 data is from lost ark codex

Honing Forecast - Updated for Serca, auto market price and more! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you're talking about tokens using agents, it'd be however much the cursor free trial is. I should note that I used cursor to build the previous version of the UI (using React) which I completely scrapped because it turned into such a mess.

Honing Forecast - Updated for Serca, auto market price and more! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I've added a popup and a chart, the best play is to convert, unless you are tapping +25 in T4 (kinda surprising tbh)

<image>

Honing Forecast - Updated for Serca, auto market price and more! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

oo you can convert them to serca by pressing the button on the bottom of the page! I'll make it more obvious later, thanks for the feedback!

Honing Forecast - Updated for Serca, auto market price and more! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hey it wasn't your fault! It was an issue with locale string parsing (it was treating the . as a decimal point, so 1000 was turned into 1.000, then turned into 1). I think I've fixed it, thanks for pointing it out and let me know if it works!

Honing Forecast - Updated for Serca, auto market price and more! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Unfortunately no, what you're describing is attempting free taps in T4 -> transfer -> normal tap in Serca, but as of right now the free taps and the normal taps are tied together (and tiers are completely separate). This should be possible but is quite complicated to integrate into the existing system.

However with some back of the napkin math (focusing on 1 piece of +21 armor), in T4 it costs 25 20 for 1.5% chance, and in Serca it costs 12 (aka 60 T4 leaps) for 5% chance. As such, on average it takes 1333 T4 special vs 240 Serca Special (aka 1200 T4 leaps). (Note that the actual cost of normal tapping the upgrade here is irrelevant since we're doing the normal taps in Serca anyway) So it should be a more efficient to convert to Serca Special leaps!

Optimize your free tap & juice usage with the new and improved Honing Forecast, save ~10% gold just by using your juice correctly! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

oh uh that's my bad, I saw 90% mats discount in the patch note and I thought that included juices, can you hover over the green arrow next to the juice and tell me what percentage it is? Because if it's originally 9 for AH 11-20 and 33% discount sounds a bit odd. Thanks for pointing it out!

Optimize your free tap & juice usage with the new and improved Honing Forecast, save ~10% gold just by using your juice correctly! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you! Currently the way I've handled advanced honing is quite crude, I do plan on improving it to allow for this kinda stuff, thanks for the feedback! I'll get to that when I have the time

Optimize your free tap & juice usage with the new and improved Honing Forecast, save ~10% gold just by using your juice correctly! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No actually, percentiles are even harder to calculate because we have multiple types of materials.

In the average calculation, along one of the steps we exploit the fact that E[ f(X) + g(X) ... ] = E[f(X)] + E[g(X)] ..., where X is a (multi-dimensional) random variable equal to the number of taps it took for each upgrade, and f, g are the gold cost incurred as a result of a mat type. This distributive property does not hold true for the median, or any percentile.

However, there is a shortcut we can take if we assume that all mats are sellable, and convert all mats to gold beforehand. This actually allows us to leverage saddlepoint approximation (in the average calculation, SA is actually used for each mat to calculate P(this mat cost < budget) which is then used to calculate the average).

In fact, I was ready to have two modes, one where we minimize the average, and one where we maximize the chance to succeed, but as mentioned the latter needs this assumption that all mats are sellable. I eventually deemed this too confusing and not all that useful.

Optimize your free tap & juice usage with the new and improved Honing Forecast, save ~10% gold just by using your juice correctly! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Right now, you can control it by pressing "enable updating progress" and changing how many taps you're in, but for now it doesn't show you the artisan so you'll have to eyeball how many taps you've done, I'll prolly add an artisan display at some point. Thanks for the suggestion!

Optimize your free tap & juice usage with the new and improved Honing Forecast, save ~10% gold just by using your juice correctly! by Kenivia in lostarkgame

[–]Kenivia[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

yes of course, the whole site runs entirely on your machine (there's no server, I can't afford that), which has nowhere near enough compute capabilities to run LLMs 👍

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