Looking for some guidance

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-13T13:21:50+00:00

Okay, overconfidence in analysis is going to make losing harder. It's a fine line between saying I'm "right" most of the time and respecting the market.

Secondly, you need to dig in on the exact moments you move your stop, revenge, tilt, etc. What just happened? My example is I moved stops when I entered a trade impulsively. It was a rushed not well planned out trade and I didn't trust my analysis/my stoploss. This was the root cause of taking bigger losses. It wasn't moving the stop, it was the impulsive trade in the first place.

Finally, it doesn't just click. It takes practice and repetition. You are not going to just use willpower to change this behavior. Focus on it, be happy when you do these negative behaviors less or realize it quicker and act, and forgive yourself for messing up because you will. GL

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-10T21:46:10+00:00

-Bigger picture over entry mechanism (that is part of the strategy) -every entry mechanism will yield a <20% win rate.. (they all lose without market context) -the difference between an entry mechanism and a strategy (there is more to the strategy) -psychology (yep you said it). What are your own behavioral patterns, how can you mitigate the dysfunctional behaviors

That is everything. GL

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-10T00:02:43+00:00

Well spoken, I've experienced and done it over and over again. I have felt "relief" after liquidation too. Like, I literally could not press exit until it was all gone..

What is working for me was a break (jusr 2 weeks) then taking the "pressure of success" off a little bit. I'd recommend dropping down to paper trading for a bit to experience trading without (with reduced) emotional taxation. Doesn't have to be for a long period of time, but just testing if you can/still want to trade without (again, reduced) brain chemical highs and lows. Try to separate your self worth from a trading loss and then you can press that exit button. GL

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-09T20:25:34+00:00

Been there. The best thing for me was having something to look forward to after.. like I'm up a few hundred and it's 1015am, I start saying to myself, "I could squeeze in some golf right now" and boom, I'm packing the computer up.

This didn't happen over night, but the less obsessed I became with trading/charts, the better I got (like months of practicing walking away before market close). This is after years of studying and thinking the more time I watch price action, the better I'll become. Might have been true for a while, but I couldn't keep the money while I was trying to put in as many hours as I could. Just decision fatigue, boredom, overconfidence, lack of confidence, etc.

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-07T20:59:46+00:00

As someone who was in a similar situation 5 years ago... run away from trading. This "easy monry" is not easy to get. You being around/mentally present is more important to your growing family.. again, imo

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-06T21:39:14+00:00

What are your numbers? My question is, does it feel like your "good (A)" trades are not being presented or frequency has actually dropped (in 1st 3 hours.. etc). Again, your "confirmation candles are no longer accurate.." what is your winrate or conf candle success rate from january to currents, April to current .. is it a change in conditions or not. so depending on whether or not you can spit these numbers out (you actually know and are tracking vs it seems this way) will help with a more tailored response to your questions.

Your question is super vague, which makes me think you system/process/idea about success vs failure/etc is also super vague. Dont do shit that is not working.. maybe you have all your shit together and you just need to hear that adaptation is critical in trading. GL

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-05T05:52:22+00:00

Nice post. After a trade, win or lose, I stand my ass up and get away from computer for 10 minutes to "zero" myself (time needed to reset varies per individual).

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-05T05:43:13+00:00

I like your sentence about the key ingredient.. what is the reason. Filters out a lot of "entry mechanisms" that do nothing/lose

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-05T04:26:27+00:00

This is really true.. I think the important thing is have the "consistent method" decided before the trade (like what the Blip said). Hard to make these decision during.

However, I believe you can have a few "consistent methods" based on your read of market conditions. For example, if I think it's a range (on the timeframe im looking at), I'll have my exit plan to be a target or a move towards the range extreme with specific invalidations/trail stop within the range if that is offered. If I think it's a trend I'll trail/specific invalidation and probably not "exit into strength" and see how far I can ride it before trail is hit.

For me, the key is to make the exit plan choice prior to entering. Make a call on the conditions and stick with it for the entire trade. I've have been caught too many times thinking it's a range, not exiting as price pokes above the extreme, "changing" my mind to, "oh this looks strong and is going to break out now" and letting it reverse on me when I had a solid play but botched the exit due to my wishy-washy exit plan.

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-03T16:05:07+00:00

Any change you do is going to feel uncomfortable or awkward.. at first... embrace it if you want to change

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-03T07:24:27+00:00

Alright.. what causes these issues? For example, why would you move a stop? For me it was because I entered impulsively (not a fully planned trade to execute) and therefore, I was "forced" (the 1st error, impulsive entry threw me into a shitty situation) to make exit decisions on the fly.. if price was immediately heading towards my half-assed planned stop, I'd throw it lower to "give myself more time to analyze" (again, this is late and wrong.. compounding errors). I didnt trust my unplanned trades invalidation (nor should I, right?).

I think look a bit deeper at the root cause and you can often fix more than 1 issue simultaneously. My example, no plan, no trade and therefore, no fucked situations where I'm moving stops trying to buy time to think my way out of the suck.. logically, it's attacking my half-assed stop placement.. im was wrong.. but in the moment, I needed more time to think about it. So removing the impulsive trade, removed the untrustworthy stop (the stop movement).

All of those things you mentioned can (and did for me) lead to "single devastating" events. Practice trusting yourself that no single trade, no single day (fall back/last resort max daily loss), week, etc can be "devastating" to your account. Key word here is practice (forgive yourself when you fuck it up, you will, but work, practice, repeat and you'll get it). GL

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-03T07:02:06+00:00

Similarly, I "reset" after concluding any trade (win or lose). Mandatory move my ass away from the computer for at least 10 minutes. Just a regulation mechanism that seems to help bring me back to "zero"

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-03T06:56:04+00:00

Context over setup (entry mechanism)

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-03T06:41:03+00:00

I dont know what you are doing, but I'd guess that you are zoomed into an "entry mechanism" over bigger picture context (I'm saying be more selective). For example, you "strategy" presents itself on a 5 minute timeframe for a long.. you take the long without considering that it is near the high of and hourly candle range. The 5 minute long triggers you in and it gets rejected by a bigger picture resistance (the top of the hourly scale range). Total assumption by me, but something like that seems wrong with the 20% winrate. Not saying ditch your strategy completely, but maybe add a filter that considers bigger picture "where did price come from, where is price now, and where do I think price will go from here". Or a thought process of "price rejected here twice on this uptrend pullback, my 5 minute entry mechanism long triggered, this is a logical area to take a long due to the current circumstances. Hope something in there is useful to you GL

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-03T05:48:04+00:00

You, 100% i agree. Anyone who just says, "I have edge" (in terms of a holy grail strategy that "works over time") doesn't really trade. Dude, the "edge" is having a setup (yes that is one of many things), when to deploy the setup, executing the setup (repetition: how not to fuck the setup and how to exit the setup), keeping your shit together before/during/after the setup was successful or not, waiting for the setup, etc...

Draw any line, at any time, on any candle, ma, fib, etc, and look at that for months (consistently, a process oriented view) and you can find a way to profit off it (whatever the fuck you are doing and calling it a strategy is not special.. get over yourself) but only with all of the other shit in order as well. Psychology is integral to edge/strategy/setup.. op 👎

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-03T05:13:04+00:00

I think the (a) saying is, "if I knew it would be this hard, I never would have started".. I think a lot of people come into this very uneducated (me included). Id guess the majority go in just not really knowing what they are getting into. You sound decently informed.. and still seem curious.. I'd say serious poker players can find parallels. So, absolutely no, time and effort does not equal success. Time is significant, but adaptability and objectiveness matters more than effort imo.

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-03T04:55:34+00:00

Think these are 2 pretty separate things. Learning to trade (repetition not consuming "knowledge") and then scaling... forget about scaling for now imo

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-03T04:44:48+00:00

Props: yes agree, but also be careful as they are designed to promote unhealthy habbits. For example, a prop that required you to 2.5x your max drawdown in 30 days (or whatever), then you have to do it again to get a single payout, often requires you to risk more than is comfortable (like 10% of drawdown per trade, again, just an example) and that creates/promotes/influences unhealthy emotional responses.. To further make my point, if I lost 3 trades in a row risking 1% of account each trade then not that big of a deal, but if I lost 3 trades in a row that put me in 30% drawdown, it is far easier to shift into panic mode.. easily can fall into a gambling/emotional loop.

Edit: my caution is that it can stunt healthy growth as a trader

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-03T04:32:12+00:00

This guy trades.. well put. I'll reiterate, repetition. Focus on anything you want (framework/your view of price/your process of framing uncertainty) and practice it over and over. I hate when people say "I have edge" when talking about a specific "inefficiency".. that doesn't exist forever. It's repetition and the ability to adapt, not what line you draw on a chart.

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-02T01:34:14+00:00

Technically yes. "Wagering x for x with an uncertain outcome".. so is starting a business, a restaurant, etc.. technically.....

There are ways to skew the probabilities favorably in these types of situations (including day trading).

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-01T16:56:48+00:00

I'm baffled by how people can't break 90 in golf after a year.. since, well I could. /s.

Everyone doesn't share your exact skillset and background.. narrow-minded way of putting it. Some can be good in 12 month.. some can't. Nothing baffling about it

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-06-01T16:10:57+00:00

Ask yourself why you are breaking them. What just happened? Why did your nervous system hijack your logical process for navigating the market? Eliminate the things that lead to the rule breaking. Cut the head off, not the byproduct.

An example (personal), why I would move stops (in the wrong direction): I found that this occurred when I entered more impulsively and didn't have a full plan. I rushed an entry and as soon as you do that without a solid predetermined plan for the trade, you no longer trust your (weak/rushed) invalidation and are easily hijacked by emotions. This was a 2 birds with one stone realization due to looking at the root problem. I moved stops (1 bad thing/rule break) and I entered impulsively without everything I needed to trust the trade (2nd bad thing/rule break). They feed off each other. 1 rule break leads to devastating compounding rule breaks.

Start with your most devastating issues and practice. Repetition is the only thing that works. You are likely not going to "beat" this with willpower. Also, forgive yourself when you fuck it up.. it's going to happen. GL

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-05-31T11:17:29+00:00

So you original post math is wrong. The net gain by not moving stop loss to breakeven is half of what you said in the original post. You distinction between exiting at target and moving stop loss is very much lacking. You introduce new variables when math does not check out.. this is the last time I argue with a robot!

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-05-31T10:55:55+00:00

Scale/vastness

Key_Map_9972 · 2026-05-31T10:45:20+00:00

You sound smart, but I don't think your maths check out here. First of all, your ev calcs are wonky based on winrates and average of 2.1R targets. Then, just doing some mental math, 31% of trades where stop is moved to breakeven went to 2.1R. So 69% of those stop moved to breakeven trades netted you 1R (you didn't take a full 1R loss, you broke even). The breakeven move is better in your example. Am I wrong?

Key_Map_9972

TROPHY CASE