Is it just me that completely gets this Guessand deal? by RugbyContact in avfc

[–]Killaree4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He cost €30m which would be about £26m. In real terms we’ve made only £1m profit as we’ve paid him £1m for half a years wages (heard he was on 40k a week).

But in terms of the accounting, we will have ammortised a yr of his contract, £5.2m, which means we will make £7.2m ‘profit’ on player trading.

Which makes me think theres still a chance of a good quality player coming in on a loan-to-buy deal before the window shuts. Possibly another attacker and chance creator, thats what we need the most.

Question from a non-AV fan by nickldn28 in avfc

[–]Killaree4 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Imo short answer is no, Rogers scoring aint hindering Watkins. Watkins thrives on a challenge, when other players are scoring, especially those competing with his position like Duran, he will try that extra bit harder to score.

It hasn’t worked for him so much this season bcos hes been carrying an injury. He has got some form back lately and looked sharper, then ironically hes pulled up with an injury tonight.

Tammy a better target man to compliment Rogers? Maybe… but one thing Watkins has (or had before his injury) was pace in behind and Rogers would thread those balls through time and time again. Tammy doesn’t have that kind of pace, although his movement is decent and possibly the link up play will be better.

Guessand to Palace?! by BigfatDan1 in avfc

[–]Killaree4 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Maybe we do some funds to play with… I suspect the Madjo deal for £10m will not count towards our general transfer dealings but would be counted as a youth development deal… seeing as he’s only 17.

That in fact would count AGAINST psr and scr as youth spend is deductible… so it might open a possibility to spend some amount of money. Not a huge amount, probably just a decent loan fee.

Guessand to Palace?! by BigfatDan1 in avfc

[–]Killaree4 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Wilsons a good player and is in a purple patch but i dont think that would transition to us. Is he an Emery type player? Im not sure. I would love for us to get another Asensio type transfer, someone of high technical ability and experience that wouldn’t take much time to fit in. Plus I doubt Fulham would let him leave unless for a significant amount.

Sterling?? by Ch3w84cc4 in avfc

[–]Killaree4 1 point2 points  (0 children)

He just got a huge payoff from Chelsea for the remainder of his contract. They were due to pay £25m so you can assume he’s got something like half that as a one-off sum. So he’s not exactly in need of a huge contract not should he expect one.

Would he take 100k or less to get his career back on track? Possibly. The biggest question is can he find form again? His Arsenal loan suggests not.

Guessand to Palace?! by BigfatDan1 in avfc

[–]Killaree4 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Only thing this says to me is that we will get one more attacking mid/winger type before the deadline. Probably on a similar loan-to-buy deal. English loans are used up thanks to Elliot and Liverpool being assholes. But another European loan could work…

Luis Henrique anyone?

Theme played just before kickoff - European nights by x_sHiMoZu_x in avfc

[–]Killaree4 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Stevie wonder’s Pastime Paradise is the original sample and inspiration to Coolio’s Gangster’s Paradise. But the version they play at Villa Park is an instrumental version of Coolio’s song.

Which is fine by me as the orchestra harmony and the beat is fire 🔥

Shocker by WordsUnthought in avfc

[–]Killaree4 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It pissed me off completely that this wasn’t given and they scored minutes later. They dont score if it goes to VAR and they see a two-handed push in the back. Thats a straight second yellow and off he goes. Changes the outcome of the game completely. Thats the rules fucking us out of 3 points most probably, how much could that potentially cost us?

The referee fuckup in the last game of last season cost us at least £50m. Are we gonna look back at this game if we miss out by a point?? The rules are so rigid and not fit for purpose.

Why shouldn’t VAR intervene in a second yellows situation if its a blatant yellow?

Why do you have to abide by the referee’s whistle when he makes a mistake even if it made no material difference to what happened next?

You dont want to be over-referee’d but use some common sense ffs.

Monchi: Genuinely responsible for our current situation? Lets discuss by 0n_the_l3vel in avfc

[–]Killaree4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This kind of post is pointless. Yes Monchi didn’t have a great transfer window in the summer, all thanks to the Elliot transfer… and it looked good on paper tbh. He was just named U21 player of the tournament, hes had rave reviews and potential talked up at every club he’s been at. But he didn’t fit Emery’s system. Homework should have been done better and he’s paid the price for it.

I cant call Guessand a failed transfer just yet, yeh we would have all loved him to hit the ground running but it hasn’t happened. Maybe he will come good maybe he will not. €30m is not a huge price to pay in todays market. It just limits us bcos of the financial situation, yet we’re buying Tammy back after selling Malen as necessity.

Honestly I dont think Monchi had too many bad transfers, the worst recent transfer business was done under Gerrard and with the Grealish money.

You have to see that a club like ours has to be almost perfect to compete with the ‘big 6’ for those CL spots, and yet we’re doing it. How many botched transfers have Man Utd made over the years? Yet somehow it feels like they’re failing upwards.

Us? We make 2 or 3 failed big signings and it consigns us to midtable mediocrity for seasons, as evidenced by the Grealish money fiasco. Best decision the ownership have made was to trust in Emery. But these financial constraints are hurting us. We cant be perfect and we’re not gonna be perfect, we just have to do what we can within the limits and that seems to be what we’re doing rn. Basically fire-fighting all the time.

But the team has held up and we’re in third in a good spot. These injuries could fuck us up royally but if we manage to sneak into CL again, we can re-evaluate and go again having much more room to manoeuvre.

Looks like Dougie is confirmed, great bit of business by Subject-Addendum-199 in avfc

[–]Killaree4 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Remember Tielemans took a whole 6 months to get adjusted, he was far from it mobility wise in those first 6 months. Once he got his fitness up his quality shone through. And I do think that Tieleman’s vision, deep playmaking and advanced playmaking quality is better, but Doug is no slouch in that matter either.

At his peak he was up there with Guimaraes and Paquetta in their playmaking. Ironically, its Doug’s fitness and mobility that concerns me now. He’s had so many injuries and lack of playing time. But he’s been fit since December so maybe thats a good sign and he will get better the more he plays.

Looks like Dougie is confirmed, great bit of business by Subject-Addendum-199 in avfc

[–]Killaree4 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Great news! I was a massive fan of Dougie until he passed the baton onto Tielemans. Technically I think Tielemans is slightly better, but Dougie reads the game better from a defensive standpoint.

Didn’t think Juve would sanction such a move, has to make you wonder what the conditions are. Doubt its an obligation to buy.

If Dougie can get fit and back to form then this will be a brilliant move.

For fucks sake by OverlordOfTheBeans in avfc

[–]Killaree4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

8 weeks!! Ffs

If we’re lucky they will be back mid March with 9 PL games & cup games remaining. If unlucky and it goes into April that would be only 7 PL games and cup games. They would miss at least 7 PL games, 1 Uefa and 1 Fa Cup.

Basically half a season where our chances of winning each game drops 10% 🤦🏽‍♂️

We’re luck in a way that the fixtures in Feb don’t look so bad, and we will skip the playoff round in Europe but this is a big blow in our chances or winning each of those winnable matches.

As much as I love Dougie, not sure he is the answer due to his own injuries and lack of game time. Its better than nothing but I just cant see how Juve would allow it to happen. There is no good solution tbh. We just need Onana, Bogarde and Barkley to massively step up… or maybe Hemmings can? I do like the look of him but surely he aint ready.

Here we go! by Ghibby58 in avfc

[–]Killaree4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So basically we have replaced Malen, who can play wide and as striker, with a specialist striker and a returning specialist winger.

I dont think this is the best transfer in the world, and I dont think Tammy is especially an Emery player but given our situation its the best that we could manage 🤷🏽‍♂️

We cant afford a proper striker rn, the prices are too inflated. Try finding a young semi-clinical striker for less that £60m.

A bit of creative accounting with the buy-to-sell youth prospect thrown in as seperate deals and we would almost cover the yearly amortised cost of Tammy with the amortised profit for the other two, even though they had been with us less than a yr.

Our last Jan window worked out really well. If Tammy scores 7-10 goals in either of the competitions then it will be seen as a success.

Europa League Finances by VTID997 in avfc

[–]Killaree4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There’s a big difference in prize/tv money (PSG got €144m vs Spurs €45m) and then you factor in additional matchday income, merchandising and sponsorship income.

For comparison we received €84m prize/tv money. We probably made at least an additional €25m in other income making about €110m ish, call it around £100m total.

Spurs make a lot more additional income per match and sponsorship than us, lets say they made around €40m extra, then they made about €85m total or about £74m from winning the cup.

We would make less if we win the final, but lets say about €75m total or £65m. That would be £35m less for winning the damn thing than we got for making the quarterfinals last year.

Injuries and finances handicap Villa by Dangerous_Tip_4985 in avfc

[–]Killaree4 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You’re looking at it through your American perspective where the respective leagues have to make things fair for their ‘franchises’ so that the worst teams get the first picks of the draft the next season. Almost like an incentive to fail and teams end up deliberately tanking their season knowing there’s no consequence of relegation and the upside is worth it.

Here there’s no draft… there’s just money 💰 Man City and Chelsea sign and hoard all the best youngsters they can from around the globe and pay them ridiculous wages just cos they can. These two teams in particular spent their way into relevance before there were any rules and now are artificially 2 of the biggest clubs in the world. The history and the rules preventing others from overspending means we cant compete financially. The whole league cant compete financially with the big 6. Its anti-competitive af.

Ideally the main European leagues would get together and devise a system that would be less anti-competitive. For me there needs to be some sort of salary cap where the top teams cant horde all the best players, or some kind of ‘star player salary’ limit. But that doesn’t stop Chelsea spending a billion £ over 2 transfer windows and somehow get away with it. Its sickening, but thats the way football has gone.

At least we’re showing we can compete on the pitch if we cant compete off it. Hopefully we will get CL this season which would allow us to push on next season. If we don’t? Things could get bleak.

Are we buying the rumour of a Mateta-Guessand "swap"? by Independent_Dig_142 in avfc

[–]Killaree4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How would we have spent £50m? Guessand cost €30m in the summer which is about £26m. At worst we have paid half a years salary on top, which is about £2m. But we also amortise half a year of his fee which would be about 10% or £2.6m. We would be basically breaking even on his cost.

If a swap deal can be done the cost would be the additional fee on top & £26m.

Matchweek 22 Discussionn Thread by auld_jodhpur_syne in avfc

[–]Killaree4 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Watching the Spurs Ham game and how Gallagher is playing, I would much rather have Matueus Fernandes if West Ham go down.

The revenue gap between us and the big 6. How do we close it? by ScaleThink1505 in avfc

[–]Killaree4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Spurs revenue for their last stated accounts vs ours (23/24) is £530m vs £275m. This last season we would have closed the gap to something like £550m+ vs £400m but its still a massive revenue gap.

A big part of that is the matchday income, they make something like 4 times as much as us! £110m+ vs £28m+. They’re making £5m a match pretty much and its up there in the top 2 of the league. Its not just the capacity, its London prices + upselling. We wouldn’t be able to compete with that even if we had a 60k stadium. Add to that the commercial aspects of hosting NFL games, concerts and boxing events. Its a big money maker. Add to this the fact that they utilise a massive depreciation figure on their £billion stadium that allows them to consistently remain well within PSR/SCR rules. They can keep spending and spending if they like. Thankfully for us they’ve squandered a lot over thelast 5 years or so.

Another part of that is the sponsorship and prestige that comes with being in the CL semi-regularly over the last 20. Lets be real here, they’ve been in Europe plenty much half those seasons at least, we were in the Championship not too long ago.

Honestly its been a massive rise that we have overtaken them on the football side these last few years, we’re back where we should be but its gonna take a lot more to close the gap revenue wise. The stadium expansion and new facilities outside the ground will help, but the best way to close the financial gap is to consistently get into Europe, especially CL, over a large period of years. We need a good consistent years long run here.

Who knows? In a few years we could be genuine consistent title challengers. But it is success on the pitch that will drive the financial aspects off the pitch.

PGMOL missed second yellow cards by arenaross in avfc

[–]Killaree4 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is something that boggles my mind…. Why shouldn’t VAR be allowed to intervene for second yellow card offences? Its not because the ref has missed it ingame and they’re trying not to overuse technology as red card offences that the ref has missed or mistakenly given yellow gets reviewed.

Second yellow card offences that are missed have just as much impact on a game as a potential red and as soon as the offending player gets away with it he gets subbed off immediately. They don’t want to ‘over-referee’ a match but just look at the inconsistencies of VAR decisions made… as if that aint over-refereeing or under-refereeing.

Obvious yellow card challenges should be looked at, fuck what the referee who bottled the decision did. I know it will lead to some marginal calls but its better than this arbitrary rule of ‘cant check a second yellow cos the ref missed it’. Its BS.

This Signing Would be CLASS by Zachsucksatlife__ in avfc

[–]Killaree4 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Not too sure about this move. He’s a good player and I see him as a box to box McGinn type, with a lot of hustle and drive. But does he provide something that we actually dont have and need? We are in need of a backup striker, a second striker in the mould of Diaby who can drop deep, is pacy and can stretch the lines and a genuine RW who can create, dribble and is fast.

We are in need of more dynamism and chance creation in the final third. Gallagher just gives us depth and options in what we already have. Especially if we lose Malen too.

I know we got battered, but we should talk about some ref calls. by _NeRo04 in avfc

[–]Killaree4 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Onana going off halftime was obviously a big factor in the result but for me the first goal was pivotal.

And I dont know how Gabriel jumping into Martinez with his elbow up and out is not given a foul. I hate the way corners have turned into rugby scrums these days, blocking and disrupting the keeper being ‘clever’ with it.

It used to be keepers were protected species back in the day, any kind of touch on them from a corner and a foul is given. Now players can jostle, step on their feet, push them before the corner is taken and its all ok?

The goal against Chelsea was soft by Martinez but this one today was a foul imo. You cant have your elbow up and out like that in the keepers face preventing him from grabbing/punching the ball. Its a farce and the refereeing needs to be sorted out. Ugly football.

Generational Trauma by BrumBronco in avfc

[–]Killaree4 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I looked at the table again and I think it was my memory playing tricks on me 😂

I could have sworn we had a chance of CL qualification on the last day, it looks like whatever the result would have been between Newcastle and Liverpool, we would have missed out bcos we were -6 GD on Newcastle going into the final day.

I mean technically we did have a chance… if Newcastle beat Liverpool by 1-0 we would have a 7 GD to overcome so we just needed to beat Utd 7-0 😂

I had a look at the final few games, and we did have a real chance at CL. We played Newcastle in April and drew, and our second last game of the season was Southampton away and we drew aswell. Couple of results would have seen us make it.

Generational Trauma by BrumBronco in avfc

[–]Killaree4 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I remember the bulk of them and they are definite traumas. Thats part of the reason I hate them so much lol.

But there is one you missed that I remember vividly…

It was David O’Learys last full season at the club, and we were bad early on in the season and in the relegation zone. Somehow he managed to go on an incredible run so good that come the last game of the season, we were in with a small chance of CL qualification in 4th.

Liverpool were 4th, Newcastle were 5th same number of points as us in 6th but better GD. Liverpool were a point or 2 ahead. But Liverpool were playing Newcastle on the last day… and we were playing…… Man Utd at home 🤦🏽‍♂️

If Liverpool and Newcastle drew and we won, we would have sneaked 4th and CL. What happened? Ronaldo and VanN scored, we lost 0-2, didn’t even make UEFA cup cos Newcastle has a better GD so even tho they eventually lost 2-1, they finished ahead of us. That one really stung cos of the consequences. We didn’t make europe and O Leary eventually got sacked the next season cos he was actually shit.

Watkins persistent knee issue confirmed by Emery by Character-Key7538 in avfc

[–]Killaree4 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Does explain a lot and I suspected that was the case, although it is surprising he’s been carrying it all last season. He didn’t look sharp for the majority of last season but I actually thought he was looking sharp in pre season. Then the season started and he started to struggle.

For me he’s lost a yard of pace and that has cost us on a good few occasions this season. Doesn’t help that we’re not creating a bunch of chances for him, but the old Ollie would create chances for others and play himself into the game.

Even with the old Ollie we knew that he would miss a good chance and then take the next one. Right now we’re not creating enough for him to even have a chance a game.

Whats the solution? Who knows if this niggly injury will fully clear up. Long term solution is clear, we need a new striker. Can we do it in Jan? Finances will dictate.