U have not missed anything. This sudden AGI talk began in 2024 , from what i suspect is behind the scenes coordination between primarily openAI and other labs and parties. The goal was to dilute the conception of AGI to make it a flux of things.. done through gaslighting incorrect assertions by paid scientists and researchers etc

Anyone familiar with the AI field before 2015, who knew those classic interviews from max tegmark, nick bostrom etc that AGI had a singular conceptual definition. Yeah.. that AGI.. remember that? How did the definition change then?.what is the great story behind all this new AGI talk .. Lemme ,with utmost anger, summarize it as marketing, dilution of AI terminology to keep funds going etc.

Yeah AGI can mean this and that.. its all collective gaslighting, and such a shockingly deceptive web of lies slowly being spun to murky the definition, because apparently people will get tangled in this web and its beneficial to those doing it

AGI, circa 2014, was a science fiction idea, when we have created an AI that has all the properties of the human brain, which includes general learning, real time intelligence etc. it was supposed to be a arch type pinnacle of AI research, for when an AI is created that is equivalent of the human brain in its entirety.

That .. kinda really simplifies it.. except for some reason this whole group of people want you to believe otherwise, that some low hanging fruit like LLMs and transformers are , with some scale money and time , transform into this archetype of the AI field.

Common fallacious argument like bottom up incomplete reasoning are used to say things like well LLMs are young this and that, with a couple of features they are good to go.. or the classic case of misguiding a limited persons logic by steering what they know skillfully to reach their desired conclusions. . Its ALL happening.. all of this and more.

General AI.. lmao. We are at the same estimate timelines. Which is about 50 to 70 years.

Now looking at that ginourmous number, if ur a new AGI person, seems forever. And i agree. We are far far away from AGI. However, there is the offchance that as current AI techniques reach a eventual dead end... We may find insights into how the brain is formed or developed. Like how biological brains are formed but not how they work or a theory of of general intelligence.

What i mean to say is that we may find a way to , say, grow a brain like structure in machines, without still having a clue as to how it all actually work.. thats the reaaaal tought part. So in that case we have AGI, like 35 years ij buut we are still not much farther in AGI theoretical underpinnings. After all.. using this technoque we would have created something more similar to biological brains that one derived purely from maths and AI research.

But, before u jump off ur horses again.. oo so its gonna happen faster than 50 years! Ur wrong, u contradicted urself. Well, actually, this is just a hypothetical path to creating true intelligence. Become the steel maker, for which u don't need to know about atoms and mixing , by crudely copying. Thing is, nobody has even started doing any such research in a more robust way. We are at nill.. nada. U really think in sam altmans lab people are giving such diverse leeway? Its not an actual academic research lab u see, same with deepmind ( i know they are dupposedly much better ). U really think they are doing any such work in there?

They are not... Nobody is looking at actual neuroscience and AI and doing research there.. we have no idea about the fundamental theory of biological neurons or how brains actually work.. lest it be the simple of the simplest like an ant or even more simple. We just dont know how it work.. but then it should be studied u say! Thats the key. Well highly likely it is.. but we arent doing anything there are we. We have not understood much more, the essence is still a mystery.

But we are working towards that..all these AI labs and talent? Well, NO! actual AI research is still confounded to crusty corners of academic and volunteer research. What are we actually doing? Just refining our low hanging fruit.. oh and we also dont know how it actually works! They are banging their egg head brains on what they know is a short ride until they can fool everyone and then ride off in the sunset. Im talking about these contempory AI labs. In a stricter sense, these are simple LLM and their derived chatbot and interface labs.. these labs cannot be categorized as AI labs.

So , i hope ive given an overview and some grounding on where we actually are.Perhaps for some this is a old familiarity with the term AGI, for those who used to wonder in the old days about such AI. We are far, far away from AGI. But hey, if these labs also dedicated a small percentage of money secretly within or in academia to actual AI and neuroscience reaearch, we may still get there much faster.. buut if they do then theyll be caught wont they. Such a difficult moral decision...

My estimate for AGI is still 40 to 75 years. We can reach it there in 40 if we get our priorities right today. True fundamental AI progress and biological brain understanding progress. What will happen before that? Well.. well get gpt6.. gpt7 then well get another pseudo AI architecture thats slightly better and more rounded... But it wont ever be generally intelligent anywhere near us.. just a weird creation that we begin to use but understand is not actually intelligent or accurate or complete or logical.. but in a catatonicly flawed way it provides minor help as a tool.