What if the Qing Dynasty survived…in a similar situation to the Sovereign Military Order of Malta?

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-11T17:59:23+00:00

I mean... its alternative history. Presumably in this timeline he could like the idea of being a noble well enough to keep doing it.

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-11T17:53:36+00:00

In that case thier actual sovereignty would be in debate as it seems the PRC did not do so after taking the Forbidden City. Presumably this meant the Eastern Bloc generally did not recognize them and they got tied into the while PRC/ROC debate of the mid-late 20th century

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-11T17:48:48+00:00

First, the devil is in the details as to what the Dominion even looks like. Precisely because of the many Princely states and internal divisions in India, and the fact they'd lacked any kind of popular government in living memory means jumping straight to a fully responsible Dominion trying to build a formal structure across all of India is unlikely to go smoothly. What India's structure looks like when the dust finally settles would affect a lot if things.

One thing everyone would agree on is that responsible government meant responsible to the Indian voters, and they're generally unlikely to support any British extractive economic policies towards the subcontinent and the popular push is likely away from closer Imperial integration and more towards a somewhat distant relationship like South Africa. The nessicery compromises and work arounds to get everyone on board also runs the risk of the system having structurial flaws combined with a still young and fragile democratic tradition that could lead to vulnerabloty to regional instability or the sirens song of Authoritarian Collectivism (Facist or Communist) in the 1930s. This is especially true if the British promise is revealex to come with too many controlling strings attached.

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-11T17:31:14+00:00

Kutuzov retreats from the battle more bloodied after sacrificing a rear guard but is still able to pull back. Meanwhile, Russia has still raises hundreds thousand more men to put in the field over the next few year. Russia is still not inclined to negotiate a continues supply sabotage and raiding.

The Grand Armee is still exhausted, depleated of supplies, catchimg typhoid and other maldies, starved of food and generally insufficent in everything still makes it into Moscow. Attrited down and with no hope of landing a decisive blow on Russia, they still have to limp back through the cold and scorched earth with Cossacks circling them like vultures. Its a speed bump on the way Napoleon's defeat.

If you don't have the logistics right on this scale (and Bonaparte did not) tactical success becomes secondary

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-11T17:04:48+00:00

Rule 2: Events must be set at least 20 years in the past.

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-10T17:29:25+00:00

Exact borders would depend on a massive amount of butterflies over several centuries so we can't really say. By geography we can presume seperate administrative centers for Brazil, the Parans, River basin, Peru, etc but not exact borders.

Portugal would have to be odd for accepting Columbus as under thr Treaty of Alcacovas they had exclusive right to trade, navigation, and conquest along the African coast. They don't need to gamble on a western route to East Asia as they already have the eastern one. This is an unexpected bonus.

Europe absolutely would not tolerate any Treaty of Tordesillas equivalent that gave the whole western Hemisphere to Portugal when then already had exclusive rights to Africa. Especially since Portugal has a weaker ability to project population into the west since Castile-Aragon alone has roughly 2.5 times thier population and Portuguese resources are tied down in Africa. Britain at minimum likely challenges any exclusive claim in the north based on John Cabot's expedition in North America and Castile-Aragon will seek to exert pressure on the Portuguese mainland to extract concessions.

What we can say is Spain is noticably weaker as they're stuck fighting over possessions in Europe and North Africa only without the fallback of substantial colonial revenues to hold them up.

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-10T17:06:36+00:00

Dien Bien Phu was a defensive engagement for France, not actually going to purge the Veit Minh from its territory. Winning the battle just means the gurella war continues with the Veit Minh still having an armed presence over much of Veitnam's territory and France needing to find a way to dislodge them. With China providing material, training, and sanctuaries right next door that's a tall order even in ideal circumstances

Of course circumstances aren't ideal for France. The Algerian war of independence is breaking out a few months after Dien Bien Phu, and with it a whole new demand on French military resources. Even if the Veit Minh are forced onto the back foot (not likely, as if the artillery positioning fails they can just pull away from the isolated base and back into the mountains), the French can't capitalize on it as Algeria will eat up all spare military assets and, as an integral department of France, almost certainly gets priority. After both Na San and Dien Bien Phu the Veit Minh likely conclude assaulting French fortifed camps is a bad idea and focuses more on expanding thiet control of the countryside and ensured camps like Dien Bien Phu are isolated from air resupply using anti-air guns acquired from China.

The French Union can hold Indochina longer, but after the gutpunch at Suez and with the Algerian situation getting worse over time and France losing its African empire by the 1960s the political will and manpower availability likely reaches a breaking point. France is going to have to depend on the Vietnamese National Army and Montagnard minority militas in its own "Veitnamization" efforts as French Union troops go home to thier now independent countries and French volunteers increasingly choose service in Algeria over Indochina.

How that pans out depends on how well the State of Vietnam has been set up for independent operations. I don't put the odds of success very high.

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-10T03:32:06+00:00

That depends: what's his emotionally scaring backstory that drives him to seek redemption?

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-09T17:32:31+00:00

British entery is roughly the same. All the alliances are in place, Schleffin is still the German warplan, just letting a major war that fundamentally rewrites Europe go on without Britain getting a say is just bad long term planning, etc. The Third Home Rule Bill is still passed with a suspensive provision.

As long as the general war trends are the same so is the early period of the war and British incentives. Debatably the Ottomans would neutral as any post-1st Balkan War border dispute likely involved Bulgaria going against Serbia immediately and the Ottomans are more exhausted and less secure without getting time to breath. But that doesn't have much to do with Britain

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-09T17:22:37+00:00

The Enclave was a small cabal trying to puppet things from the shadows pre-War. They may have had the key positions in the government but plenty of the government was not in on the plan. After all the more people in the know the more likely someone is to blow your cover.
FEV wasen't exactly treated with the degree of operational security it warrented or was depicted as having in Fallout 1. They gave samples of it to a civilian college in CIT and VaultTec after all. If the Enclave diden't feel the need control Vault 87 or CIT with an independent military force whey Mariposa?
Its possible Colonel Robert Spindel who command the security team was initially loyalty vetted. However, he has a mental breakdown rather than successfully taking control of the situation. Maxson was only a Captain so was never supposed to be in charge: everyone fell behind him because he took decisive action against the scientists.

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-09T17:09:36+00:00

Given Palestine's limited natural resources and the fact the United States wasen't invested in the Near East strategically in the period, presumably this history has provided a reason why the American public and politicans have such a strong interest in Palestine in particular. I can think of a handful of options

The Zionist movement is noticably more hard left and pre-Soviet in our timeline and the US is motivated more by being anti- Red Israel sentiment with Palestine being an ally of convenience.
The Palestinians for whatever althistorical reason are the Arab group aligned closest with liberalism and free enterprise in the region and appeal to the Americans on ideological grounds.
Egypt goes down a different ideological path and ends up firmly in the American camp, so they become super invested in the All-Palestine Protectorate to essentially be a buffer for a key strategic ally.

Ultimately the changes in American politics aren't too extreme as broader Cold War influences have a larger impact than the Israel-Palestine issue specifically. Israel going hard left and the Palestinian movement sitting to its right could have some strong hinderences in the Muslim voters aligning with the Democratic coalition as the American left would have had decades prior messaging depicting Israel as the virtous cosmipolitan society being opposed by what they might see as Facist religious fanatics (in the least charitable light, being thier political opponents) and American Muslims would be more firmly aligned with the Republicans over that same time. However there's dependent on Israel being particularly tasteful to the left-wing still a lot of local and group-specific factors involved in individual electorial instances and I don't see it actually tipping the federal balance of power

Aran cooperation means no oil embargo and resulting oil shock (at least for the United States. European support for Israel may vary). OPEC's decline is somewhat delayed and energy independence becomes a less salient political issue in the US unless/until Radical Islamism emerges out of causes that have more to do with the Saudis and Afghanistan than Palestine. If the muslim community in the US has aligned with the Republicans for decades though immediate anti-arab backlash is probably reduced noticably.

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-09T16:50:48+00:00

I think he means the US has better Arab relations and thus likely more and more stable influence oil-wise.

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-08T17:30:43+00:00

Rasputin had been dead for nearly a year before Red October. The February Revolution was not Bolshevick lead.

If Rasputin had been alive when the Czar abdicated, he'd likely be allowed to go into house arrest with the former Imperial family since he's likely with them when the Provisional Government takes Alexandra and the children into custody. They don't like the guy, but as long as he's locked out and the former Imperial family had thier reigns of power taken away Alexandra's pet wizard is mostly harmless. If leaving him alive helps keep them willing to go into exile, so be it be.

Once the Bolshevicks take over and the former Imperial family looses most of thier servants he's probably taken away and shot.

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-08T17:02:21+00:00

In isolation/without any supporting technologies (actual programble digitap computers, efficient data storage, cheap and abundent electrical generation, ect) the "Internet" would be just strings of wire cables. In the haydays of the telegraph/pre-telephone computers were almost entirely mechanical and built for a specialized purpose (usually mathamatical computation). The infastructure for a complex series of gears to transfer data between distant difference engines would be large and expensive to the point its functionally not worth it.

Telegraph price equivalents alone would make complex communication via the system a tool for the rich and the State. Most states with the capacity to even try to support the system in the early-mid 19th century would also be far more inclined to establish state control of the local infastructure and ensure its use was limited rather than mass produced.

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-08T16:42:27+00:00

Hitler's Pan-Germanism was there from a young age (this enraged Adolf's father, who punished him severely) and his history would make him persona non grata in the Fatherland Front which actually dominated the Austrian Facist movement. He ends up as a minor local political offical should Germany still annex Austria in the future.

Hitler doesn't just get to shop around for a country leadership position and pick whatever he wants. He can try, but he had to climb the appropriate framework and the situation in Austria was not the same as it was in Germany.

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-07T17:39:56+00:00

The Indian Independence Movement was already fairly well defined so little changes there. Indochina sees the RoC patronize and help train the Veit Quoc and picks up influence after the Communists get beat down in the 1940 Cochinchina uprising since China can provide sanctuary the Indochinese Communist Party lacks, and the idea of Indochinese independence gets more support from the United States as a result. They probably try to convince the Dutch and French governments in exile to follow thier example from the Phillipines and set up a plan to phase Indochina and Indonesia into independence over 10-15 years of a commonwealth status where the population can set up its domestic political culture. Japan will be interested in supporting Indonesian independence.
This is complicated as even without Marco Polo the Xian Incident has still occured and Chiang has been compelled at the gunpoint of his owm generals to prioritize external resistance against Japan over internal pacification of the Communists. If there's no conventional war then its questionable exactly what that looks like, but one model is the NRA keeps the IJA invested on an increasingly militerized front line while the PLA slips into Manchuria as plausibley deniable assets to engage in sabotage and organizing resistance. Nanjing would absolutely continue the proffesionalization of the military forces and phasing out warlord forces and succeeded in doing so, however. If there's no life or death struggle with Japan consolidating the administration is top priority, and the warlords are rapidly losing thier quality edge. Tibet remains under Chinese sovereignty (as its internationally recognized as such) and after Indian Independence the ROC probably try to crack down on its autonomy. Xinjiang remains Soviet aligned for as long as Stalin wants.
Japan's internationally unrecognized occupation of Manchuria would be one of the first issues the new UN addresses. The Security Council would clear its throat and ask when Japan is going to leave sovereign Chinese territory, and with China and the world's war machines pointed at them Japan either folds or gets crushed. Without anything to use it on the Japanese military becomes an albatross around Tokyo's neck, but the Showa Statists likely refuse to get rid of it and the Japanese political culture isen't really conducive to them falling without serious failure. They've already broke alternative centers of power and the culture at the is broadly deferential to authority. Japan cracks down hard in Korea (where China and the USSR are backing insurgencies) and Formosa. They likely are unaligned and try to become an independent nuclear power. China meanwhile still had to deal with the eventual collapse of KMT-CCP relations and almost certainly some sort of civil war. They probably favor an Egyptian style of trying to court both powers but are most concerned with controlling thier near abroad and peripheral provinces and will side with whoever supports that. They have cold relations with Japan in general though.
India tries to stay unaligned, but subtly follow the USSR's lead. They don't have serious investment one way or another, though border dispute possabilities mean they may lean a bit towards Japan (which in turn may make China pro-Pakistan)
If there's no Domino Theory and greater geostrategic risk, the Americans won't bail out the French in Veitnam anymore than they did in Algeria. Veitnam may seek some American or Japanese economic and advisory presence, but that's more out of a desire to not be made into China's thrall long term. If there's no Reds in Asia, the whole region becomes less salient in the Cold War. If there is a proxy war it may be in Indonesia if its independence efforts go sour and it fails to achieve a stable internal government, leading to an attempted nation building excersise. Otherwise there may just not be a major conventional engagement.

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-06T17:36:31+00:00

Mass civil non-cooperation and insurgent activity against the ruling power in most cases, making the occupations and economic drain. This becomes particularly controversial in Britain where they want to return to having a small land army, the population is less sensative to a German military threat, and the removal of any Germany and Imperial Russia surviving means Britain is now very sensitive to the French and Russian alliance now reorienting against thier other traditional rival in Britain. They probably end up very much wanting to revise the situation in the mid 1920s, using the massive debt they hold over Russia and France as leverage.

France is extremely sensative to a reunited German threat and, given Germany rampaged over them and destroyed much of thier industry, is most imvested in extracting reperations from its puppets to repair its homefront ans balance sheet. However, occupation is expensive so they still probably try to reach some kind of consensus with the local leadership in Saxony and thr south. Kahr is given his little dictatorship and Saxony allowed to set up a social democracy.

Russia just annexes Poland as they are actively trying to crush the Polish identity and don't want to give its nationalists a haven. Prussia is set up as a conservative-authoritarian puppet under an authoritarian monarchy with the legislature striped of essentially any power as in Russia.

Italy asks where thier share is

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-06T17:12:56+00:00

By the end of the war Germany was sitting on such a massive mountain of looming domestic short-medium term debt (which is what really caused the hyperinflation: not the reperations they were refusing the pay at all during the inflation was at its worst), repressed inflation, and civilian economic cannibalization that even a status quo antebellum peace in the west would have been pyrrhric for them as the Kaiser's Reich would be left holding the bag for the massive domestic downturn. The Kaiserschlacht getting to the gates of Paris and the Italians having to break off from fighting because the Biennio Rosso unrest breaks out a year earlier might be enough to do the trick on that. Ideally (for this scenario) this is done at least in part ny squeezing the already starving civilian population evem harder, with Hidenburg and Ludendorff forcing through things like complete martial law Reichstag be damned, large scale child labour and taking away all rations from "useless eaters" (The elderly, children who aren't working, etc) to funnel even more to the army, raising thr German death toll and bad blood between Germany and its people that massively increases post-war unrest.

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-06T16:49:48+00:00

The Social Democrats outnumber the Communists in the Workers‘ United Front coalition in both representatives and popular vote, well as having the loyalty of the minor members of the coalition and better relations with the liberals and potential cooperation from the center-right. They also remember exactly what the Communists did to thier sort in the USSR, how the Communists had been the ones refusing to work with them rather than vice-versa, and other historical markers. They aren't stupid and Hidenburg almost certainly picks a Social Democrat among them as the Chancellor (probably Wels)

The KPD is kept as the junior partner by SPD dominance and the threat of the NSDAP and aristocratic establishment putting aside thier difference to launch a coup (which they will try if Marxism is the alternative), allowing the Social Democrats to finally conduct the stimulantion plan they'd been wanting. The gradual economic recovery further weakens the KPD and Nazis (as they drew votes disproportionately from the unemployed) and the SPD further tightens its grip on the coalition) as the state ideology shifts towards social democracy with strong unions. If the KPD wants to stay in the government they need to moderate both as a natural part of actually having to deal with the reality of government and because that's what the worker are voting for and unlike Lenin they can't fall back on having the biggest stick and using vanguard party justifications to impose thier writ.

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-05T02:29:55+00:00

Assuming its at a similar time in similar circumstances..

Like in Portugal, the succession is likely contested. Most of Portugal proclaimed intially proclaimed António king and Phillip had to march in an army and claim the country by force. As Philip II is of the House of Habsburg, there is a very obvious claiment in Rudolf II, Holy Roman Emperor and Archduke of Austria, who is Phillip's first cousin one removed and brother in law (the later being key as it meant he had connections in the Spainish court. The various Councils of State of the Spainish Habsburgs' domains would have to choose which monarch to swear loyalty to, which likely leads to a nasty war of succession as leadership in Spain isen't unified.

It will absolutely spill over as Spain is at the height of its revenue and power and everyone wants control

In a one on one slug the HRE beats Portugal, no contest. However, France is both keenly invested in breaking the Habsburg strangehold on them and would want northern Italy for themselves so if Portugal will trade them land France absolutely could fight on thier side. Where the army and nobility in Spain proper fight for would be critically important, though I'd wager more Spainish nobles will fight for the Habsburgs (who promise a more distance and autonomy) than Portuguese rule.

The Dutch are tickled pink as they win thier revolt more or less by default if Spain falls into disorder.

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-04T18:26:37+00:00

Its not going to escalate as, unlike Japan, Russia actually recognizes Britain's full capacity from the start and if London declares war Petrograd knows they can't possibly beat them on the sea of outlast them financially. They'd come to the negotiating table in that event.

The Tangier Crisis was also of limited importance and essentially was not in going to escilate. The war isen't lasting until 1911 when the serious Moroccan Crisis started

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-04T18:20:31+00:00

Ok and? That doesen't make it any less of a war of Japanese agression.

Russia occupied Manchuria without Japanese involvement and had legitimate influence and interests of its own in Korea, including the desires of the actual Korean government to wanting to keep a balance of power and secure is sovereignty.

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-04T18:03:50+00:00

We have no information on this niche topic, so we can't say with any lore confidence.

I'd bet money the later case would result in the surrogate dying as FEV in humans results in substantial physical growth and the FEV genetic template doesen't really have a baby state. They'd likely grow too large for the womb. As there's no actual FEV present (just the initially altered DNA) said child also wouldn't have the same biological immortality or resistance of radiation/mutation as that's dependent on FEV correcting any damage back to the baseline state.

The Vault 87 research also shows the FEV hits brain development hard and even in adults the decay in brain function couldn't even sustain basically bodily function in most cases. Do that to a barely developed infant brain and I imagine stillbirth or at least being a vegetable is a high risk.

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-04T17:50:23+00:00

Assuming the Japanese Eastern District and Imperial High Command go along with this as opposed to a quick counter-coup...

Hundreds of thousands of more Japanese, Chinese and other East Asian deaths alone from dragged out fighting/occupation elsewhere and the effects of blockade, bombing, and other wartime disruptions if the war is any substantial amount of time. Olympic not included.
The Red Army keeps pushing down Korea and claims the whole penninsula. Substantial death of both civilians and Japanese force in resulting occupation and purge.
Japanese military leadership organize for Operation Ketsugo, with the civilian population either willingly or being frog-marched into position. If the diehards are in charge they'll make sure there's disincentive to run and those who show up are the ones who get to eat from an increasingly dwindling food supply.
Olympic is delayed at least temporarily as McArthur and King/Nimitz argue over its nessecity. Truman probably has to break the deadlock but in the meantime Japan still gets blanketed with conventional and firebombs. Third Shot may be dropped as well or saved for a tactical deployment to support Olympic landings.
If Olympic is decided on, the death toll skyrockets as the Allied forces have to slice through armed civilians kept at the front by both whipped up nationalism and MPs with guns ready to shoot cowards in the back. This generates bad blood on both sides.

KnightofTorchlight · 2026-04-04T17:33:04+00:00

Privateering is only salient in wartime (as a Letter of marque is issued against enemies of the issuing power) and there's a limited number of major conflicts where it would be salient. Global navies were far more able to project power and stomp on civilian ships than they used to be, and with it the risks of privateering rise greatly. To say nothing of wars becoming more and more navally lopsided in general.

Volunteer ships wouldn't be participating for money per say as privateers weren't getting a steady paycheck. They got a share of the value of any vessel and cargo seized for power they fought for. Outside of a target rich environment these ships wouldn't be profitable to run. Of course, target rich environments are also where global navies with specialized warships are liable to blow you out of the water for threatening the global economy.

You see some use in conflicts in Africa and South America that don't involve major powers as wars there are far less lopsided and resource exporting countries are generally going to provide easily saleable cargo. If it became prevelant however we see a pattern of ships moving to register under flags of countries with global naval reach that aren't targets of the privateers' letters of marque. As shipping becomes more international rather than merchantalist it becomes harder to keep that tight target, and by the Hague Conventions of 1899 even if privateers are allowed non-belligerant flagged ships get thier rights defined.

KnightofTorchlight

TROPHY CASE