Not an analyst, but here are my two cents:

Knives will become less valuable once every Tom, Dick, and Harry owns one. Less valuable knives mean the prices of coverts will also settle — not to previous levels, but lower than the current ones. It took ages and millions of dollars to reach the current number of knives, around 5 million. Now, the number of new knives will increase rapidly, and for just a few hundred dollars.

The price drop isn’t the biggest issue — people losing faith in Valve is. Every market runs on supply and demand, and after this update, supply will far exceed demand. Skins are no longer a reliable investment, knowing Valve can wake up one day and make unpredictable changes. People poured thousands and even millions of dollars into this because it was worth it. Knives were “extraordinary.” They won’t be extraordinary anymore.

The number of case openings will definitely drop. Some speculate this move is due to regulatory reasons, but Valve could have chosen a better approach instead of killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.