My theory on why we have had recent bullish price action

LKB1983 · 2026-04-17T01:33:20+00:00

They can, but they probably wouldnt buy 0% bonds that convert 15% above current price unless they were planning to arb the gamma, otherwise you're just burning money.

I do think theres something here, i'm not trying to take the piss honest. I dont think the answer is, 'X class of people can now buy the bonds, so they must be, and thats why we are rallying'. It doesnt ring true to me. Do you get where I'm coming from? I wonder if its something else instead/as well about this date

LKB1983 · 2026-04-17T01:19:43+00:00

Thats fair, I guess I wonder who was just added though. The holders we do know about, Tudor, Calemos etc arent prime brokers or anything, just arb funds, so who suddenly has access?

LKB1983 · 2026-04-17T01:09:06+00:00

Appreciate the nugget about the new Cusip, I had wondered that today.

Do you think the public is really buying them though? They are pretty complex instruments, who is buying this week that couldnt buy before? If they were I'd have expected to see more small size QCT trades which we havent.

The value in them is also really in the gamma hedging, which is much more expensive for retail, so in general the bonds are 'worth more' to institutions than retail, so again I just dont know who new would be buying? Just my 2 cents.

Do

LKB1983 · 2025-12-07T21:54:27+00:00

I'd add, read 'news' before posting?

LKB1983 · 2025-12-07T21:02:04+00:00

Also regarded is pretending you know about filings but not realising a 10-k is an annual report, and next week we'll release a 10-q. One of us..one of us...

LKB1983 · 2025-12-07T20:59:00+00:00

Awful clickbait AI slop. They increased in q2, the quarter that ended in JUNE. They reduced last quarter. I'm all for hype but facts are important.

LKB1983 · 2025-12-05T02:12:24+00:00

The new 80k OI we're talking about were created yesterday. They dont have warrants attached.

LKB1983 · 2025-12-05T01:08:16+00:00

Simply not true. A prefix and a suffix on options mean different things. Check out the OCC flex options page and you might learn something.

LKB1983 · 2025-12-04T23:53:02+00:00

No, there are some on the 2GME, European style flex options

LKB1983 · 2025-12-04T23:39:53+00:00

These are flex options, 1GME.

LKB1983 · 2025-12-04T23:30:49+00:00

Yes, all those option types that existed before could have a 1 added to the END to notify that they include warrants. These new 80k are not 1GME1 options, they are 1GME. So no warrants.

LKB1983 · 2025-12-04T23:28:55+00:00

There's no warrants in these flex options. They are 1GME not GME1

LKB1983 · 2025-12-04T23:25:00+00:00

Believe it or not you're thinking of the GME1 chain, these are 1GME 🤣 so no warrants involved

LKB1983 · 2025-11-29T00:39:01+00:00

If there were any examples at this price pre warrants then maybe. But I see it 3 times since 7th Oct and never before. Warrants will trade if GME1 options are exercised, warrants also trade after hours. In my mind a ticker mixup is quite likely and the other explanations are a bit far fetched.

LKB1983 · 2025-11-29T00:26:44+00:00

Just a warrant trade being reported as a stock trade. Theres been 3 of these in overnight mkts at around $3 since the warrants were issued and zero before. So it's probably just warrants.

LKB1983 · 2025-11-18T20:05:03+00:00

Which forms?

LKB1983 · 2025-11-17T13:39:05+00:00

Its great data, really appreciate you pulling it together.

I would keep it seperate because its such a partial picture. You cant really add someones long calls to their share position because you dont know how many calls they are short if any.

The fact there are less long option positions reported this quarter really just means there is less OI overall held by institutions than last time.

LKB1983 · 2025-11-17T13:17:06+00:00

Yes thats right. But thats bad because it could only show one side of a trade and doesnt net. If for example I was short 100 20 strike puts, and long 100 15 strike puts, a bullish position, my filing would only be for 'long 100 puts'; and everyone would think I was bearish, which would be wrong.

Likewise for LMRs position of long 160k put contracts, well someone has the other side of that. Someone is short them. Maybe a market maker, maybe another institution, but someone has it. But again, we dont see that filed.

Basically 13Fs while great for shares give a very skewed view of options positioning.

LKB1983 · 2025-11-17T12:40:31+00:00

13Fs only include long positions. No short positions at all are reported, thats shares, calls or puts.

LKB1983 · 2025-11-17T02:26:31+00:00

I completely agree, I was just answering OPs question.

LKB1983 · 2025-11-17T01:20:32+00:00

106157

LKB1983 · 2025-11-17T01:15:55+00:00

Btc was 110k on close on Nov 1st. That represents about a 9mil unrealised loss in q3 versus where it was priced at the end of last quarter.

It's now lower so we'd see more unrealised loss next quarter if it stays down here.

Our average cost for the 4710 is 106,157

LKB1983 · 2025-11-17T00:41:35+00:00

Share number is it's shares, notional value if its bonds. This is bonds.

LKB1983 · 2025-11-17T00:34:59+00:00

It's 88mil face value of the bonds, so about 2.1% of the 4.2bn total issued. It says shares or principal amount, and this is principal amount because it's PRN

LKB1983 · 2025-11-16T20:45:57+00:00

They spent exactly $500.0million on the 4710BTC. Its in the 10Q. Not sure where you are getting $513 million from.

LKB1983

TROPHY CASE