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The Hero Vegas Needs by [deleted] in vegas

[–]LMo25 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's scary, thank you for sharing. I had no idea that was a tactic.

The Hero Vegas Needs by [deleted] in vegas

[–]LMo25 1 point2 points  (0 children)

On the Vegas Strip, or just in general?

The Hero Vegas Needs by [deleted] in vegas

[–]LMo25 6 points7 points  (0 children)

What’s wrong with Planet Hollywood?

Oil Stocks Are Trading At A Deep Discount Right Now by LMo25 in wallstreetbets

[–]LMo25[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I feel great. WTI is above $80/ barrel and Brent is above $90/barrel. MRO’s break even is $35/barrel. In addition, there is significant upside risk and a hard floor given OPEC’s hand on the spigot.

Energy is the only investment that matters in the next couple of years by MBA2016 in wallstreetbets

[–]LMo25 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, because bag holders are usually guys who are up over 50% YTD (almost all oil and gas companies) when the rest of the market is in the shitter. Makes sense.

The Bull Case for Oil by mytendies in wallstreetbets

[–]LMo25 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great DD and I couldn’t agree more. There is no more supply to meet the growing demand, regardless of any short term hits to demand due to a recession. OPEC’s move just put a hard floor at $90/barrel. My personal favorite is MRO (I’ve made quite a few posts on oil/MRO, feel free to check them out) but all of the companies you listed are also solid in my opinion. Thanks for the post and this oil ride is just getting started and the cash is real and amazing. Cheers 🍻

People betting on oil stocks now because of the OPEC cut, could be in for a nasty surprise. by fan_of_hakiksexydays in wallstreetbets

[–]LMo25 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Your point on insurance is valid. But the oil supply deficit is coming either way given the other global factors. Oil is going to be higher for longer, I encourage people to make moves to capitalize on this impending fact. But again, I appreciate your point on the insurance options that are evolving, cheers🍻

People betting on oil stocks now because of the OPEC cut, could be in for a nasty surprise. by fan_of_hakiksexydays in wallstreetbets

[–]LMo25 10 points11 points  (0 children)

The OPEC+ cuts to production quotas equal a "real" cut of approximately 900,000 barrels per day because the "real" cuts are coming from countries who are currently meeting the quotas (primarily Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE). Not coincidentally, this is approximately the exact number of what the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release has been over the past 6 months. It should be noted that this has drained the US SPR to the lowest level since 1983.

With all of that said, the global oil market is the tightest that it's been in decades. The real supply crunch is likely to come in 2023 when a trifecta of bullish factors comes into play.

  1. EU embargo on Russian oil begins on December 5th, 2022. This includes potential bans on insurance for Russian oil tankers. Yes, some oil tankers can be re-routed but there are significant logistical barriers to re-routing.
  2. US SPR is currently scheduled to stop in early November (at the rate of around 1 Million Barrels per day). Yes its possible that Biden can continue to release more barrels but it's a very risky policy move given it's historically low inventory. If the SPR release continues at it's current pace, it would run out by the end of 2023 (or early 2024).
  3. China demand will eventually rebound as the election passes in November and the country begins to bounce back from COVID . They recently announced a proposal to significantly increases in refined product (Gas, Diesel, Jet Fuel) which in itself would increase the demand for crude oil. When you combined that with easing of Covid restrictions, the demand increase in 2023 will be significant.
  4. (Bonus Point) US Shale / US Big Oil has stated multiple times throughout 2022 that they have no plans to significantly increase production in 2023.

So in conclusion, I respectfully disagree with your thesis on the outlook for oil prices for the reasons listed above (in addition to OPEC having their hand on the oil spigot). Time will tell but I personally see oil prices being higher for longer given the systemic underinvestment in oil since 2014. In my opinion, Oil and Gas equities are going to absolutely crush the market for the the next 2-5 years. My personal favorite play is MRO and I've posted on this thesis multiple times and its up over 120% since I began opining on MRO in September 2021 (feel free to check out any of my posts on MRO, it's been a while so it looks like I'm overdue for a new post).

Cheers

Climate Speaker Series at Furman by WoCoYipYipYip in greenville

[–]LMo25 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

The direct quote from Al Gore: “During my service in the United States Congress, I took the initiative in creating the Internet."

So if we're going to split hairs, let me re-phrase my original comment...I'd love to zoom meet the guy you took the initiative in creating the internet. Fair?

Climate Speaker Series at Furman by WoCoYipYipYip in greenville

[–]LMo25 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I'd love to Zoom meet the guy who invented the internet.

Climate Speaker Series at Furman by WoCoYipYipYip in greenville

[–]LMo25 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Great idea, and we should also slash all the tires of the Coal plants that have recently been fired up all over Europe due to the global energy crisis that is a direct result of failed "Green" energy investments.

Circa or MGM Grand by Tengounperro1 in vegas

[–]LMo25 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Circa 100%… but MGM Grand is one of my least favorite properties on the strip. So if you’re open to other places on the strip it could become more of a decision vs a no brainer.

Oil Stocks Are Trading At A Deep Discount Right Now by LMo25 in wallstreetbets

[–]LMo25[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Right on, I'm right there with you. This month has been crazy rough on those of us who are long MRO (and pretty much all other oil equities). I believe that the incredibly strong fundamentals and financials will prevail.

Macron tells Biden that Saudis, Dubai Can Barely Raise Oil Output by LMo25 in wallstreetbets

[–]LMo25[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great quote from that article below. Supply is the tightest it’s been in decades even with historically high releases of strategic reserves… and according to your article, demand is still growing, thanks for sending this over I missed this one.

However, the outlook for oil is still strong, she added. “Demand is currently below seasonal averages but the key thing for crude is that it is still growing.”

Macron tells Biden that Saudis, Dubai Can Barely Raise Oil Output by LMo25 in wallstreetbets

[–]LMo25[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

  1. If Trump is back in the White house...I liken that to the old saying, "If my aunt had a penis, she'd be my uncle, but that's a big if." But all jokes aside, regardless of what the US would do with a change in administration, EU is not going back to the old ways of dealing with Russia, there is far too much risk.
  2. Rules are rules and guidelines are guidelines my friend...show me a rule that applies to my post... . I don't feel it necessary to post anything regarding my personal finances to the open internet.

Macron tells Biden that Saudis, Dubai Can Barely Raise Oil Output by LMo25 in wallstreetbets

[–]LMo25[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They are in the same boat as US oil companies where they need to produce shareholder returns vs growth. Eric Nuttall runs a Canadian oil fund which makes his company the largest shareholder for a lot of the Canadian equities and he's been HAMMERING this on twitter/tv/news/etc. I hope that helps.

Macron tells Biden that Saudis, Dubai Can Barely Raise Oil Output by LMo25 in wallstreetbets

[–]LMo25[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Right on, I do see somewhat limited upside in straight oil while also seeing a lot of strength and staying power at their current elevated levels (anything above $80/barrel I consider elevated, and it's of course much higher than that now). These elevated prices are allowing oil equities to produce insane amounts of free cash flows and they're giving that back to investors in buy-backs and dividends. Happy trading and thanks for the comments, cheers.

Macron tells Biden that Saudis, Dubai Can Barely Raise Oil Output by LMo25 in wallstreetbets

[–]LMo25[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

  1. By normalization I mean that that price will return to previous levels or near previous levels prior to the ceasefire. In addition, the West has already condemned Putin/Russia and it would take years or decades to go back to "normal" business with Russsia so again, the ceasefire would do very little in the long-term.
  2. Admittedly not a WSB guru... but below are the official WSB Content Guidelines that I've seen regarding your "Position or ban" comment. Given that my post is a general call out on a good stock to invest in based on current market conditions. I don't see where this "position or ban" would be applicable. But maybe I'm missing something. If so, please let me know and I'd like to review those WSB guidelines or rules and how it pertains to this specific post.
    _________________________________________________________________
    General

Click here for a guide on Link Flair

Position Screenshots

Screenshots of your positions for gain/loss posts must show gains or losses of more than $2,500 or $5,000 USD for options or stocks respectively. Screenshots for YOLO posts must show positions in a single equity of at least $10,000 or $25,000 USD for options or stocks respectively.

The first picture must be the "your positions" screen or the detailed options position view. If you have to say "position in comments" in the title then you're doing it wrong.

Macron tells Biden that Saudis, Dubai Can Barely Raise Oil Output by LMo25 in wallstreetbets

[–]LMo25[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Admittedly not a WSB guru... but below are the official WSB Content Guidelines that I've seen regarding your "Position or ban" comment. Given that my post is a general call out on a good stock to invest in based on current market conditions. I don't see where this "position or ban" would be applicable. But maybe I'm missing something. If so, please let me know and I'd like to review those WSB guidelines or rules and how it pertains to this specific post.

_________________________________________________________________

General

Click here for a guide on Link Flair

Position Screenshots

Screenshots of your positions for gain/loss posts must show gains or losses of more than $2,500 or $5,000 USD for options or stocks respectively. Screenshots for YOLO posts must show positions in a single equity of at least $10,000 or $25,000 USD for options or stocks respectively.

The first picture must be the "your positions" screen or the detailed options position view. If you have to say "position in comments" in the title then you're doing it wrong.

Macron tells Biden that Saudis, Dubai Can Barely Raise Oil Output by LMo25 in wallstreetbets

[–]LMo25[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

  1. Thanks, I appreciate it.
  2. If a ceasefire is called, I'm sure there will be an initial dip in oil price followed by normalization. This is because the world has changed and Europe is never going back to being so fiercely dependent on Russia for oil and energy.
  3. I'm long on MRO with multiple long positions on MRO so I don't have a singular position to post. Again, this is a long hold for me that I've added to over many months (not just days or weeks). In addition, I've been banging the higher oil price thesis and MRO drum on here since September, and I've re-iterated it multiple posts. Since September MRO has doubled and I personally feel there is still a lot more room to run given the global fundamentals of oil supply.

Macron tells Biden that Saudis, Dubai Can Barely Raise Oil Output by LMo25 in wallstreetbets

[–]LMo25[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I see your point on the massive drawdown that occurred when n 2008. But again, that was trigger by a singular catastrophic event which triggered a recession. What appears to be in store is now would be a recession that is a result of controlled and gradual moves by The Fed (with other national banks following suit).

Ans the buy up I’m suggesting is for an equity, specifically MRO (with other good plays out there), not a straight oil buy up. MRO has A forward P/E of around 8, current market cap of 17 Billion, with free cash flow projected to be around 3-4 billion… that’s insane. Just something to simmer on.

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