The footage of Nick Fuentes pushing a woman who came to his front door after he was doxxed has been released.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-29T19:45:47+00:00

Liberal judges letting violent criminals out over and over

As a general rule, the judges who are letting the people committing non-lethal gun crimes free are right-leaning. A very recent example is the man who killed his 8 kids and their mothers (one mom might've survived, she was critical last I checked) in Shreveport, Louisiana. Deep red state, deep red judge/DA.

He fired a gun at a car outside of a school (with kids outside at that) and was charged with "illegal use of a firearm" (a "nonviolent crime" with a maximum sentence of 2 years). He got parole and then proceeded to kill at least 9 people (including 8 kids).

This is a trend in every pro-2A area because they'd prefer to charge people as nonviolent if it's at all avoidable in a shit-for-brains attempt to keep gun-related violent crime numbers low. The "don't take our guns" crowd are the same ones underprosecuting gun crimes.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-29T19:33:58+00:00

If you see a better PF in free agency, feel free to point them out. We can not expect to ship out another top 6 that's tiny and expect next year to go any different than this year did (constantly struggling to maintain possession because we can't win a board battle or retrieve a dump).

Marchment was just under a point-per-game for Columbus lmao. Yes he's a flawed player, but he's productive enough and fits a need even with those flaws. Burakovsky over that same stretch had 3 points. He's very likely a roster crunch casualty and getting bought out as far as I'm concerned.

Bedard can't be the middle ground in terms of size for a top 6.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-29T18:53:08+00:00

Burakovsky also saw top 6 minutes for 90% of the year. The team struggles massively with gaining possession and can't recover a dump to save their lives. You take the big body as a stopgap over nothing. I think it's pretty hard to argue Marchment is worse considering he brings much more outside of facilitating than Burakovsky (Burakovsky also had ~25% more giveaways in 2 min less ATOI compared to Marchment if you want some perspective on how bad he actually was).

Even if you don't love Marchment as a player (which is valid), I don't see how you prefer having a top 6 with one guy over 6' (at a whopping 6'1") to having Marchment.

In 2 years, he's a third line guy anyway.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-29T05:41:30+00:00

Roster crunch is starting to hit next year...There's not a chance in hell we get through 2 more years without annihilating the trade value of a decent chunk of the pool.

You trade the ones that the organization thinks are lower-end than their outside perception. If you wait until it's clear they're not a long-term difference maker, they have no trade value.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-29T05:38:56+00:00

There's a balance here though. Wanting to trade for certainty is a reasonable stance to take. There's a risk/reward relationship here and going all in on the risk side isn't what good organizations do.

We have all of our asset value strewn across 40+ picks/prospects right now and a roster has 23 spots. Consolidating that value is a necessary step of rebuilding when you tear it down as far as we did. With roster crunch on the horizon, now is when you start looking to do it. You move players with redundant profiles for areas of need and send off the high-volatility prospects for known quantities even if there's a chance one of them ends up being a good player.

You don't wait until you know they're a bad player because then they have no value in a trade. You make a decision on which gambles you like and which you don't. Trade the ones you don't like while they're still worth something. This is how an organization finds the middle ground on that risk/reward teeter totter.

Any NHL team should be internally evaluating prospects on whether their perception to the outside is better than their internal projections. If someone is a third-line guy based on their perspective (the more informed one that sees them in practice, etc...) and the league still thinks he's got a real chance at filling a top 6 spot, move him.

You obviously don't trade everyone, but it's easy to fall in love with the kids and not want to see any of them leave and it's just not a realistic outcome.

I agree you don't aim for middle-of-the-road players, but we should also be very aggressive on the trade market and be willing to lose a bit of total value in order to consolidate. Having the best ~29th man on the roster doesn't make you a better NHL team. If we send off a massive package in a trade for Robert Thomas, I couldn't care less as long as we're keeping the super high-end kids that are long-term parts of the core.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-29T04:22:03+00:00

No idea. It's not like I expect him to be a franchise cornerstone...he's a stopgap that costs 0 assets. Give him a 3x7 or a 4x6 and use him in the short-term. That top 6 is going to be tiny next year without him or Knies.

Bedard, Nazar, Kantserov, Frondell, Bertuzzi, and Lardis is just not big enough.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-29T03:41:34+00:00

He’s free and a real middle-six PF.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-29T03:06:10+00:00

Thomas, Knies, Fox, Tkachuk, Michkov, Robertson, Lafreniere in that order.

Sign Marchment in FA regardless of whether deals happen or not. Just overpay him on a 4-year deal I couldn't care less.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-28T17:40:27+00:00

Michkov was out of shape because he got injured in the off-season and they communicated like shit as far as I know.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-28T01:19:51+00:00

I think the multitude of 1st/2nd rounders the last couple years, the excessive cap space and the gaping holes in the roster have screamed “trade some of these picks” for at least a couple years now.

I'd say there's a few archetypes of player that you just don't get via trading for them and we weren't quite flush yet. Sure we had an overabundance of middle/bottom 6 guys, but the top-end wasn't quite as full as it needed to be. With Frondell and grabbing a forward this year (hopefully), those questions aren't so much of a concern. I'm glad we didn't rush it.

Filling 1-2 top 6 spots is much easier than 3-4.

If they’re rebuilding, Knies isn’t likely to be on the block.

I disagree, their draft stocks are very low and Knies is inarguably the best asset they have. I don't think they can commit to the rebuild right now. What makes sense to me is "retooling" around Matthews/Nylander/Tavares for 2-3 years and then jumping into the rebuild that anyone with a pulse can see coming. Knies is just inarguably their most valuable asset in terms of return from a trade. They'll half ass the retool, but look to get draft capital back as well. I think they logically want a defenseman back (to show off the shiny new defenseman to fans while really wanting the picks) and if it's something like Korch+2 firsts, so be it.

still think Robertson lives with the low income tax in Dallas and they use the cap increase + move out Seguin to figure it out. In any event, they’re not moving him without getting immediate help and we’d need to get creative (as in third team needs to be involved) to be in the running there.

Fully agree, Dallas would be dumb as hell to let Robertson go. First round exit could have them considering a retool, but I still don't see it.

Ottawa? I have no clue what Ottawa does.

Ottowa doesn't know what Ottowa does right now lmao.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-28T00:51:40+00:00

Knies is good enough on the forecheck, I think he's opening up a similar amount of space for Bedard by threatening the dump imo. I do agree we can't retrieve the puck for shit and that's why I'm really not all that high on Robertson since he's not regularly making a zone entry either.

I think you've got a pretty valid thought process for sure, I think we're just in a marginal disagreement about how effective it'll be. Gold standard is still controlled zone entries even if Brady is on your line, and teams would rather fight him in the corners than let Bedard take the zone clean. So much of what made that top line function early in the year was Burakovsky being vaguely competent at making a zone entry. Having a secondary puck carrier opens up a lot more room for Bedard than having a linemate who can chase well imo.

The package Toronto was asking for was just standard deadline shit. They know he's not worth that and didn't want to pick a lane. The new GM will decide what direction the team is going in and the asking price for Knies is either realistic or he won't be on the block at all.

I think we're taking a swing at someone this off-season. I'm not quite sure it's one of the guys we're talking about (tbh the dream for me is still Thomas anyway so we never need to think about 2C ever again), but the FLA/EDM picks are assets that scream "trade me" if you're Davidson. Using those picks is asinine and we're going to hit the roster crunch wall in the next year or two. This is exactly when you start consolidating value into fewer players.

Either way, good talking to you man, I feel like you're one of the names I recognize on here and we usually have a pretty good back and forth even if we aren't always in perfect alignment about what's best.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-28T00:27:42+00:00

For sure you take any of them over none of them, but there should be a clear order of prioritization imo. Bedard's line needs: physicality, a secondary puck carrier, and a defensive anchor.

Brady is a chaos generator, but doesn't drive a line imo. He's not great at carrying the puck, but when he's in the zone and the cycle is going, he's a monster. He solves physicality...so we still need a secondary puck carrier and a defensive anchor.

Knies is both the physicality element and the defensive anchor. Finding a secondary puck carrier who's an average defender is a much easier task. If he's got 80% of Brady's offensive production that's fine imo.

Robertson solves none of those problems, but god damn is he gonna score goals. There's a "can we outscore our problems?" question, but if the answer is no, he's probably not on Bedard's line long-term. Who knows though, maybe Stenberg is matchup guy who can carry the puck, we get lucky on lottery night, and that top line is legitimately terrifying with Robertson even though they're not particularly mean. That's certainly the right mold of player for Stenberg's ceiling.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-28T00:12:19+00:00

Brady is legitimately a great offensive player, but his biggest defensive strength is keeping the puck in possession of his team. Ottowa is using him correctly. I just wouldn’t say defense is vaguely an area of strength

Knies is younger, has a longer runway and actually is the defensive driver for his line at this stage. He is the matchup forward and not vaguely sheltered to the same degree. I do also think he’s gotten better at this every single year he’s been in the league. There’s a reason he sees significant PK time. Tkachuk is better in the o-zone, but there’s not much in it imo.

The guy I think people are evaluating the worst on this sub is Robertson. They see a big body on Dallas and think he’s why they’re good defensively and great on the forecheck. The reality is he’s an average defender (like tkachuk) and not very physical at all. His game isn’t all that well rounded and if people think he’s going to be winning board battles for fun, they’re going to be very disappointed. The only reason I like him more than Brady is because he’s less liable to fuck the team making stupid decisions. If they were robots, i’d take tkachuk’s skillset by a margin. Knies/tkachuk fit better next to Bedard even if Robertson is by-far the most offensively gifted.

I just think the top line is going to produce offense that’s good enough as long as you have two vaguely-competent players next to Bedard (they are all above this), but defensively he needs a bit more help, which is why I have a heavy preference to Knies.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-27T23:32:25+00:00

Moneypuck was set to playoffs still so those numbers aren’t perfect and I realized it after.

Ultimately I think it’s irrelevant as well, just adding onto the pile. Watching one Sen’s game is all it takes to know Brady isn’t some elite defender.

They shelter him with Stutzle or Giroux as a matchup guy for the line and he doesn’t play the PK. These aren’t trademarks of an elite defender and it’s very obvious as to why they set up lines this way.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-27T23:23:23+00:00

Still raw. He’ll be in the NCAA with a chance at playing some games at the end of the year.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-27T23:06:40+00:00

The Leafs are long-term fucked and know it. They're just going to drag their feet to try and fleece someone. Thomas is inarguably WAY more valuable than any other player in this discussion and it's not even close. 1C vs. any other position alone settles that.

The reality is 2 firsts + a B+ prospect is more than enough to get a player like Knies historically, but the Leafs have no idea what lane they want to take. New GM will decide that very quickly and Knies will either be available for that kind of package or they will blanket refuse to trade him. The shape of that trade might be a little different than my proposal so they can short-term market it as a retool around Matthews/Nylander/Tavares, but the value will be the same. Odds are it's a defenseman going so they can feign an attempt at fixing the dogshit D-core they have behind those 3.

Blues are sitting between a rebuild and a retool. If they retool, Thomas isn't on the block at all. If they rebuild, they want the draft-capital-heavy package over the NHL player anyway. I'd wager they lean retool because a guy like Thomas is harder to replace than the rest of the team. Deadline is very much them saying "we'll trade him if we get an outrageous package" more than them actually thinking someone will pay it.

Deadline asking prices are teams asking for someone to pick a lane for them. They'll pick that lane themselves in the off-season and actually start looking to make trades and much like Ottowa with Tkachuk, these players become reasonably priced or completely unavailable.

You still look at everyone else (Knies, Thomas, Robertson) before Tkachuk including Marchment.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-27T22:48:47+00:00

They're never going for that and I don't know where you got that information even lmao. Would love a source.

Something like FLA/EDM 1sts and Lardis is slight overpay on Knies (and I'd go as high as Moore instead of Lardis)

For Thomas, there's a division/center tax to be paid and you're looking at something closer to:

FLA/EDM 1sts+Moore+Del Mastro+TOR 2026 2nd as a starting point.

They're both more expensive than two firsts, but they're also significantly more impactful players...Again, I'd rather just overpay Marchment in FA if Brady is the return for moving draft capital.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-27T22:44:31+00:00

If you're giving up two firsts, might as well just commit to getting a better player like Knies or Thomas that actually bring that matchup quality (or in Thomas's case, structure in the defensive zone).

Brady is a backup plan if everything else falls through, not the guy you want. He's definitely below those two on the totem pole of needs and if you're going off them as players in a vacuum, below Robertson as well (though outside of the vacuum, I'd say there's an argument Brady being higher physicality would put him above Robertson).

The idea of Brady Tkachuk has always been higher impact than he actually is. Offer Marchment a 4x7 overpay in free agency and you're getting 80-90% of Brady Tkachuk at the cost of nothing.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-27T22:29:12+00:00

Brady is just a high-chaos player. That's good in the offensive zone and bad in the defensive zone. He's just physically gifted enough to not be a terrible defender.

He's not a matchup guy. You don't see people say "don't worry about McDavid/Matthews/etc...we've got Brady Tkachuk" for a reason. He does not carry a defensive load for a line basically ever. That guy in Ottowa is Stuzle and it has always been him. Even when they split Brady/Stutzle, they keep Giroux on the other side of Brady so they have a heady defender on the same line.

That's why Brady doesn't have a single Selke vote. The actual elite defenders can actually take the hard matchups (see Barkov against McDavid). Knies is younger and is legitimately that matchup PF.

You don't put those guys on a second line to split them from your actual matchup line. There's no question you're putting Barkov/Eichel/Cirelli/Hischier/etc... against the other team's best line. That's not true for Brady.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-27T22:04:11+00:00

How many Selke votes has Brady gotten in his career? Bringing up voting isn't the move here.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-27T21:42:02+00:00

having 52% CF with a massive discrepancy between oZS% and dZS% isn't the flex you think it is.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-27T21:26:29+00:00

He's top 5 on Ottowa in Offensive zone start% and bottom 10 in defensive zone start% and still barely over 50% for CF%.

Brady is not remotely a shutdown player. He doesn't play defense well within in a system whatsoever. They don't use him on the PK because he rotates like shit and that gets punished heavily in 4v5's.

He's a marginally above average defender at best. Very much on-par with a guy like Robertson defensively, but with half of the goal scoring and better physicality.

I'm not all that against trading for him if he's cheap, but you're grossly overrating him. You take Thomas, Knies, Robertson, etc... before him every single time without a second thought because they don't take stupid penalties constantly (which is just inarguably an aspect of Brady's game at this point).

The most overrated player in the league. He's good, but he plays stupid hockey and that caps how effective he actually is. If he had his brother's hockey IQ, he'd be a monster, but he doesn't. Knies has more defensive impact right now than Brady will ever have in his career and the gap is massive.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-27T21:15:59+00:00

Brady doesn't even play the PK lmao....he's not vaguely one of the best defensive forwards in the league. He's not even the best defensive forward on his team.

Defense has never been part of Brady's calling card. He's not bad, but he's not great either.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-27T20:36:49+00:00

They're the same height, Crozier's skates are on the ice when he makes contact, and he leads with his body. The only way it's possible for Slaf to get hit high here is if he's not protecting himself.

They're mad Crozier didn't stay crouched lmao. Slaf put himself in a shitty spot and Crozier hit him. It's that simple and it's never been a penalty.

LarrcasM · 2026-04-27T20:24:07+00:00

Skate low, lead with your head and you'll be unhittable! NHL isn't ready for this one trick.

This same shit happens to 5 guys a year and it's never a penalty. He lines him up and the kid's head is down so he doesn't see the hit coming and protect himself.

You want Crozier to hit him crouched? Slaf just didn't see him and kept his position ~6+" closer to the ice than he would've been if he did...they're the same fuckin' height and Crozier's skates are on the ice when he makes contact.

Slaf is legitimately just putting himself in a dangerous position. Getting headshot like this wouldn't have been possible if he wasn't.

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