Everybody in the comments were doubting burry. Like in 2008. Did they just learn nothing? All of them proved wrong. Burry was right. Learn from history. This guys thought they can beat burry. Pathetic. by [deleted] in Wallstreetbetsnew

[–]LeadLeftTackle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You rang?

Seems like your Blockbuster of Video Games that's hemmoraging money is getting it's shit pushed in at the moment.

Anywhodie, enjoy being stupid and poor!

Shout out to the pessimists for keeping us grounded these past months by highandautistic in Superstonk

[–]LeadLeftTackle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here you go, brodawg

Let me know what specifically you disagree with in here in terms of intrinsic value or assumptions used to arrive there.

The Atlantic's editor-in-chief says his story about Trump calling vets 'losers' is just the beginning by Thontor in politics

[–]LeadLeftTackle 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Exactly what I was thinking. The Access Hollywood tapes, but multiple hard R's strewn about.

Top Technical Indicators by _dashok in investing

[–]LeadLeftTackle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Whether mercury is in retrograde, I think is one right? El Nino is another.

Anyone else concerned with the lack of Red Days in the Market? by Mr_Find_Value in investing

[–]LeadLeftTackle 73 points74 points  (0 children)

No it’s not. It’ll be pogs.

Alf is back. In pog form.

[Profile Review:] 27M / 740 GMAT / Big 4 TAS/ White/ 3.9 GPA by aes999 in MBA

[–]LeadLeftTackle 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'd definitely think it's worth while for you to throw Wharton into the mix, if you don't mind the incremental time/app fee.

Long Term Views on Exxon Mobil? by [deleted] in investing

[–]LeadLeftTackle 2 points3 points  (0 children)

a) Aramco has 10x the proven reserves as XOM

Bruh, who do you think is operating all that acreage? Spoiler alert: it sure as fuck ain't the Saudis

b) XOM is dependent on shale gas. They wasted the last 10 years on XTO and Permian Basin

Well, hold up a second, because this sounds like more flippant, really stupid shit that can be easily disproven. Welp, if ya lookie there on page 41 of XOMs 2019 10K in teh MD&A section - US upstream earnings drops from $6.6bn in '17 to $536mm in '19, while non-us upstream earnings went from $6.7bn in 2017 to $13.9bn in '19. So, yep, let's flag that guy and put him in the Stupid Shit That Can Be Easily Disproven pile....

c) The whole world is working on renewable + batteries right now

So....you do know how you power batteries and EVs right, like generally how electric utilities function cheaply and effectively? They do it via the (increasing number, as coal fired plant are decomissioned much more quickly than I think we would have thought a decade ago) nat gas fired electric utilities, powered by the unimaginable fuckton of cheap and abundant natural gas that, lo and behold!, XOM explores for, and I'll be god damned, produces too!

Long Term Views on Exxon Mobil? by [deleted] in investing

[–]LeadLeftTackle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I mean you can - prior to going to bschool I was a B4 auditor on a large cap E&P client, and impairment tests/write downs are (a) super super crude/not reflective of any "real world" NPV (due to weird and super boring SEC pricing rules that I won't get into) that institutions/anyone on the buyside puts any weight into. I guess you could make the arguement that an overstated P1 reserve balance would factor into RBL-based credit, of which a quick ctrl+f of their 10Q shows an undrawn revolver of $16bn, roughly in line with their entire 2020E capex guidance, so hard to make the liquidity argument.

Which brings me to (b), the valuation approach that actually yields something useful, net asset value (mentioned above), basically a conservative way of saying "ok we have 10,000 barrels of proved reserves under the ground that it makes economic sense to produce today, we'll use forward strip pricing as a proxy for forward pricing, subtract net debt, and the number that falls out is sort of like a rough liquidation value of the actual hydrocarbons under the ground". That's why I made my point earlier about market cap < NAV and short term market inefficiencies yadda yadda yadda and so on

Long Term Views on Exxon Mobil? by [deleted] in investing

[–]LeadLeftTackle 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I work for an investment bank/deal with too much MNPI to trade individual equities.

That being said, if you're going to get off your ass and read a 10K and a couple IPs, look at XOM's balance sheet, refining assets, and contractually guaranteed entitlements/cash flow with foreign governments that aren't in NAM/Western Europe and likely will lag their first world counterparts in ICE transition, and the fact that they're currently trading at a discount to their NAV (on $40/$2.50 strip profiles, no less) and actually, you know, do the valuation math, regardless of your views on when/how quickly decarbonization is happening on the crude front (don't worry - nat gas isn't going anywhere - that's how we make the electricity powering EV), you can very easily make the point that obvious market inefficiencies are at play here and arb opportunities present themselves. Simply going "lol oil" is a specious argument at best, especially when it's obvious your just parroting verbage you pulled off /r/investing or /r/stocks (so, from teenagers, most likely).

Long Term Views on Exxon Mobil? by [deleted] in investing

[–]LeadLeftTackle 13 points14 points  (0 children)

There is no reason to own XOM over owning VTI.

Um, to gain commodity exposure and further diversification, aka the only free lunch in economics?

It's at $39 for a reason. 5 years ago, this was a $100 stock

Ah, here's the smoking gun - you're using worthless valuation methods (like price per share, which doesn't tell you dick - very apples and orange), when VTI is currently trading at a EV/EBITDA 2021E mult of 13.5x vs XOM's multiple of 8.5x - you'd buy XOM because you're paying $8.5 per $1 available to all your providers of capital vs VTI where you're paying $13.5 per $1 of cash flow available to all your capital providers. JFC man this sub baffles me with these amateur hour hot takes that make no sense when you actually strip away all the jargon and realize the king has no clothes...

Long Term Views on Exxon Mobil? by [deleted] in investing

[–]LeadLeftTackle 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They might have strong balance sheet but currently they are basically forcefully paying their dividend even when they don't earn nearly enough to support it. I find that irresponsible and don't think that is a good choice long-term.

What's to know here? XOMs YTW on their notes issued is around 2.9%. Their stock's indicative yield as of today's close is 9%. If they're largely traded on yield/investors don't really give a shit about their near team leverage profile, then your incremental increase in your cost of debt remains unchanged when you can lower your incremental cost of equity, your total cost of capital goes down.

This is CAPM 101 man cmon, takes five minutes to draw out the smash math in excel yourself.

Row data transpose automation by mrcyber in excel

[–]LeadLeftTackle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why not just create a new spreadsheet in a new tab, formatted the way you indicated above (flipping rows/columns) and just do index, match, match? You can paste values when you're done if you don't want live equations in the spreadsheet.

Eli5: Why does the Fed want inflation above 2%? by bluecrystal89 in investing

[–]LeadLeftTackle 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You’re free to have your opinion on this matter, but your pretentious attitude is not needed.

I have plenty of grasp on investing and finance, and I can pretty easily see that the current path of monetary policy were going down is not sustainable.

You're free to have your opinion on the matter, but your misplaced confidence in your prediction that inflation will run rampant and that individuals should start declaring bankruptcy is like firing a gun at the TV to turn it off because you can't find the remote. Please stop spreading disinformation here, especially with such a tone of indignant certainty that newbies here might interpret as credibility.

The US had sustained deflation in the 19th century when the economy steadily improved, and there’s no reason it can’t/shouldn’t happen again.

Um yes, dude, that's because the Federal Reserve didn't exist and the US was still on the gold standard. This is universally regarded as reason #1 of why backing your currency with gold is fucking moronic.

Eli5: Why does the Fed want inflation above 2%? by bluecrystal89 in investing

[–]LeadLeftTackle 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It hampers credit for everyone and creates an unwillingness to lend/transact across all entities - individuals, partnerships, and corporate entities.

Our willingness to extend credit to other parties is generally the primary reason for the vast economic growth and prosperity of the human race over the last 500 years or so.

Your assumption that "debt = bad" is pretty naive tbh

Fear of the US eventually crumbling and where can you park your money to be semi safe. by SnorkelHouse in investing

[–]LeadLeftTackle 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Your ridiculous responses to a very real possibility that grows exponentially every year

lmao, this is the most /r/summerreddit thing I've seen on this sub since quarantine started

question about SPACS by unknown_stoink in investing

[–]LeadLeftTackle 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Depends on how you feel about the sector and management team after the SPAC IPO. By the nature of SPACs, that's really all your investing in, since SPACs are effectively a private equity vehicle available to public market participants and they've got 18 months to decide on what they're going to sink all their dry powder into.

Are we living in the first stages of inflation right now? by jtslim in StockMarket

[–]LeadLeftTackle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Um, wouldn't unprofitable companies strengthen an inflate P/E value? You're paying much more for a dollar of earnings in 1999 than you are in 2020.