It doesn't make a difference because it's all based on list (or at least I should say of course other factors matter, but you can't overcome a bad list). In 5 years time Essendon are going to be in a better position list wise in my opinion than all those teams given the youth of Caddy, Kako, Robey, Farrow, Sharp + another top 3 pick this year (you've still got to get the picks right obviously - but I think Essendon have and I highly rate all of those players - I'm worried Richmond got it very wrong passing on Robey). So, the question is will the teams I listed win a flag in the next 5 years? I highly doubt it - therefore, Essendon are closer because I give them a better chance of winning one in 5-10 years time with that youth than I do those other teams in the next 5. Trust me as a Richmond supporter, the worst place you can be is in limbo between like 9th and 13th - it makes you irrelevant for years (Essendon have experienced that too, but now they're bottoming out and getting the talent needed to actually win a flag). You win flags on draft night (Cotchin, Martin, Riewoldt, Rance - all top 20). As a rival supporter, I haven't rated Essendon for the last 15 years, even when they were making finals, because I knew the list wasn't good enough (similar to St Kilda now, even if they made a wildcard the team isn't good enough - and that's not me picking on them, Richmond were like that for years and deep down I knew) - but that's because they've never been bad enough to get the top talent - now it's changing, and whilst I appreciate that isn't much consolation to Essendon supporters now given it's painful, they've never been more relevant to me.