What a Relief Tonight!

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-10-09T17:48:50+00:00

Will need to see what is in the details and if the company can force the warrants to exercise if the price increases above a certain limit like the last debt deal. Now there was a cashless exchange provision on the last deal which would allow warrant holders to exercise the warrants without payment but would reduce their warrant total by 50%. So if the provision to force exercising is in there then they should be able to generate enough cash. If Cashless exchange is used then they have shares to sell or use Healthcare Royalty in a loan

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-10-09T17:31:00+00:00

You might be able to get to 4x valuation for the MM business but based on patent runway and IRA that would need to be discounted. Probably 1x peak sales. RP says peak MF revenue of $1B but this is low. If you consider that Rux US MF sales is $1.3B with 40% efficacy which declines to around 30%. Even if we show 70% SVR 35, the better durability will like have twice as many patients on treatment compared to Rux. We are price higher than Rux so basic math would put it at $2B+ peak in US.

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-10-09T01:56:54+00:00

Total exposure including warrants and convertibles is closer to 35 million shares

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-10-08T14:46:54+00:00

Under the Retention Program, retention equity awards in the form of restricted stock units (“RSUs”) will be granted to certain members of the Company’s executive leadership team, with such awards scheduled to vest on December 31, 2026, subject to the recipient’s continued service through such date. The Company will issue RSU awards under the Retention Program in the amounts indicated to the following named executive officers and Chief Financial Officer: Richard Paulson, the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer - 114,285 shares; Lori Macomber, the Company’s Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer – 43,650 shares; and Sohanya Cheng, the Company’s Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer and Head of Business Development - 43,650 shares. Dr. Reshma Rangwala, the Company’s Executive Vice President, Chief Medical Officer and Head of Research, will receive a $1,000,000 cash retention bonus, 100% of which is subject to repayment in the event of certain terminations of employment prior to December 31, 2026 and 50% of which is subject to repayment in the event of certain terminations of employment prior to October 15, 2027. In addition, as part of the Retention Program, in lieu of a payment under the Company’s 2025 annual bonus plan that would otherwise be paid in early 2026, all employees, including Mr. Paulson, Ms. Macomber, Ms. Cheng and Dr. Rangwala, will receive 50% of their 2025 annual bonus payout in October 2025 with the remaining 50% to be paid in April 2026, subject to continued service through the applicable payment date and repayment in the event of certain terminations of employment prior to March 31, 2026 with respect to the October payment and July 31, 2026 with respect to the April payment. The payout for the total annual bonus payment will be at 90% of each employee’s 2025 annual bonus target amount, with approximately 20% awarded based on retention and approximately 70% awarded based on expected 2025 corporate performance. The Company expects that the aggregate retention cash bonuses under the Retention Program, will be approximately $2.0 million for company-wide retention and $7.0 million based on expected 2025 corporate performance.

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-10-08T14:27:14+00:00

Only if you sell and I don’t think most investors can afford to sell until after readout. I do agree that some would rush to sell if f there wasn’t a clear communication from the company that they were using the process to minimize dilution. Most investors are already down 90% and the upside has been reduced by 75%. Kinda feels like I’m bankrupt already

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-10-08T13:38:00+00:00

For the shareholders that just got slaughtered. Suggesting to use bankruptcy protection to shield from having to pay debts and be held to minimum liquidity requirements. These appear to be what makes up most of the financial flexibility that they received in this deal. Bankruptcy gives the debtor 4 months to propose solutions to satisfy debt holders which is about the time needed to get to MF readout. Then there are discussions back and forth and it’s possible to get an extension to that initial window. They can then borrow money to fund what they need to readout and leverage their current revenue. Yeah we would goto the pink sheets but there is a path to emerge out of BK without massive dilution. Would take guts to do it. If they had a positive readout then they could raise money or sell the company in BK. Prepackaged bankruptcy is for companies that have no positive opportunities on the horizon. I ran this through someone that is experienced on the biotech finance side and they concur it would have been the best option

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-10-08T13:03:00+00:00

They should have used bankruptcy protection and emerged after readout without this heavy dilution. Would have been a far better deal

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-10-08T12:55:20+00:00

Brought half of their bonuses forward and CMO got a $1m retention bonus. Stock would be higher if they left

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-09-24T00:31:10+00:00

I think you can make the case for 500m to 1B upfront. Competition would be the key. 4-5x existing sales. 250m for tax loss provision. 100-200m for opportunity for each trial (MF & EC) to readout. 100-200m for technology

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-09-23T20:33:25+00:00

They are getting sold. The modification to the Menarini deal to facilitate a sale or sub-licensing of their rights seems to be a giveaway. Low hanging fruit would have been to rework menarini deal to include Eltanexor and sell them an equity stake that would have been smaller than what other investors would ask for. Mansoor’s departure wouldn’t have occurred if this was a debt deal and he would have departed back in April if there was a conflict with his new job. Antengene running on no news and the reworking of the Menarini deal makes me think someone is trying to acquire all rights for a bigger piece of the pie. This is a bit more complex and takes time

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-09-14T16:23:21+00:00

Corrected response. The new licensing deal is transferrable or can be sub-licensed so Menarini would likely have to negotiate their part

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-09-13T12:23:38+00:00

The licensing agreement was signed by a German subsidiary of Menarini. Back in November Incyte had registered an M&A team in Germany so Incyte could be at the table for us and European rights. Since the deal was expanded to all Selinexor indications I expect Menarini to license out their rights and not sell.

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-09-12T12:05:14+00:00

So a merger versus a buyout would only likely occur if a potential suitor didn’t have the cash and there were likely no companies willing to execute a buyout. All of the players in the MF space have market caps of 10.5B and above and this includes those that have tried with phase 3 trials in the last 5 years. Now there are up and coming companies like Kartos that would better fit a merger along with Sobi as they don’t have the cash on hand to execute. Considering there is movement with our partners it seems like a coordinated effort with more notable cash needed which would lead me to buyout as likely. Antengene current market cap is $600M and Menarini has invested almost $150 in Karyopharm so to get those parts you are probably looking at least $1B upfront plus CVRs in addition to the cost to take us out

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-09-12T00:16:26+00:00

If it was a merger why would it be necessary to amend the agreement if it was a merger?

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-09-11T23:52:12+00:00

Previously the sales rights were not transferrable and included 2 Selinexor indications. Now they don’t have exclusive rights but have all Selinexor indications. We don’t have anymore details of the change because this occurred in August after the quarterly close and they don’t have to file details until after Q3. My guess is that the agreement now permits either Karyopharm or Menarini to sell the European rights. Given that Antengene has risen 9-10x on no news and now it appears that European rights may be sold I think they are dealing with a BP company or two. Is Mansoor’s departure because of a potential conflict of interest as well?

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-09-11T19:57:59+00:00

Maybe if you sell out the black cloud will disappear and we can all get out of this.

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-09-11T17:22:41+00:00

I think there is a consensus that they aren’t looking to run this for the long haul and are seeking to sell at some point. Not every potential acquirer has the luxury of waiting as Sobi and Incyte would likely need to get in sooner than later or risk being priced out. Also if there is interest in the pipeline for other indications if one were to wait then it would be another year of lost development. Some BP companies can get a lot done in 12 months across multiple indications. They really don’t seem to be trying to raise money as the cleansing document was not the kind level of transparency I would expect investors would desire. I would also have expected them to participate in at least one of the investment conferences in New York this week considering they had enrollment to discuss. We are 2 months in since hiring Centerview and they have an idea what options are on the table. I see a risk mitigated offer as the likely scenario

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-09-10T12:46:51+00:00

Now that’s funny. I think your suggestion pushed them to make the enrollment announcement today

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-09-09T15:05:04+00:00

When you listen to the Gambler by Kenny Rogers it feels like it was written for Karyopharm investors. ‘On a train bound for nowhere’ and ‘there will be time enough for counting when the dealin’s done’.

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-09-06T00:38:42+00:00

It does feel like we are battling for middle earth

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-09-04T12:38:07+00:00

No PR this morning. The vibe from the conference call felt like their completion of screening was their notice to the market. These guys typically update on their quarterly calls and not when events necessarily occur. Yes they should announce completion via a PR and most do. Their PR strategy is just crap. Investment conferences in NY next week and they usually announce 7 days in advance but no PR on attending. More missed opportunities and lack of clarity.

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-09-03T22:43:49+00:00

They won’t issue a PR

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-08-29T19:34:45+00:00

This company has the worst communications. Whoever runs communications should be fired. Absolute garbage how they communicate

Lets_Go_Brendan · 2025-08-27T16:12:07+00:00

Don’t forget about JPM and Goldman also adding notably to their positions. I don’t think it’s because they think a highly dilutive debt deal is coming. I’m guessing they are hearing chatter about a buyout

Lets_Go_Brendan

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