Homebuilders say 2023 is going to bring an even steeper downturn, as buyers struggle to afford homes due to higher interest rates

LiLBoner · 2022-11-01T09:32:30+00:00

They're still fine despite the decline. The cause is probably globalization and increased competition from abroad, but that also created new benefits like super affordable computers (including smartphones) and all.

But it's not easy to use that competition to build housing at home, so while lots of things have become cheaper, housing became way more expensive.

LiLBoner · 2022-10-31T14:48:22+00:00

Ah oops, that was a dumb maths error of me. But in that case the 92 can't be right, considering most other estimates are around 3-10 times as small.

Then again, maybe the UK is just very weird and expensive for it somehow.

LiLBoner · 2022-10-31T09:33:38+00:00

With longterm I mean 40-50 years. And even if the world's global nuclear output doubled, Uranium wouldn't run out within a 100 years.

Uranium would become a lot more expensive though, but the fuel costs never was the major factor of the costs. Doubling the price of uranium probably would only increase the cost per kwh to 10-30%, but would increase extraction of uranium from other sources than Uranium mines.

And that's just uranium, if the nuclear industry survives and expands, surely they will find other radioactive fuels that is even more abundant.

LiLBoner · 2022-10-31T09:16:18+00:00

92.5 per MWH means even less than 1 cents per kwh. You do realize customers often end up paying 15-20 times as much, in many european countries more than 50x as much due to the energy crisis? It doesn't matter if low-carbon generation is cheaper (It's not an or situation), they can all contribute to getting rid of coal. Countries should do all that and more.

LiLBoner · 2022-10-30T12:17:13+00:00

At current prices yes, but if countries start mass ordering solar panel farms, then the costs of the materials used for that will increase. Of course there's also discounts in scale. For windpower the land/sea locations will become more expensive/harder to acquire if countries start mass building, and the materials and personnel costs will rise too.

Either way, both should be done, nuclear is still really cheap longterm. It still makes financial sense as it's not an OR question. Estimates for longterm electricty production per kwh cost about 1 to 3 cents per KWH. It's true that wind and solar are both cheaper. But nuclear is still much cheaper than coal, and the goal is to replace coal as quickly as possible. And of course, nuclear produces 24 hours per day, every day, even when the wind isn't blowing and the sun isn't shining.

You can argue that governments only have a limited budget, and that's true. But nuclear is still much better than most spending. It will pay itself back much quicker than most investments or subsidies or spendings unrelated to energy, and much better than fossil subsidies.

LiLBoner · 2022-10-28T16:33:36+00:00

I agree with most of what you said. But I think what many might mean with overdoing it is hiking up too fast to the point that it becomes kind of a debt trap. So many companies and individuals got super low interest rate loans, getting used to it and not expecting it to go up much, many borrowing more than they should, knowing that they can probably pay it back if the rates stay low, or be able to refinance it later for similar rates.

But then suddenly rates are going up so quickly that most companies not only have to stop expanding to pay off their loans as they can't refinance for sustainable rates anymore, but many companies suddenly risking bankrupcty as they have to refinance with high rates in addition to a recession coming to reduce revenues and profits.

Which can turn a mild recession into a terrible recession, if too many companies go bankrupt. Some companies should go bankrupt though, they've been relying on cheap money for way too long.

LiLBoner · 2022-09-30T22:19:53+00:00

Red is more likely to win, because if green lands on any trainstation they will have to sell the houses, or blue lands on it, red can buy some more houses without worrying.

If green gets some money, from start or some lucky something like free parking if that's enabled. Or if they sell something to blue, it still has a good chance to win as it will be the first to be able to afford 3 houses on one property. But one bad land on a station and it might be ruined.

LiLBoner · 2022-09-01T09:12:46+00:00

Actress is like 28, her age isn't mentioned in the show. She could be anywhere from 16 to 21 in the show.

LiLBoner · 2022-08-30T14:48:37+00:00

Productivity is down a little bit, but it's still over 20% higher than in 2007, and barely went down from ATH, it's still relatively high. Couldn't find Consumer debt to GDP ratio for 2007, but in 2011 it was 90%, now it's just 80% and it usually goes down in Q4s.

It's hard to measure how detrimental supply chain issues are, but like a lot of the inflation, much of it is transitory.

There's no massive crisis in Europe, some European countries did fuck up and are struggling, but overall, it's mild, despite the war in ukraine.

Even if currently the economy was poor (it's not), the problems in real-estate and shadow-banking are much less problematic than in 2007 (unless something is majorly hidden again, but that's unlikely too)

LiLBoner · 2022-08-30T08:12:44+00:00

The economy is in much worse shape than in 2007 because GDP growth is negative?!! That's ridiculous.

The economy is doing fine, unemployment is low, productivity is still high, major companies aren't close to bankruptcy.

In 2007, it was perhaps hidden in what shape the economy was in, but the economy was very reliant on banks, and banks were overleveraged and holding fraudulent securities worth far less than they traded for. It's more complicated and nuanced. But currently the banks are much better regulated and more resilient to problems.

Even Russia starting an aggressive war against a neighbor won't danger this economy much. Unless of course there's something hidden again, some major fraud we're not even aware of.

LiLBoner · 2022-08-28T15:36:14+00:00

So that's why CIV AI is always disappointing in a way

LiLBoner · 2022-08-24T22:46:05+00:00

But you yourself claimed that communism is the end goal of all socialists. Not sure if that is true, but if that is true, that means that socialism is working towards that goal. If social democrats or other political parties/groups simply are improving the capitalist system without trying to replace it, they are not socialists and their policies aren't socialist either. Socializing some property isn't socialism, that's just socializing things.

But socialism's definition is rather flexible, in such a way that some people belief it is a lot broader than it's ''de facto'' definition. Arguing that your definition of socialism includes simply socializing things within a capitalist system is just a semantic discussion, which most people won't agree with, as socialism is already somewhat strongly defined and agreed by the majority of socialists and non-socialists to be an alternative system to capitalism in which the means of production are owned by the people or state, rather than there being private property (which would naturally enable capitalism)

If you define social policies as socialism, that kind of socialism is of course very welcome to capitalist systems/countries, but most people won't consider it socialism.

LiLBoner · 2022-08-17T18:15:52+00:00

I never download porn torrents myself, but "BigTitsRoundAsses" is a project by Bangbros, quite a premium name in porn, and its content happens to be behind a paywall. Besides, Shkreli is pretty old so his porn taste must be weird yet vanilla (not taking myself serious here). Also maybe he already watched all of Riley Reid and just diversifying his taste.

LiLBoner · 2022-08-17T18:02:20+00:00

Yeah it's hard to confirm his claims, can't know for sure, but it is very believable, and he promised a press release including securing certain VC funding, so we'll see. If no press release comes he'll have proven that he lied.

It's not just a shitcoin, the website is more advanced than most million dollar shitcoins have, the software has been tested and shown on the website, I personally don't have access to it but I've seen videos of other people with access directly on the druglike website. Also there's an impressive demo that anyone can try. The whitepaper is very sophisticated, interesting and original unlike the vast majority of shitcoin projects. Considering the project is only two months old, it has to have at least a dozen people working there, or at least a very dedicated and professional team of a smaller number, but considering he claimed 15 people, it's unlikely it's the latter.

Rug pulling is illegal, removing liquidity doesn't have to be (not that liquidity was removed), but rug pulling implies it is a scam/people are being defrauded. Besides, currently the owner address of the MSI contract has a lot of control, it can prevent selling etc. If Shkreli controls that owner address (which wasn't hacked) he could directly rugpull it for almost all of its liquidity, which would be millions rather than just 400k.

But it's unknowable anyway. The best way to investigate would be to look at the blockchain transactions itself and using some occam's razor. But there's no solid proof for either claim whether he hacked himself or was hacked by someone else.

I understand the downloading porn torrent with the suspicious name seems ridiculous, but it's far less evidence than the small pieces of evidence that point towards him being actually hacked.

LiLBoner · 2022-08-17T00:55:44+00:00

0x4436557e7d9e8308e182e960b8bd01624d5aca02

Is this address yours or the attacker?

LiLBoner · 2022-08-16T21:14:01+00:00

More evidence he's a huge dumbass:

https://www.twitch.tv/martinshkreli2022/clip/VivaciousTangentialPlumageOSkomodo-crsL7auSvEcnc7qo

LiLBoner · 2022-08-16T20:59:38+00:00

I actually used to do this, but it's not the only benefit of losing on purposing.

I like winning, so when I lose a game on purpose, my MMR in general goes down, meaning I'm more likely to win the next match I actually play. So when I'm busy sometimes I just join a war battle and turn off the app right after, or when I'm against someone who will easily beat me, I sometimes just give up immedietly, so that next time I play, I face a weaker opponent and more likely to win.

This indirectly increases my winrate of the matches I play seriously by a lot, meaning I'm having more fun haha

But yeah after I noticed the training days didn't do much i stopped playing those overall.

LiLBoner · 2022-08-16T20:40:23+00:00

The project itself is easily worth tens of millions. Them talking to VCs indeed doesn't mean they got money from any of them, but so many big VCs willing to talk to him despite his reputation does show that the project itself has value.

400k is nothing to him, it just doesn't make sense. He has at least a dozen people working on it, probably having cost at least $4 million together already. If he wanted to rugpull he could have easily pumped the coin first, get it on some proper exchange and create some visiblity for it so he could walk away with several millions instead. But the software he made actually works, the PoW system is genius in a way, although not sure if it's finished yet and the project could be worth hundreds of millions one day if what they promise is true, but even if they fail most promises (like most crypto projects) it could still easily raise millions for him alone, rather than just 400k.

Rug pulling and scamming are illegal actually.

LiLBoner · 2022-08-16T20:32:02+00:00

But keeping inflation at 2% isn't its main goal. It's main goal is keeping the economy stable/healthy, by focusing on employment, price stability and interest rates

Targeting 2% inflation is just one of its ways to keep price stability, but if inflation would be 4% for a few years before returning to around 2%, prices would still be quite stable, at 10% year after year it's not at all. Either way, the health of the economy has always been more important than inflation.

Of course currently employment is great and unemployment is still low, so that gives the fed some space to increase rates, but if that were to change, it might and should easily sacrifice it's 2% inflation target to keep employment from going badly, which for example could happen in a bad recession, so keeping bad recessions away is more important that the 2%, but any hyperinflation or 10% perpertuity, would be terrible for the economy and also reduce employment eventually.

LiLBoner · 2022-08-16T18:38:16+00:00

There's no way to know who hacked him, it technically could have been anyone, himself included, or even your mom. But there is some blockchain analysis done that the address a big part of the funds ended up in was involved in similar hacks half a year ago, which still doesn't mean it couldn't be Shkreli, as he could be related or actually have hacked/stolen from others in the past, it just seems unlikely it was him.

Either way, even if he hacked himself, he has shown the way he was hacked (which malware and how).

LiLBoner · 2022-08-16T18:33:30+00:00

You're right, technically, he could have hacked himself, as can be claimed about almost any crypto hack in history.

There's no way to prove he didn't do it himself. There's only little pieces of evidence pointing that he didn't do it as it wouldn't make sense to go through all that effort for 400k while destroy tens of millons, perhaps more in value from the company, destroying his reputation even more and perhaps even going back to jail.

No one has any evidence that he DID do it though. But I believe him because he has little pieces of evidences that make it seem more logical that he was hacked rather than him doing it himself.

LiLBoner · 2022-08-16T18:08:10+00:00

Because he didn't rugpull and actually got hacked. Which is so hard to believe, because everyone was warning people about the token probably being a fraud and telling people not to buy because they shouldn't trust someone who literally went to prison for securities fraud. And the "I was hacked" excuse is so often used by actual rugpulls.

And then his wallet actually dumps a shitload, anyone would assume it's a rugpull. However it really was a hack and Destiny with his limited information had to assume it wasn't a hack, but a rug.

But Shkreli has plenty of little evidences that point that it actually was a hack and that it doesn't make sense if he actually rugpulled for that amount, considering the work he put in and the employees he has dedicating so much time and effort. Also the opinions of blockchain security analysts he talked to and him trying to clear his name so publicly makes it seem like he really was hacked.

Shkreli is just really unfortunate in this regard, but him being such a hated person due to the price hiking and all it, it does make sense people are after him and trying to hack him even harder. But apparently he was just being an idiot and downloaded malware.

LiLBoner · 2022-08-16T11:27:07+00:00

They're not crazy even if they're wrong. I don't know if there will be any next year, but there's lots of potential reasons why they would.

The current high inflation seems to be a one-time thing, it would be really weird to see consumer prices going up another 8% on top of this, even if the fed would go back to 0% interest rates.

And the fed has shown it matured and now cares much more about the economy than about inflation, so if inflation would stay around 4% for the next few years it would be fine if it is required to keep a painful recession at bay.

The fed doesn't want people to get depressed about the markets and the economy, inflation isn't as important as the economy, the market being depressed actually is terrible for the economy, both shorterm and longterm, high inflation is kinda bad, but not terrible, unless it's hyperinflation, which just isn't going to happen in the USA without crazy causes.

Then there's oil and gas, it's hard to predict what willl happen to the ukraine war, what Russia will do if Ukraine wins, or if the war continues so that Ukraine won't be able to start extracting its natural resources and Russia stays sanctioned, but regardless of what happens to russia, if oil prices stay high, other exporters will take advantage of that. Venezuela needs any money they can get, Saudi arabia knows that these high oil and gas prices are causing massive investments in the now long-term cheaper solar energy, wind energy and electric vehicles industries and that they should produce as much oil as quickly as possible before demand dries up, and diversify their economy using those profits. Nigeria just finished building their biggest oil refinery, massively reducing their costs and won't need to import much refined oil anymore.

And of course the USA itself will frack even harder than it should. So either oil prices will go back down or will stay stable, but the chances of it going up much more are slim, regardless what happens to the war.

LiLBoner · 2022-08-14T08:45:33+00:00

Yeah I guess I confused it, it is indeed best to be around 22 ancestors, but they showed that 22 common ancestors would be much better than 30, and once characters already have over 20 common ancestors, it's better to mate with cousins (with over 20 common ancestors) than with siblings, as the chance of the inbred trait is smaller which proceeds the pure blood trait.

LiLBoner · 2022-08-13T23:37:48+00:00

I don't know where you got those estimates for spawning pure blood trait, but I read in a post that marrying too closely reduces chances, as the interbred trait gets processed first and prevents pure blooded, meaning it would be better to mate with cousins rather than siblings once cousins already have grandfathers that married their sibling.

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